1. Boise State Broncos

The Broncos are loaded for 2024 with Ashton Jeanty back at running back behind an offensive line that returns four players who started at least seven games in 2023.

Highly touted USC transfer Malachi Nelson has all the tools he needs to excel at the college level, though as a freshman, he lacks experience.

Nonetheless, he should be an upgrade from at the QB position from last season.

BSU lost three of its top four receivers from last season’s team, but Prince Strachan emerged as a threat in the back half of 2023.

Defensively, the Broncos will be led by Ahmed Hassanein anchoring a good defensive line.

The linebacker unit will be solid with Andrew Simpson, and the secondary has playmakers in Alexander Teubner, Ty Bennefield, and Cal transfer Jeramia Earby.

A 26th consecutive bowl berth should be a foregone conclusion, and an 11-1 regular-season mark seems eminently attainable. And that would likely bring an invitation to the expanded College Football Playoff.

2. UNLV Rebels

Last season the Rebels recorded their first nine-win season since 1984, and their first bowl game since 2013.

Year Two for Barry Odom comes with more expectations and a couple of question marks.

The play at quarterback will be the key to how good UNLV can be. Transfer Mathew Sluka was a four-year starter at Holy Cross where he threw 91 TD passes in the last three seasons, leading the Crusaders to 29-8.

Wide receiver Ricky White is coming off a record-setting season with 1,483 receiving yards and speedster Jacob De Jesus is a threat every time he touches the ball.

The offensive line, anchored by Tiger Shanks, will be the best in the conference.

Defensively, the Rebels have some spots to fill but six of the eleven starters from 2023 return, including All-Conference lineman Jalen Dixon, linebacker Jaxson Woodard, and Cameron Oliver in the secondary.

The nonconference schedule includes three Power 4 opponents. While the Rebels avoid Air Force, they face both Fresno State and Boise State.

UNLV might be every bit as good as last season, if not better, but duplicating a nine-win regular season could prove difficult.

3. Fresno State Bulldogs

Fresno State has a ton of talent coming back in 2024 led by QB Mikey Keene and RB Malik Sherrod along with four starters from a talented offensive line.

That includes Mose Vavao, who might end up being one of the best centers in the nation.

The one thing the Bulldogs don’t return is Jeff Tedford as head coach. Tim Skipper enters in his place and brings with him a defensive background.

Defensively, Fresno State has a one-two combo on the edge in Devo Bridges and USC transfer Korey Foreman that could be as good as any in the country.

Opponents will have their hands full trying to get both of them blocked on passing plays.

The Bulldogs open with a trip to Michigan, but the other three nonconference games are winnable, including the regular season finale at UCLA.

In conference play, Fresno State must travel to UNLV and Air Force.

If the Bulldogs can pick up those road wins, they’ll have a good shot at playing for the MW title and a double-digit win total.

Dropping the two road tests could end their title hopes, though an eight- or nine-win season should still be in the cards.

4. Air Force Falcons

Last season the Falcons opened the season 8-0 before faltering down the stretch.

They dropped their last four regular season games before a win over James Madison in the Armed Forces Bowl, collecting their first win over a ranked opponent since 2016.

Just six starters return from that squad leaving Troy Calhoun with a lot of holes to fill.

Offensively among their top eight rushers from last season, Dylan Carson is the only returner. He was fourth in rushing in 2023, so look for him to lead the way this season.

The offensive line has to replace everyone—all seven players who started a game in 2023 are gone. But again, the scheme the Falcons play will produce results.

The defense also has some big pieces to replace from last season, but up front, they return Payton Zdroik, who gives them a solid anchor on the defense to build around.

Jamari Bellamy and Jerome Gaillard return in the secondary and Camby Goff has experience at the hybrid SPUR position, so the back half of the defense could be a strength.

The schedule lines up for the Falcons to succeed as they avoid UNLV and Boise State while getting Fresno State at home.

Despite the personnel changes, the Falcons should once again be a conference contender and could flirt with double-digit wins.

5. Wyoming Cowboys

Craig Bohl got the Cowboys back to their winning ways with just one losing season in the last eight, and they did it by running the ball, playing hard-nosed defense, and not beating themselves.

Enter Jay Sawvel, the Cowboys DC since 2020 as the new head coach, who should keep the same formula.

