Top Games

No. 4 Alabama at Wisconsin

Saturday, Sept. 14
9:00 am PT, Fox

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Alabama –15.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

The old stadium will certainly be rocking ahead of this eagerly anticipated matchup. Whether the Badger faithful will want to “Jump Around” after three quarters will remain to be seen.

Alabama wins if…the offensive line can take over. Alabama will have a huge advantage in the trenches in this one when their offensive line is going toe-to-toe with the Wisconsin defensive front.

The Tide Rolls in this one as soon as that line exerts its dominance.

Wisconsin wins if…they can force turnovers. The atmosphere should be electric, and if the Badgers can start fast, it will keep the place rocking. Win the turnover battle and Wisconsin could be ready to pull the upset.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Alabama
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Alabama

Arkansas State at No. 17 Michigan

Saturday, Sept. 14
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan –23.5
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5

They are 2-0 on the season but enter with a season-long aggregate of just +7 after wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa.

Arkansas State wins if…Jaylen Raynor can find time to throw the ball. Raynor can make plays with his arm and legs, but with heavy pressure could come turnovers. His ability to improvise will be pivotal, but will he have space to move?

Michigan wins if…they flush last week’s loss and move on. The Texas game was not pretty, but it is done. This one has no business being close, and if it is, it will most likely stem from self-inflicted mistakes by Michigan.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Michigan
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan

Nevada at Minnesota

Saturday, Sept. 14
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Minnesota –16.5
Over/Under Point Total: 44.0

Both teams need this one for momentum heading into conference play.

Nevada wins if…they score points. Minnesota’s defense is going to make things difficult, but Nevada needs to create some chances. If they can’t score more than the 17 they put up last week, they will be in trouble.

Minnesota wins if…Max Brosmer continues to improve. The QB had a few hiccups against UNC but rebounded with a solid performance against Rhode Island. If the Gophers can get production from him, they will be just fine.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Nevada
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Minnesota

No. 18 Notre Dame at Purdue

Saturday, Sept. 14
12:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Notre Dame –10.5
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5

The Irish, however, should offer a much stiffer test than Indiana State did. Notre Dame is coming off a bad loss to NIU, which followed a good win at Texas A&M…so what is Notre Dame? And are they actually any good?

For that answer, we might have to wait a couple of weeks….or, looking at the ND schedule, we might have to wait until November 30th and the USC game to find out.

Notre Dame wins if…The offense can create some big plays. ND only had two plays longer than 19 yards against NIU. The offense will need to be more explosive in this one.

Purdue wins if…the Boilermakers take what they can get. The Boilers need to be good up front on both sides of the ball, but Hudson Card can’t force anything.

In the opener, he completed 25-of-26 passes. If the check down is there take it, let the backs get yards in the passing game….it worked for NIU last week.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Notre Dame
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Notre Dame

No. 9 Oregon at Oregon State

Saturday, Sept. 14
12:30 pm PT, Fox

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon –16.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

Oregon State looked very good on both sides of the ball in their win over San Diego State. OSU is limiting opponents to 7.5 points per game and just 77 yards per game on the ground.

Oregon wins if…they cut down on the sacks. Whether the sacks are on Dillion Gabriel or the O-Line it does not matter—the fact remains that it has to improve. The Ducks are giving up 3.5 sacks per game, only five teams in the nation are allowing more per game.

Oregon State wins if…the offense keeps clicking. The OSU “D” is always going to be good, but the offense was efficient against SDSU.

Gaining 237 yards on the ground, holding the ball for two-thirds of the game…match that against the Ducks and it will be a very good night in Corvallis.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon

Washington vs Washington State

Saturday, Sept. 14
12:30 pm PT, Peacock
Lumen Field

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington –4.5
Over/Under Point Total: 58.5

But looking beyond the rivalry and bragging rights, for the Cougars it’s a chance to get a second win over an opponent from a power conference and get halfway to bowl eligibility.

For the Huskies, a victory would ensure a good nonconference win and a 3-0 start heading into B1G play.

Washington wins if…the defense continues to play like they have. UW is allowing just 228.5 total yards per game. The degree of difficulty should go up by a bunch this week, but if the Husky defense is really that good then it’ll be Purple Reign in Seattle.

