Posted on October 24, 2024
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The Big Ten features a slate of eight games this weekend.
We have bragging rights in the Mitten up for grabs with Michigan and Michigan State doing battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy.
The final conference game of the weekend could surprisingly see the scoreboard get a workout when Penn State visits Wisconsin. By contrast, Iowa and Northwestern might be a count-the-scores-on-one-hand kind of game.
We also keep a watch on the two-time zone travel records after Oregon and UCLA got road wins last week while USC fell at Maryland.
That brings the conference to a combined 5-11 when traveling two+ time zones for a conference game this season.
This week we have three such games with Illinois and Rutgers traveling west while Washington heads east. I see that record get worse for travelers this week.
I went 3-4 last week, bringing my overall conference record to 51-19 (73%).
Here is a look at week nine in the Big Ten and how I think the week will play out.
Rutgers at USC
Friday, October 25
8:00 pm PT, FOX
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: USC –14
Over/Under Point Total: 56.5
A season that started with such promise and big victories for both has given way to a late October matchup that sees the Knights enter one game above .500 and the Trojans sitting at 3-4.
Granted the Trojans’ four losses have been by a total of 14 points, but a fourth-straight loss by any margin would spell trouble.
Rutgers wins if…they can run the ball. It is that simple. They are running for 237.8 yards in their four wins and just 127 in the three losses.
USC wins if…they can protect Miller Moss. In their three wins, the Trojans have allowed just three sacks. In their four losses, they have given up seven sacks.
The Knights’ defensive front has had issues getting to the QB, this could be a right-the-ship game for USC.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: USC
Points total: Under
Outright winner: USC
Nebraska at No. 4 Ohio State
Saturday, October 26
9:00 am PT, FOX
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State –25.5
Over/Under Point Total: 48.5
The last time the Huskers won a conference road game against a ranked opponent was in 2011. That was the Huskers’ first season in the Big Ten, and the win came over Penn State three days after Joe Paterno was fired.
Good luck with the trip to Columbus.
Nebraska wins if…Dylan Raiola can bounce back. Actually, the Huskers lack the firepower to keep up with OSU, but they still need a good rebound game from Raiola, who struggled against Indiana as he was forced to throw the ball 44 times.
Ohio State wins if…the Buckeyes defense can dominate. Aside from the 32 points allowed against Oregon, Ohio State is allowing 6.8 points per game. Nebraska struggled last week against a good Indiana defense; the Buckeyes are an even better unit.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Ohio State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Ohio State
Washington at No. 13 Indiana
Saturday, October 26
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Indiana –6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 53.5
Well, they can lean on a defense that is seventh in the nation allowing just 13.7 points per game. And Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson is a capable replacement behind center.
Washington is looking for their first Big Ten road win.
Washington wins if…they can force Tayven Jackson to make errors. Last season he completed just over 60% and had five interceptions in six games. If the Huskies can make the backup QB uncomfortable, they’ll have a chance.
Indiana wins if…they keep the Huskies off schedule. Washington is not good on third down this season. Indiana is 35th in the nation in third-down defense. If the Hoosiers can keep UW in third and long, they’ll be in the driver’s seat for an 8-0 start.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Indiana
Northwestern at Iowa
Saturday, October 26
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa –13.5
Over/Under Point Total: 37.5
If you’re on the West Coast and you need a nap after brunch to get ready for the afternoon and evening slate of games, turn this one on.
Both teams got embarrassed last week after showing some progress.
Last year the teams combined for 14 punts…I’ll take the under on that this season, but not by much.
Northwestern wins if…they force turnovers. Since the start of last season, the Wildcats are 11-9. In the wins, they are +18 in turnovers. In the losses, the TO margin is 0.
Iowa wins if…they run the football. The Hawkeyes make no secret they are going to run it. Northwestern is 17th in the nation against the run. If Iowa can move the ball on the ground, they’ll get an easy win.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Iowa
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa
Michigan State at Michigan
Saturday, October 26
4:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 40.5
Sure, Michigan lost a lot and were not going to be close to as good as they were last season, but MSU was going to be bad, really bad.
Well, the Spartans are a bit better than we thought and Michigan’s passing attack is looking up at Iowa—literally, UM is 129th in the nation and Iowa is 128th.
Michigan State wins if…they repeat the game plan from last week’s win over Iowa. Limit the run game and stay balanced on offense. The Spartans ran for 212 last week. Traditionally, the team that runs better wins this game.
Michigan wins if…they can find a passing game. The Wolverines need to get something going through the air. Last week the rushing attack was not there either.
The longer the passing game proves to be no threat, the harder it is going to be to get the running game on track.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Michigan
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan
No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin
Saturday, October 26
4:30 pm PT, NBC
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State –6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5
Penn State made the trip across the country and hung on to beat USC before their bye week.
For the Badgers, this is a chance to take the next step. The Nittany Lions need to avoid a stumble ahead of the Ohio State game.
Penn State wins if…they can get the running game rolling. That is something I think will happen. Look for the Lions RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to create some explosive plays.
Wisconsin wins if…the defense can step up. The Badgers have yet to prove they can slow down an elite offense. They are 14th in the nation in defense but got torched on that side of the ball by USC and Alabama.
If they can’t slow down Penn State, this will be a long day.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Penn State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Penn State
Best Bets
No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon
Saturday, October 26
12:30 pm PT, CBS
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon –21.5
Over/Under Point Total: 54.5
Oregon, however, is the biggest player and has already collected the biggest conference win in the Big Ten.
This one is my best bet all around.
I think Illinois can keep it close for a half. That will keep the total under 54.5 but the Ducks will pull away for a comfortable win. But will it be three TDs+?
That could be a tall order, but I look for a late cover in this one for UO.
Illinois wins if…Luke Altmyer continues to play like an All-American. The QB’s 15-1 TD-to-interception ratio is the best among Power Four QBs. The Illini will need that and more in this one.
Oregon wins if…they can dominate this one on the offensive side of the ball. The Illini defense is their strength. The Ducks should be far too explosive in this one for Illinois to keep up.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon
Maryland at Minnesota
Saturday, October 26
12:30 pm PT, FS1
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Minnesota –4.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5
The 14-point comeback might have been a season-saver for Maryland. The offense can be potent when they get going.
Minnesota’s offense has been putrid.
I like the Terps to pull the upset and win this one outright, but give me those 4.5 points all day long.
Maryland wins if…they get good play out of Billy Edwards. The QB is eighth in the nation and leads the Big Ten in passing yards. In wins, he is averaging 318.8 per game while throwing for 279.3 in losses.
Minnesota wins if…the defense continues to be stout against the pass. The Gophers will need to force Maryland to run the ball, something they do not do well. No one has thrown for 300+ on Minnesota this season.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Maryland
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Maryland
Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks
2024 Week 9 Big 10 Games |
Straight-Up Picks |
Rutgers at USC Oct 25, 8:00 pm PT |
USC |
Nebraska at No. 4 Ohio State Oct 26, 9:00 am PT |
Ohio State |
Washington at No. 13 Indiana Oct 26, 9:00 am PT |
Indiana |
Northwestern at Iowa Oct 26, 12:30 pm PT |
Iowa |
No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon Oct 26, 12:30 pm PT |
Oregon |
Maryland at Minnesota Oct 26, 12:30 pm PT |
Maryland |
Michigan State at Michigan Oct 26, 4:30 pm PT |
Michigan |
No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin Oct 26, 4:30 pm PT |
Penn State |
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record | 51-19 (73%) |
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