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2024 Preseason Big Ten Conference Football Preview

The new-look Big Ten could account for a third of the newly expanded 12-team playoff

Posted on August 20, 2024


  By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports

The Big Ten is a true Super Conference now, stretching from the New York metroplex to Southern California.

The coast-to-coast conference could end up accounting for as much as a third of the newly expanded 12-team playoff. But how will the regular season shake out?

Here is my preseason predicted order of finish for the 2024 football season with offensive and defensive outlooks and some general notes on all 18 members of the new-look league.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State has gone 24-3 in Big Ten conference games over the last three seasons, with all three losses coming at the hands of Michigan.

This offseason they went heavy in the transfer portal and brought in Chip Kelly to make the offense dominant again.

The O-line has NFL talent across the board. The backfield combo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins could be the best RB duo in the nation.

Seven starters return on a defense that held opponents to just 11.2 points per game. It starts up front with a D-line featuring JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer.

All-American Caleb Downs leads a group of playmakers in the back half of the defense.

For OSU, being elite is not always good enough. Sooner rather than later, a Ryan Day season must end with the Buckeyes claiming the ultimate prize.

That season could come this year.

Oregon Ducks Logo Pac-12

2. Oregon Ducks
Oregon may be playing in a new conference, but the expectations are familiar. Year in and year out the Ducks were one of the favorites to win the Pac-12.

This season they once again find themselves picked to be among the best in the Big Ten.

With Dillon Gabriel in command of Will Stein’s potent offense, expect no drop-off in its explosiveness. The QB will have an abundance of weapons at his disposal.

Tez Johnson already owns the Duck single-season record for receptions and will once again be the top target.

Evan Stewart should benefit from an upgrade in the QB play he had at Texas A&M and Traeshon Holden and Gary Bryant make this the best WR unit in the nation—and that does not even include TE Terrance Ferguson.

Senior LB Jeffrey Bassa is the Ducks defensive leader | Craig Strobeck/247Sports

RB Jordan James can get the job done in the backfield for UO and will operate behind an extremely talented line that includes Ajani Cornelius and Josh Conerly Jr.

The Oregon defense was excellent last season despite not getting the hype the offense has received. This season the unit might be better.

There are some holes to fill on the line but the back half of the defense, led by linebacker Jeffrey Bassa and Washington transfer DB Jabbar Muhammad, is loaded.

Oregon enters the season once again as a team to beat, but also with a moniker as a team that fails to win the biggest games.

For Oregon to be feared and truly be “That Team Out West” they need to pick up big wins in 2024.

3. Penn State Nittany Lions
James Franklin is 88-39 in his career with Penn State and has four seasons with 11+ wins. But now the Nittany Lions need to start winning big games.

This season could go a long way in reversing the trend of coming up short. The offense returns several big pieces, and new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki promises more downfield passing.

Drew Allar is back at QB, coming off a season in which he threw 25 TDs with just 2 interceptions. Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combine to form the second-best RB duo in the nation.

The defense last season was first in the nation in sacks and tackles for loss. The 13.5 points per game allowed was third-best nationally.

Penn State’s pressure comes from all over the field, so looking to shut down one pass rusher normally does not work well.

PSU has the talent to be pretty special this season, and the schedule lines up well. The Lions don’t face Michigan or Oregon and get Ohio State at home. If they can find a way past OSU the sky is the limit.

It’s time for Franklin and Penn State to turn the corner.

4. Michigan Wolverines
Last season the Wolverines took home their third straight Big Ten title and first national title since 1997.

They open 2024 with plenty of new parts on both sides of the ball and Sherrone Moore replacing Jim Harbaugh as head coach.

Moore led an efficient offense that didn’t turn the ball over in 2023.  Those OC duties now fall to Kirk Campbell, who must replace a ton of talent in the offensive unit.

Alex Orji will most likely get the start at QB and while he may not be as efficient in the passing game as his predecessor, he offers an element in the running game missing over the last few seasons.

Colson Loveland is the best TE in the nation.

Longtime NFL defensive guru Wink Martindale is now in charge of a defense that was next-level elite last year.

While a large portion of the starters from last season are gone, they have plenty of talent, and the line will be one of the best anywhere.

The defense will again carry this team. Last season the Wolverines only turned it over eight times. If the offense can control the ball, Michigan’s repeat playoff aspirations should come to fruition.

usc logo

5. USC Trojans
The relevant stat for the Trojans from 2023 was 0-4. USC went 0-4 last season when they failed to score 42 points in a game.

