2024 Week 11 Big Ten Football Previews, Best Bets & Picks

Stephen Vilardo analyzes the matchups and breaks down what each team must do to win

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  By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports

   November 7, 2024

Week 11 brings a six-game slate in the Big Ten and we won’t see any trophy games or big-time matchups.

And with that comes four double-digit spreads which offers some intrigue in itself.

As we continue to monitor the records of teams traveling two-plus time zones, things evened out a bit last week with UCLA and Oregon both picking up road wins.

That brings the league’s combined record to 7-14 when traveling that span for a conference game this season.

This week the big travelers are Washington heading to Penn State while Iowa and Maryland go west to UCLA and Oregon respectively.

I went 5-3 last week, bringing my overall conference record to 64-23 (74%).

Here is a look at week nine in the Big Ten and how I think the week will play out.

Iowa at UCLA

Friday, November 8
6:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa –5.5
Over/Under Point Total: 44.5

UCLA is starting to find its groove and a bowl berth is not out of the question. But it will require at least a 3-1 finish.

The good news is the Bruins will not leave the Pacific Coast for the rest of the regular season. The bad news this week is they draw a very hot Iowa team that has suddenly found some offense.

The Hawks are always good in November, having won 19 of their last 21 played in the 11th month of the year.

Iowa wins if…the offense keeps clicking. The Hawkeyes have scored 82 points in the last two games—79 of them with backup Brendan Sullivan behind center. The offense has scored 38+ points in five games this season, the most since 2008.

UCLA wins if…Ethan Garbers stays hot. In the two-game win streak, the QB has completed 77% of his passes with six TD tosses. Garbers looks really comfortable at the moment and that makes the Bruins a dangerous team to play.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Iowa
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Iowa

Minnesota at Rutgers

Saturday, November 9
9:00 am PT, Peacock

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Minnesota –6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

These teams are going in opposite directions.

The Knights have lost four in a row following a perfect 4-0 start.

The Gophers are winners of four straight after a 2-3 start.

Minnesota wins if…they can shut down the Rutgers rushing attack. The Gophers are allowing just 121 yards per game on the ground this season. In their wins, that figure is at 85 yards; they have allowed 191 in the losses.

Rutgers wins if…Athan Kaliakmanis can have a big game against his former team. Minnesota will try to take away the run game. Kaliakmanis will need to produce to open things up. He has only completed 54% this season with nine TDs and five picks.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Minnesota
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Minnesota

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana

Saturday, November 9
12:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Indiana –14.5
Over/Under Point Total: 49.5

Indiana is a two-touchdown favorite over Michigan.

That is what happens when you have the longest winning streak in program history and the most TDs scored among FBS teams in the first 10 weeks of the season.

This is also a Michigan team that is trying to find their way.

But it’s a series that has seen Michigan dominate 62-10 over the years.

Michigan wins if…Davis Warren can put together another good game. Warren had his best outing against Oregon last week. If the Wolverines truly have their QB situation settled the team could be in good shape down the stretch.

Indiana wins if…Kurtis Rourke’s thumb is not bothersome. The QB played last week and settled down after a slow start but against the Wolverine defense he will need to be sharp from the start.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Indiana

Maryland at No. 1 Oregon

Saturday, November 9
4:00 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon –25.5
Over/Under Point Total: 57.5

The Ducks are coming off a convincing win over Michigan.

Maryland is 4-4 (1-4 in conference play) but coming off a bye week.

Despite the long travel for the Terps, this seems like too big of a number.

I like the Ducks to win comfortably but see Maryland covering the 25.5 in the end.

Maryland wins if…Tai Felton has a big game and they avoid turnovers. Actually, they won’t win, but in order to keep it within the 25 at the end they’ll need their star receiver to come up big and when they turn it over this season they have struggled.

Oregon wins if…they get pressure in the backfield. Oregon is 15th in the nation with 2.78 sacks per game. The Terps allow 1.75 sacks per outing. Make Billy Edwards uncomfortable and force the errors.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Maryland
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Oregon

Washington at No. 6 Penn State

Saturday, November 9
5:00 pm PT, Peacock

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State –13.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

Penn State is coming off a loss to Ohio State in which the offense failed to reach the end zone.

Washington is coming off a key win over USC.

This one will be a whiteout game in State College so it should be an electric environment on Saturday night.

This Washington wins if…it limits the Penn State rushing attack. The Huskies have been very good against the pass but have allowed teams to run on them. If Washington can take the run game away, they might be able to spring the upset.

Penn State wins if…Drew Allar has a bounce-back game. The Nittany Lions offense struggled against Ohio State and Allar completed just 12 of 20 for 146 yards. The Washington pass defense ranks second in the nation.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Penn State

Best Bet

Purdue at No. 2 Ohio State

Saturday, November 9
9:00 am PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State –37.5
Over/Under Point Total: 53.5

Purdue has lost seven in a row and last week it came down to poor coaching decisions, especially in overtime.

For the Boilermakers it seems the season has officially gone off the rails.

Ohio State enters after a big win over Penn State. Look for the Buckeyes to win big in this one.

Purdue wins if…they can rekindle some past magic. The Boilers have pulled off big upsets over the Buckeyes in 2009, 2011, and 2018 and have four total wins over OSU in the last 15 meetings.

Ohio State wins if…the defense dominates. The Boilermakers have had a hard time scoring points this season. The Buckeyes are third in the nation, allowing just 12 points per game. Look for the OSU defense to own the game.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Ohio State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State

Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks

2024 Week 11 Big 10 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Iowa at UCLA Nov 8, 6:00 pm PT	Iowa
Purdue at No. 2 Ohio State Nov 9, 9:00 am PT	Ohio State
Minnesota at Rutgers Nov 9, 9:00 am PT	Minnesota
Michigan at No. 8 Indiana Nov 9, 12:30 pm PT	Indiana
Maryland at No. 1 Oregon Nov 9, 4:00 pm PT	Oregon
Washington at No. 6 Penn State Nov 9, 5:00 pm PT	Penn State
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record	64-23 (74%)

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Stephen Vilardo

writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).

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