Posted on November 16, 2022
But as they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same. And that is the case with the Chiefs still occupying the top spot.
There has been some movement behind them. There is a new team at number two and number five, although neither is a monumental change.
It seems like things have been fully fleshed out at this point in the west. We know which teams are good, which teams are bad, and which teams are right in the middle.
So, now that we have that all sorted out, it’s time to do a Super Bowl check-in.
What is a Super Bowl check-in, you may ask? It’s simple.
I’m going to check in on the Super Bowl odds of each team in the west and compare them to where they sat before the season. And then I will evaluate whether those odds are good, bad, or ignorable.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2-0)
Current SB Odds: +500 (5/1)
Preseason SB Odds: +950 (9.5/1)
Kansas City may now be considered the best team in the entire NFL after what the Bills and Eagles did this week, so it is a shoo-in for the number one spot in the west.
The Chiefs still don’t possess the best Super Bowl odds (they’re just a bit behind the Bills) but they have shot up the books to nearly half of where they sat before the season.
The Chiefs have the best quarterback, and maybe player, in the game in Patrick Mahomes, the best tight end in Travis Kelce, and arguably the best head coach in Andy Reid.
Even when the other aspects of the team are underwhelming, those three are enough to make this team as dangerous as any.
This team may be the best bet of any to win the Super Bowl.
They have had success in the playoffs and have won the championship before.
A Kansas City Super Bowl bet may not have the same value as it did a few months ago but now is as good of a time as any to buy in because those odds are only going to keep getting shorter.
2. San Francisco 49ers (5-4-0)
Current SB Odds: +800 (8/1)
Preseason SB Odds: +1600 (16/1)
Their Super Bowl odds are currently the fourth-best in the league and second to only the Eagles in the conference. That is a lot of faith in a team that isn’t even in first place in their division.
But it’s hard to blame people for believing in San Francisco. When the 49ers are on, they are one of the scariest teams in the league.
They demonstrated that on Sunday when they beat the Chargers 22-16. It wasn’t a dominant win, but they got the job done.
More wins like the one on Sunday will go a long way toward San Francisco making a Super Bowl run.
But with the way the defense is playing, as one of the best in the league, and the group of playmakers on offense, the 49ers are definitely capable of making a run.
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-4-0)
Current SB Odds: +5000 (50/1)
Preseason SB Odds: +13000 (130/1)
This team was written off at the start of the season but that didn’t stop them from reeling off a fantastic start. Unfortunately, that start didn’t continue on Sunday when they lost 21-16 to the Buccaneers in Germany.
That game may be indicative of what oddsmakers see in Seattle, and what leads to it having just the 13th-best Super Bowl odds despite currently being seeded third in the conference.
The Seahawks have surged up in odds after having the 29th-best odds in the preseason, thanks in large part to the incredible play of quarterback Geno Smith.
But in reality, this is a very young team that is not yet ready to compete. If Seattle does end up making the playoffs it would be a fun story, but one unlikely to result in anything more than a brief appearance.
That doesn’t take away from what Smith, rookie running back Kenneth Walker, and outside linebacker Uchenna Nwosu are doing this season, which is being one of 2022’s most surprising teams.
4. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4-0)
Current SB Odds: +3400 (34/1)
Preseason SB Odds: +1600 (16/1)
Losing to the 49ers on Sunday Night Football 22-16 certainly didn’t help the Chargers make any sort of case that they should be taken seriously as Super Bowl contenders.
They were expected to be competing with the Chiefs for the AFC West crown, not battling the Jets and Patriots for a wild card spot.
But, hypothetically, if someone wanted to find a team with some long odds capable of winning it all, the Chargers wouldn’t be the worst option.
The players that caused them to have such high expectations in the first place are almost all still there.
Quarterback Justin Herbert, running back Austin Ekeler, outside linebacker Khalil Mack, and safety Derwin James are still at or near the top of their respective positions.
The problem for the Chargers is health, which has definitely been covered in these rankings before.
If healthy, the Chargers can be a threat in the playoffs, But nothing about their current injury situation, nor the way they are trending in the injury department, suggests that they will be anything but unhealthy down the stretch.
