Top Games

North Carolina at Minnesota

Thursday, Aug. 29
5:00 pm PT, Fox

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: North Carolina -1.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

When Carolina had to replace Sam Howell, Drake Maye stepped right in, how will it play out this time?

Minnesota replacing a QB is not as big a deal, they’ll run and then run more—or they should. The Gophers are 10-5 in home openers since Huntington Bank Stadium opened in 2009.

North Carolina wins if…things continue as they have. The front end of the season has not been the problem for the Heel recently, it’s the back end that they have struggled.

Mack Brown has 282 wins, the most of any active head coach, he knows how to win, and he has got Omarion Hampton to lean on as an RB.

Minnesota wins if…things change, well, a little. The Gophers need to get back to running the ball effectively and controlling the line of scrimmage this season.

That is their identity, and last season, they got away from it a bit. Run the ball, keep the home crowd’s energy high and a Thursday night game in Minneapolis can end on a high note.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Minnesota
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Minnesota

Florida Atlantic at Michigan State

Friday, Aug. 30
4:00 PM PT Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan State -14
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5

Florida Atlantic wins if…they control the line of scrimmage. The thought of FAU controlling the line against MSU may seem hard to fathom, but that is a strength of the Owls on both sides of the ball.

Tom Herman is a good coach, and their new QB Cam Fancher is pretty good too.

Michigan State wins if…Aidan Chiles plays like he can. MSU fans, you are going to like Chiles a lot. He can and will make plays, he’s also only 18 years old and won’t turn 19 until after the Maryland game.

He’s also taken just 91 snaps, and this will be his first collegiate start. There are going to be bumps in the road early.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: FAU
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan State

No. 8 Penn State at West Virginia

Saturday, Aug. 31
9:00 am PT, Fox

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State –8.5
Over/Under Point Total: 51.5

Penn State is getting a lot of hype as a national contender, but James Franklin has to win the big games. West Virginia is getting a lot of hype as a dark horse contender in the Big 12.

This could be a stepping stone for either team.

The Mountaineers have the most to gain with a big win at home in this one. While a win may not be as important in the grand scheme for the Lions, a loss could be a killer.

Penn State wins if…the running game gets going early to open up big plays in the passing game. Andy Kotelnicki’s offenses utilize rushing success early to pop big ones in the passing game.

PSU has a good stable of backs and look for them to get a lot of touches early.

West Virginia wins if…they win in the trenches. The line is the strength of the WVU defense, and they will get pressure and make plays, they need to control the running game.

They were third in the nation in rushing the ball last year and should be as good this season. WVU just can’t get behind early; playing catch-up against PSU will not work.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: West Virginia
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Penn State

Florida International vs Indiana

Saturday, Aug. 31
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State –21.5
Over/Under Point Total: 51.5

With 54 newcomers and 30 incoming transfers, Curt Cignetti has brought a lot of excitement to Bloomington.

This week the talking is done, and the Hoosiers need to get it done on the field.

FIU wins if…the Panthers can get the running game going. The Indiana defense will most likely not give up a lot of big plays. Getting the ground game going will open up things up for an offense with some talent.

If FIU can move the ball on the ground against IU, they’ll have a chance at an upset.

Indiana wins if…the defense proves to be as good as they have looked in fall camp. And in this one, they probably don’t even need to be that great.

On offense, the Hoosiers have an effective QB in Kurtis Rourke and a really good group of WRs. The difference for the Hoosiers (especially later in the season) will be just how good this fast-swarming defense is.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Point total: Over
Outright winner: Indiana

Idaho at No. 3 Oregon

Saturday, Aug. 31
4:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon –44.5
Over/Under Point Total: 62.5

Playing the big boys of the FBS funds the department and gets the Vandals a chance to play in a big-time environment. They could be a contender in the Big Sky and this one will help them down the stretch.

For the Ducks, this is step one of what could be a magical season for the team and Dillon Gabriel individually. Oregon has won an NCAA-leading 33 straight nonconference home games.

Idaho wins if…well, they don’t win, there is no if about it. The Vandals lost most of their offensive production from last season and Lake Oswego’s Jack Layne takes over at QB.

Idaho does return the bulk of a solid defense, but they will not be able to contain the Ducks.

Oregon wins if…they put air in the footballs. The Oregon line will give Dillon Gabriel as much time as he would like, and he will pick apart the Vandals.

Defensively, Oregon will limit the young QB and make things difficult for a unit with many new parts. September brings some challenges for the Ducks, but the last weekend of August should be smooth sailing.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon
Point total: Over
Outright winner: Oregon

UCLA at Hawai’i

Saturday, Aug. 31
4:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UCLA –14
Over/Under Points Total: 54.5

Hawai’i gets a chance to showcase their explosive passing game on CBS, with several thousand new eyeballs watching them for the first time.

The Bruins open the DeShaun Foster era on the road while making their nonconference debut as a new member of the Big Ten.

UCLA wins if…Ethan Garbers thrives as the unquestioned starter for the first time in his career. Last season, when he threw for multiple touchdowns, the Bruins went 4-0.

They will also need the new defense to perform well against a potent passing attack.

Hawai’i wins if…Dennis Thurman’s defense can wreak havoc. The longtime NFL DC will match wits with longtime NFL OC Eric Bieniemy.

Thurman’s scheme depends upon the defense creating substantial pressure up front and the secondary locking things down. Cam Stone’s ability to neutralize J.Michael Sturdivant in the passing game could be a matchup to watch.