The offense will primarily run the football with key back Harrison Waylee who ran for 947 yards in 2023, despite nagging injuries, behind a decent line that should be improved this season.

Evan Svoboda should be the starting QB, with the mobility the Cowboys look for in their system and a huge arm that can stretch the field and open up the run game.

A Bohl will run the defense—and that might be all you need to know. Aaron Bohl, Craig’s son, will be the new DC and the philosophies on that side of the ball aren’t changing.

The one thing Wyoming will need to improve is getting teams off the field on third down. The Pokes were 113th last season allowing a conversion rate of 44.5%.

The anchor on defense will be Jordan Bertagnole, arguably the best DT in the conference. Behind him, the Cowboys have playmakers in linebacker Shae Suaunoa and safety Wyett Ekeler.

The secondary could be a strength with Wrook Brown, Tyrecus Davis, and Issac White joining Ekeler.

6. Colorado State Rams

In his first two seasons in Fort Collins, Jay Norvell won three and five games, respectively, and that steady improvement should continue this year.

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns after a stellar freshman season to run the offense and will once again have one of the nation’s best receivers at his disposal in Tory Horton.

Running back Justin Marshall played in just the last three games for the Rams in 2023, averaging 103.7 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. He will be the workhorse from the opening kick and should produce big numbers.

On the offensive line, the Rams are anchored by center Jacob Gardner, who figures to play on Sundays.

The defense lost sack master Mohamed Kamara but Nuer Gatkuoth could be the name to watch to replace some of Kamara’s numbers.

With James Mitchell and Cam Bariteau clogging up the middle, the defense should be an improved unit. Jack Howell, Henry Blackburn, and Dom Jones all return from a backfield that made several big plays in 2023.

The nonconference slate features some tough games with Texas, Oregon State, Colorado, UTEP, and Northern Colorado. If the Rams can go 3-2 in those contests, they should be set up for their first bowl trip under Norvell.

7. Utah State Aggies

To say the Aggies had a bad offseason is an understatement.

From Blake Anderson being fired to the tragic loss of CB Andre Seldon Jr., everyone at USU is probably ready to get back on the field under interim head coach Nate Dreilling.

The offense led the MW in yardage last season and was the second-highest-scoring team in the conference.

The explosive passing attack returns almost everyone, with the glaring exception of the QB. Both Cooper Legas and McCrae Hillstead have transferred.

Iowa transfer Spencer Petras or former Ute Bryson Barnes will step into that role.

The receiving corps is led by Jalen Royals, among the best in the nation. Micah Davis and Colby Bowman are also dangerous, averaging over 17 and 22 yards per reception, respectively.

Four starters on the offensive line also return.

The Aggies must improve defensively in 2024, especially against the run. Last season they allowed 43.7 points per game over the final three outings, and 30+ points eight times.

Do-everything DB Ike Larsen is back after picking off eight passes the last two seasons and recording 103 tackles in 2023. Larsen and the defense should get help from Power 4 transfers Jadon Pearson, Marlin Dean, Anthony Switzer, and Devin Dye.

How quickly all the new parts gel will be the question.

8. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors

When Timmy Chang took over his alma mater in 2022 it was a total rebuild.

This season there is real reason for optimism as Hawai’i has a lot of experience to rely on for the first time in quite a while.

QB Brayden Schager is coming off a season in which he threw for 3,542 yards and 26 TDs. It is a real possibility that Shager could lead the nation in passing this season.

Pofele Ashlock is set for a gigantic season at WR coming off his 83-reception campaign in 2023 while Steven McBride had 1,024 yards and averaged 16.3 yards per catch.

Defensively in 2023, the Warriors gave up over 35 points eight times. The run defense got torched by pretty much everyone. But when they allowed only 24 points or less per game, they were 5-0.

The unit doesn’t have to be elite, it just needs to get a few more stops each game.

Hawai’i has some size on the defensive line with 290-pound Kuao Peihopa and 330-pound Sauce Williams. They should be able to clog the middle and open things up for pass rusher Ezra Evaimalo.

The offense should be excellent, and if Chang can get any production from the defense, this team should continue to improve.

9. San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs are coming off their first losing season since 2009.

Offensively, it was one of the worst in SDSU history, ranking 113th in the nation with just 20.5 points per game. The power run attack slipped to 72nd nationally, resulting in a 4-8 season.