5. Arizona Cardinals (4-6-0)
Current SB Odds: +15000 (150/1)
Preseason SB Odds: +3000 (30/1)
Nobody trusts Arizona to maintain good play down the stretch and into the playoffs, there is no precedent of it doing so.
But what the Cardinals have learned this year is that you can’t have a late-season collapse and awful playoff performance if you don’t play well in the first half of the season.
They may still be technically alive in the playoff race, but nobody is expecting that to happen. Not even a 27-17 win over the Rams can change that.
It’s not a good sign when your offense arguably looks better with the backup quarterback under center, which was the case on Sunday when Colt McCoy filled in for Kyler Murray.
This team is not stable, and they certainly are not good.
The Cardinals could rack up some wins through the rest of the year and end up with an admirable record, but that is about as far as they are capable of going this season.
6. Los Angeles Rams (3-6-0)
Current SB Odds: +14000 (140/1)
Preseason SB Odds: +1100 (11/1)
They lost to the Cardinals 27-17 on Sunday with backup quarterback John Wolford leading the way.
But that wasn’t the worst news.
That would be that star wide receiver Cooper Kupp suffered an ankle injury toward the end of the game and is now on the IR.
The Rams’ were justifiably a Super Bowl favorite entering the year. They had just won the whole thing the year before, so them having the fourth-best odds made sense.
Just the same, them having the 18th-best Super Bowl odds, behind teams such as the Jets, Commanders, and Browns, also makes sense.
Los Angeles is built on the backs of its stars. And while some of those stars, such as Kupp, defensive tackle Aaron Donald, and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, have played well, others have not.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford has taken a huge step back this season, he has as many interceptions as he does touchdowns, and plenty of other members on the offense haven’t played their best.
The Rams are done this year, as sad as it is to say. They will always have the 2021 Lombardi Trophy to justify their anti-draft pick stance, but 2022 may be that ideology finally getting some revenge.
7. Denver Broncos (3-6-0)
Current SB Odds: +18000 (180/1)
Preseason SB Odds: +1700 (17/1)
The Broncos had the eighth-best odds to win the Super Bowl before the season. Call that the Russell Wilson effect. They now have the 24th-best odds. Call that the new Russell Wilson effect.
This season has not gone how Denver, or really anyone else, expected. That was evidenced by a 17-10 loss to the Titans on Sunday that was very winnable, yet still ended up going down as a loss.
It is a shame that the Broncos are so bad this year because there are some very good players on this team, particularly a whole defense full of them, but that just isn’t going to make a difference.
Some of the reasons the Broncos have been struggling are out of their control.
Running back JaVonte Williams going down with a season-ending injury was a huge blow. As were injuries to wide receiver Tim Patrick, outside linebacker Randy Gregory, and several offensive linemen.
It will be interesting to see how the sportsbooks view the Broncos next year because the talent is all there to be able to compete, they just haven’t put it together yet.
But, unfortunately, when you’re already talking about next year, it means this year is going poorly, and that is certainly the case with the Broncos.
8. Las Vegas Raiders ((2-7-0)
Current SB Odds: +31000 (310/1)
Preseason SB Odds: +4000 (40/1)
The Raiders belong in that group this year. If there was any doubt about that before this week, a 25-20 loss to the Colts, a team that had just fired its coach and hired an interim with no experience, has solidified their placement.
Las Vegas was viewed as a long shot to win the Super Bowl this year, just the 19th-best odds before the season, but it wasn’t supposed to be this bad.
The Raiders did make the playoffs last year and added one of the best wide receivers in the game when they traded for Davante Adams.
But nothing has gone right for them. They started out the season losing several close games, and it has just gone downhill ever since.
There is no use in even trying to contextualize the Raiders’ current Super Bowl odds. Despite being located in the Mecca of gambling, the sportsbooks can’t get behind this team.
If you were planning on literally setting fire to some money at some point in the near future then you might as well bet on the Raiders to win the Super Bowl.
You’re still going to lose your money, but at least this way there is a chance something good can happen.
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