No. 8 Oregon vs No. 23 Liberty

Monday, January 1, 2024
10:00 am PT, ESPN
Glendale, AZ

The Fiesta Bowl is a great and well-respected game, but the matchup with Liberty leaves much to be desired.

The Flames went undefeated and have a capable offense. Yet, the champion of the Conference USA failed to play a Power 5 opponent. Its top win is over a New Mexico State team that just got throttled in the New Mexico Bowl.

Still, Oregon would be unwise to overlook Liberty.

The Flames have the No. 5 scoring offense in College Football and average 40.8 points per game. And they do it mostly on the ground.

Featuring the country’s No. 1 rushing offense, Liberty is capable of making this game close. The primary running back is Quinton Cooley, but the team rotates two additional players who regularly get touches.

But it is quarterback Kaidon Salter who makes the Flames’ ground game so potent.

The sophomore has 1,064 yards rushing on the season to go along with his 12 touchdowns on the ground. On top of that, he has 2,750 yards passing with an ultra-efficient 31-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

When combined with Cooley, the duo have 2,386 yards rushing and 28 rushing touchdowns. Cooley averages 6.7 yards per rush while Salter is putting up 7.0 yards per carry.

Even discounting the quality of defenses they face in Conference USA, those are prolific numbers.

At receiver, CJ Daniels is the primary threat. The junior has 47 receptions for 988 yards and 10 touchdowns. The next closest receiver has just 22 catches and four touchdowns.

The Flames have a running back/receiver hybrid, too. Aaron Bedgood has 19 receptions for 221 yards and two scores to go along with his 55 carries for 507 yards and three touchdowns.

In other words, there’s a reason why Liberty is undefeated and has one of the top offenses in the country. The Flames have numerous variable weapons and depth at running back.

The pieces are perfect for their system and they execute it well. In many ways, there are no apparent flaws in their offense.

The defense, on the other hand, is a different story.

The Flames are No. 39 in points allowed per game which would put them sixth in the Pac-12. And that’s against the competition in Conference USA.

The pass defense is particularly weak. Liberty is No. 101 nationally in passing yards allowed per game. Again, that’s against Conference USA-caliber offenses.

Oregon enters the matchup with the No. 2 scoring offense in the country and the No. 2 passing offense. Bo Nix is playing and the Ducks are looking to bounce back after the loss in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Running back Bucky Irving is playing, as well, which makes Oregon as close to full-powered as one could hope.

Facing a defense that is substantially out-classed on paper, the Ducks should have no trouble putting up points.

The game figures to be decided by how well the UO defense can slow down Liberty’s ground game. In that respect, containing quarterback Salter will be key.

The Flames are so effective on the ground due to Salter’s willingness to run and efficiency passing the ball.

Pressure could be brought to speed up his decision-making process, and the Oregon defensive backs could press the Liberty receivers to eliminate space.

Dual-threat quarterbacks always present significant challenges, yet taking away one of their strengths tends to be effective.

If the Ducks can limit explosive plays through the air and make it a long day for Liberty throwing the ball, the Flames’ rushing attack is likely to be less effective.

Whatever defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi decides to do, the overarching game plan will be designed to limit Liberty’s run offense.

Blitzing the quarterback could get him rattled which might have a knockdown effect across the board.

Either way, the Ducks have the firepower on offense to win a shootout. Oregon is expected to win handily, yet any semblance of a tight game would hurt UO’s reputation.

In other words, the Oregon defense has to step up.

There was controversy surrounding Liberty getting into the final spot of the New Year’s Six games over an SMU team that probably deserved it more.

That might produce extra motivation for the Flames’ players who come out with something to prove. And entering a game that nobody expects them to win, they could play loose and free with nothing to lose.

That might result in a game that is closer than some expect.

Game Picks from Our Senior Writers and Broadcasters