New HC Sean Lewis has a history of high-octane explosive offenses. Florida State transfer AJ Duffy will have a chance to prove he is the QB to run the offense.

Behind him is Danny O’Neil, a highly touted recruit from Indianapolis Cathedral.

The signal caller will have a talented group of wideouts led by Mekhi Shaw who should produce huge numbers in this offense.

Running back Marquez Cooper played in this system under Lewis at Kent State and has produced three straight 1,000-yard seasons.

Unfortunately, this offense can produce three-and-outs in short order, and we could see some 20-second drives. The defense will be tested and may often remain on the field for much of the game.

The linebacker unit should be stout with star Cody Moon and Kyle Moretti getting multiple stops. Marlem Louis has a chance to be an outstanding pass rush specialist but staying fresh could be an issue.

Lewis will get the Aztecs going, but it might take a while. The 2024 season could be long, but with the offense operating at warp speed, it certainly won’t be boring.

10. San Jose State Spartans

Under Brent Brennan, the Spartans had an unfamiliar run of success. Since 1992, the program has had only six winning seasons, with three coming in the last four years.

But Brennan is gone, and so are several players from the 2023 version of SJSU.

Enter Ken Niumatalolo, who proved himself at Navy. In Annapolis, he did it with an option ball control offense, but don’t look for the Spartans to line up in triple option sets much under OC Craig Stutzmann.

Stutzmann was a WR at Hawaii when Timmy Chang was the QB running June Jones’s run-and-shoot offense. Look for the Spartans to sling the ball.

Emmett Brown will likely be named the starting QB and will have the luxury of Nick Nash on the receiving end along with his 15.2 yards per reception.

Also back is Justin Lockhart, the team’s leading pass catcher in 2022 before missing last season with an injury. The offensive line will be a work in progress but does have one key piece in Marist Talaviu.

The defense will run a 3-4 set and have a lot of speed at LB on the outside to go from sideline to sideline, and Jordan Pollard in the middle should be a tackle machine.

This season could be a struggle for the Spartans. Getting to five wins would be exceeding expectations.

11. New Mexico Lobos

New Mexico has not been north of four wins in a season since 2016 and has gone 13-42 over the last five seasons. Enter Bronco Mendenhall.

In 17 seasons as a head coach, his teams have finished the season bowl-eligible 16 times.

On offense, the Lobos have their QB in Devon Dampier. He was the backup last season but had a very productive spring. When he saw action in 2023, he produced six TDs with no interceptions.

The RB position will be solid with the return of Andrew Henry and his 6.7 yards per carry along with a pair of transfers in ASU’s Javen Jacobs and Eli Sanders from Iowa State.

Dampier will have a full stable of WRs to throw to as top receiver Caleb Medford returns with slot man Ryan Davis. The offense will also get a boost with the return of Luke Wysong, who missed all of 2023 with an injury.

The defense struggled in 2023, especially along the line. Gabriel Lopez had a solid spring after transferring from Washington State and Bryce Santana should improve a unit that was 106th in the nation against the run last year.

With Tavian Combs, a legitimate All-MW candidate anchoring the back end, the secondary will be the defense’s strength.

The Lobos have plenty of returning talent but will need to pull off some miracles to earn enough wins to become bowl-eligible.

12. Nevada Wolf Pack

The Wolf Pack is coming off their worst two-year period since returning to the FBS level in 1992. Consecutive 2-10 seasons were enough to precipitate a change from Ken Wilson to Jeff Choate.

Before struggling the last two seasons, Nevada had been bowling in 14 of the prior 17 years. Choate built a winning program at Montana State and similar success will be expected in Reno.

The QB job will fall to either Brendan Lewis from Colorado or Chubba Purdy from Florida State and Nebraska. Purdy also has some name recognition as Brocks’s brother.

Either QB will be serviceable, but the workhorses of the offense will be running backs Sean Dollars and Patrick Garwo.

However, the offensive line was atrocious last season, allowing 8.42 tackles for loss and ranking dead last in the nation. If the line doesn’t get better no one in the backfield will have a chance.

Choate is a defensive-minded coach and turned the Texas defense into an elite unit as DC. The problem is he is not working with the same players he had in Austin.

This won’t be a quick fix for Choate. He may well build them back up and we could see them winning in bunches again, just not this season.