—My Picks—
Against the spread:  Hawai’i 
Point total: Under
Outright winner: UCLA

Weber State at Washington

Saturday, Aug. 31
8:00 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington –27.5
Over/Under Points Total: 52.5

Weber State is ranked entering the season for the eighth straight year.

Washington should not have any National Championship Game hangover with Jedd Fisch at the helm. The Huskies get a fresh start with several new parts, especially on the offensive side.

This will be a good tune-up as they look to win their 12th straight home opener.

Weber State wins if…they jump on the Huskies early. The Wildcats enter the season as the 22nd-ranked team in the FCS. If Weber State can get out to a large early lead on UW, they just might be able to hang on.

And then if it comes down to a kick at the end, Kyle Thompson is one of the best in the FCS.

Washington wins if…the defense dominates and keeps the Wildcats in check. Well, there are a lot of ways Washington wins, but defenses are often ahead of offenses early on.

Should UW’s new offense struggle early, the defense should be able to make plays until the depth takes over.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Washington

No. 23 USC vs No. 13 LSU

Sunday, Sept. 1
4:30 pm PT, ABC
Las Vegas

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: LSU –4.5.
Over/Under Points Total: 64.5

With the expanded playoffs one game can no longer wreck your dreams But this one could have a big impact.

Both teams are playoff contenders, but each could and most likely will be on the bubble at the end of the year.

It is a long season, and we have a long way to go until December, but this one is huge. More than likely in three months, the winner of this one is sweating things out and the loser knows they aren’t going to the playoffs.

Not only a huge game but it could also be fun to watch…Last season, defense was optional at best for both teams. Which brings us to:

USC wins if…D’Anton Lynn’s defense is as good as his unit at UCLA was last year. The front four will be tested. LSU returns four starters from what once was one of the best offensive lines in the nation last season.

If the defense can get pressure on Garrett Nussmeier, they will be able to create takeaways.

LSU wins if…Blake Baker’s defense is as good as his unit at Missouri was last year. LSU was 118th against the pass last season—Bakers Missouri D was 47th.

If the Tiger defense defends the pass like last season, USC will march down the field on them. If they make things difficult for Miller Moss, then the Tigers will have success.

BONUS NOTE: Miller Moss and Garrett Nussmeier are both replacing Heisman Trophy winners. (Caleb WIlliams in 2022 and Jayden Daniels in 2023).

—My Picks—
Against the spread: USC
Point total: Over
Outright winner: USC

Best Bets

Miami (OH) at Northwestern

Saturday, Aug. 31
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Northwestern –3
Over/Under Point Total: 39.5

The opponent this time doesn’t have the prowess of the Sooners, but Miami went 11-3 last season with wins against Power Conference opponents in each of the last two seasons.

Miami wins if…the defense racks up sacks like they did a season ago. Miami was 26th in the nation in QB sacks last season while Northwestern allowed the third most sacks in the country.

The RedHawks have a real chance to disrupt the ‘Cats offense.

Northwestern wins if…the 2023 version of the Wildcats was the real deal and not the 2022 edition.

The Wildcats were third in the nation in turnover margin last season, and if they continue to force miscues, NU will win games again this season, beginning with the opener.

Northwestern will not be able to replicate the turnovers they created last season. Miami might be the best team in the MAC this season and playing in front of 12,000 will hardly offer the Big Ten home-field advantage.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Miami
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Miami

Fresno State at No. 9 Michigan

Saturday, Aug. 31
4:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan -21.5
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5

Now sure, that might have more to do with the defending champs than Fresno, but they have a chance to shine on the national stage nonetheless.

This is not last year’s Michigan team, and this Bulldog team has some firepower on offense.

The Wolverines are looking to prove last year was no joke. UM also looks to prove this season’s defense is as good as it was in 2023.

Also, you don’t go 40-3 in the last 43 games by mistake. The Wolverines are elite.

Fresno State wins if…Mikey Keene has the game of his life. The QB will need to be efficient and accurate as he will be called upon to make a ton of plays.

As good as Malik Sherrod is as a runner he could get bottled up by one of the nation’s best defenses. Scoring chances will be minimal and Keene needs to make the most of them all.

Michigan wins if…Alex Orji does not have the worst game of his life. (I’m guessing Orji wins the starting job over former walk-on Davis Warren but the same could be said for whoever starts and plays.) There’s plenty of talent around the new QB, but he can’t screw it up in career start Number One.

I really like the under on this one. Michigan’s defense is not going to give up much and the Wolverine offense could have their struggles, especially early on. Fresno State also has a solid defense, especially up front.

While Michigan will limit the Bulldogs, Fresno State has too many weapons on offense to be kept off the scoreboard.  It should be around a 17-point win for Michigan.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Fresno State
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan

Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks

2024 Week 1 Big 10 Games	Straight-Up Picks
North Carolina at Minnesota Aug 29, 5:00 pm PT	Minnesota
Florida Atlantic at Michigan State Aug 30, 4:00 pm PT	Michigan State
No. 8 Penn State at West Virginia Aug 31, 9:00 am PT	Penn State
Florida International at Indiana Aug 31, 12:30 pm PT	Indiana
Idaho at No.3 Oregon Aug 31, 4:30 pm PT	Oregon
UCLA at Hawai’i Aug 31, 4:30 pm PT	UCLA
Weber State at Washington Aug 31, 8:00 pm PT	Washington
No. 23 USC at No. 13 LSU Sept 1, 4:30 pm PT	USC
Miami (OH) at Northwestern Aug 31, 12:30 pm PT	Miami
Fresno State at No. 9 Michigan Aug 31, 4:30 pm PT	Michigan
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record	0-0 (0%)