Washington State wins if…John Mateer makes things happen. The QB shattered the WSU single-game rushing record by a QB with 197 last week. If he can be explosive with his arm and his legs, it will cause a lot of issues for the Huskies.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Washington

Indiana at UCLA

Saturday, Sept. 14
4:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Indiana –3
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

For Indiana, it’s a chance to steal one on the road. UCLA needs to hold serve.

Both teams look to get six wins this season and earn the bowl trip. Indiana has played some weaker opponents, but they have outscored those teams 108-10 this season.

UCLA did not look good against Hawaii, but they had an extra week to get ready for this one.

Indiana wins if…the defense continues to dominate. Indiana’s defense looks fast and physical this season. If they can keep the Bruins offense in check and force errors, they’ll leave the Rose Bowl with a win.

UCLA wins if…they can run the football. If the ground game is working, it will open things up for Ethan Garbers to stretch the field.

The Bruins were unable to get any kind of running attack going at Hawaii—and UH isn’t exactly a dominant run-stuffing team. If UCLA can’t run, things may not go well.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Indiana

Maryland at Virginia

Saturday, Sept. 14
5:00 pm PT, ACC Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Maryland –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 57.5

School kids bickering on the playground over the team we picked out of the two that were close by, even though we were all temporary transplants from elsewhere.

Ah yes, the beauty of metro DC….and sadly, no longer an ACC match-up.

Maryland wins if…the Terps can run the ball. UMD ran the ball for almost 250 in their win over UConn.

Last week it dipped to 86 in the loss to Michigan State. Furthermore, the yards per carry fell off from 5.4 to 2.8. Run the ball and they can leave Charlottesville with a dub.

Virginia wins if…Alex Colandria lights it up in the passing game. The sophomore QB is completing 75.8% of his passes this season. Only eight teams in the nation are worse against the pass than Maryland.

Colandria needs to limit the picks, but he could have a big night passing the ball.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Virginia
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Virginia

Best Bets

Central Michigan at Illinois

Saturday, Sept. 14
9:00 am PT, Peacock

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Illinois –20
Over/Under Point Total: 49.5

The Illini are coming off a huge win over Kansas while CMU got boat raced by FIU last week.

Illinois should win big, and as long as they don’t put up a 50, the under might be safe.

CMU wins if…they can force a bunch of turnovers. Create Illinois errors and shorten the field. The problem is Central has given it up six times this season while forcing just one turnover. That’s a bad ratio after two games, like 130th in the nation bad.

Illinois wins if…their defense takes over. The Illini defense sparked the fourth quarter comeback against Kansas. Set the tone early, and about those TO’s CMU must create? Illinois is +7 this season, that’s pretty good, like first-in-the-nation good.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Illinois
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Illinois

Troy at Iowa

Saturday, Sept. 14
1:00 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa –22.5
Over/Under Point Total: 38.5

Troy is 0-2 this season with losses to Nevada and Memphis. The Trojans have been good against the pass but allowed 200+ on the ground in both games.

This one has Iowa winning with the points staying “under” written all over it.

Troy wins if…they can throw the ball. The running game will not be there, Iowa will take that away. Against Iowa State the Hawkeyes were not good against the pass. If Troy can throw the ball they could be there.

Iowa wins if…they don’t turn the ball over. Cad McNamara had two interceptions in the loss last week. As long as Iowa keeps the football, they will win this game.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Troy
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa

Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks

2024 Week 3 Big 10 Games	Straight-Up Picks
No. 4 Alabama at Wisconsin Sept 14, 9:00 am PT	Alabama
Arkansas State at No. 17 Michigan Sept 14, 9:00 am PT	Michigan
Central Michigan at Illinois Sept 7, 9:00 am PT	Illinois
Nevada at Minnesota Sept 14, 12:30 pm PT	Minnesota
No. 18 Notre Dame at Purdue Sept 14, 12:30 pm PT	Notre Dame
No. 9 Oregon at Oregon State Sept 14, 12:30 pm PT	Oregon
Washington at Washington State Sept 14, 12:30 pm PT	Washington
Troy at Iowa Sept 14, 1:00 pm PT	Iowa
Indiana at UCLA Sept 14, 4:30 pm PT	Indiana
Maryland at Virginia Sept 14, 5:00 pm PT	Virginia
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record	14-6 (70%)

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