UCLA at Utah

Thursday, January 11
6:00 pm PT, ESPN2

Struggling through one of their worst seasons of the past two decades, the Bruins head to Salt Lake City for a difficult road test.

The Utes are looking to bounce back after getting swept in the desert and should come out with something to prove.

With UCLA outmatched across the board on paper, this game could get ugly.

Utah is a far superior scoring team, shoots a substantially higher field goal percentage, is a stronger three-point shooting team, rebounds the ball at a higher rate, shares the ball at an elite level, and is a better shot-blocking unit.

Other than free throw percentage, there isn’t a single noteworthy offensive analytic in which UCLA holds the advantage.

There’s real potential for a blowout.

But the Bruins could make it a game if they lock down on defense. Mick Cronin’s group is 36th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric and No. 1 in the Pac-12 in field goal percentage defense.

Adem Bona will need to stay out of foul trouble and Berke Buyuktuncel will probably have to guard Branden Carlson at times.

Craig Smith likes to play two bigs simultaneously and could go stretches of the game with an advantage down low.

Cronin will probably counter and the contest could devolve into a defensive chess match. That should favor UCLA.

But if the pace is ratcheted up and Gabe Madsen is draining shots from deep, the Bruins could get embarrassed.

Stanford at Oregon State

Thursday, January 11
8:00 pm PT, ESPN2

The matchup between Stanford and Oregon State is flying under the radar in most basketball circles around the country.

But in the Pac-12, this game is a Litmus Test for both programs that could indicate the ceiling of each team.

Oregon State has greatly exceeded expectations this season and has a complimentary roster with defined roles.

Wayne Tinkle has done a respectable job developing talent over the last two years while getting his players to buy into the culture.

After winning several overtime games in nonconference play, the team has a belief that they can beat anyone.

Stanford, on the other hand, is hot after blowing out Arizona in Palo Alto and following it up with a road win over UCLA.

Still, winning away from home is never easy and the Beavers present a significant challenge.

With a mixture of strong guards and true wings, OSU can score from anywhere on the court. Jordan Pope is averaging 17.9 points per game and plays almost the entire 40 minutes.

Pope has three straight games of 20 points or more and just dropped 29 on Washington last weekend.

Slowing him down will be high on Jerod Haase’s game plan along with hampering forward Tyler Bilodeau.

On offense, the Tree have to hit their shots from the perimeter. The offense arguably lives and dies by the three, although they also have a capable interior presence with Brandon Angel and Maxime Raynaud.

If the Cardinal can efficiently score inside and keep Pope contained, the Tree should like their chances.

Arizona State at Washington

Thursday, January 11
8:00 pm PT, FS1

The Sun Devils are 4-0 to start conference play but head to Seattle where they haven’t won since 2020.

The Huskies have a strong offense with weapons all over. Four players average in double-figures and the team is 71st nationally in assists per game.

Point guard Sahvir Wheeler is dishing out 6.5 assists per night while guard Paul Mulcahy is dropping 4.1.

KenPom rates Washington 49th in his offensive metric with the 59th-quickest tempo.

That’s a significant challenge for Bobby Hurley’s defense. Neither team has a truly dominant big, though, which might make the defensive game plan somewhat easier to manage.

Yet, Keion Brooks Jr. can score from anywhere and the Huskies have capable three-point shooters.

Hurley might decide to focus on defending the perimeter and instruct his players to close out quickly on the UW guards/forwards.

If that’s the defensive emphasis, then avoiding giving up offensive rebounds will be key.

The Huskies are just average on the offensive glass, entering the game at No. 176 in offensive rebounds per game.

Still, second-chance opportunities could be devastating, especially if ASU is struggling on the other end of the court.

And this isn’t the Washington defense of years past. Hopkins has ditched the zone and switched to a traditional man-to-man scheme.

The change has paid dividends. The Dawgs are 83rd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric and aren’t bogged down with a slow pace.

Arizona State will need an efficient shooting night from its guards to pull off the upset.

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Dane Miller’s Game Picks

2023-24 Week 3 Pac-12 Games	Pick
UCLA at Utah Jan 11, 6:00 PM	Utah
Arizona State at Washington Jan 11, 8:00 PM	Washington
Stanford at Oregon State Jan 11, 8:00 PM	Oregon State
Overall Record	112-43-0 (72%)