Conversely, the Trojans went 8-1 when reaching the 42-point mark, the only exception being a 52-42 loss to Washington. The good news for USC? Of the combined 76.2 points per game, 41.9 were put up by the Trojans.

Quarterback Miller Moss has some big shoes to fill in replacing the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft. He will have a playmaker to throw to in Zachariah Branch and Kyle Ford is back after spending last season with UCLA.

The offensive line should open plenty of holes for Woody Marks and Quinten Joyner, who can gobble up yards in bunches.

Zachariah Branch is a threat to score when he has the ball | USC Athletics

The bad news is that last year’s defense allowed 34.8 points per game. Lincoln Riley attempted to address that over the offseason by replacing Alex Grinch with D’Anton Lynn.

Lynn was excellent running UCLA’s defense and he has talent to work with, especially among the front seven. The line should be good with Bear Alexander and Elijah Hughes in the middle and Jamil Muhammad on the end.

The LBs are extremely talented with Eric Gentry and Mason Cobb being joined by Oregon State transfer Easton Mascarenas-Arnold.

Moss must be efficient, but success will depend on the defense’s improvement over last season.

6. Iowa Hawkeyes
Take everything you just read about USC and flip it. Sadly, the world will be deprived of the USC vs. Iowa matchup of contrasting styles this season.

Iowa needs to improve on offense, and that is no shock. But let’s be honest here: It will be hard for the Hawkeyes not to improve this season.

Tim Lester is the new OC and promises to open things up much more. Having a healthy Cade McNamara at QB will go a long way for Iowa.

The Hawkeyes averaged just 15.4 points per game in 2023 and still went 10-4. The defense was that good and should be once again this season.

Jay Higgins could be the best defensive player in the nation. Combined with Nick Jackson, the two were just short of 300 tackles in 2023.

Iowa has had 11 straight winning seasons and three 10-win seasons since 2019.

The defense will be able to carry them to wins once again. If the offense can offer just a bit more, they could be scary good.

7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers went 2-9, 1-11, 5-7, 4-7, 7-5, and 11-2 in years 1-5 of Greg Schiano’s first stint with the school.

Now in Year Six of his second stint in Piscataway, his rise has been similar, culminating with a Pinstripe Bowl victory and a 7-6 campaign in 2023.

Kyle Monangai is one of the better backs in the conference, running for 1,262 yards and eight TDs in 2023, and he will get plenty of chances to carry the football.

The offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the Big Ten last season, and just 4.1 TFLs per game, 11th best in the nation.

The defense was 16th in the nation last season, allowing just 21 points per game without generating a bunch of pressure. The unit will be every bit as good this season.

In the secondary, the Knights allowed over 200 yards passing just four times in 2023.

Rutgers hasn’t posted a winning conference record since joining the Big Ten.

However, this season the schedule does not include Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, or Iowa, putting Rutgers in a position to claim their first winning record in Big Ten play.

8. Wisconsin Badgers
Among Power 5 programs, Wisconsin has the most wins of any team that has never qualified for the playoffs.

The 90 wins for the Badgers since 2014 are topped only by App State and Boise State among teams that have not had a chance to play for the big prize.

The offense in Year One of the Luke Fickell era was not good. Wisconsin went from a power run to a spread look and for many reasons, it did not work in 2023.

Last season the Badgers went 7-0 when attempting at least 35 runs while going 0-6 when they did not reach that mark. Chez Mellusi will get the bulk of the carries along with Tawee Walker.

Wisconsin was stout against the run last year, allowing 24+ points just twice. The Badgers struggled against the pass, however. They did not force many turnovers and failed to put any pressure on opposing passers.

The Badgers may not take the next step this season, but they have a chance to prove they are moving in that direction.

A non-conference visit from Alabama in Week 3 could be a chance for Wisconsin to flex a bit and set up for a strong conference run.

9. Nebraska Cornhuskers
There was a time when the Huskers were the elite of the elite.

In 124 years of playing football, Nebraska has only had 29 losing seasons—but seven of those have come in the last seven years. This is not the Nebraska of old.

The player that could get them back to where they want to be is QB Dylan Raiola.

He has an NFL pedigree and was set to be the next great QB at USC—then at Georgia—and now he is the best passing prospect Nebraska has ever landed.

Oregon transfer Dante Dowdell could separate himself from a deep RB group, but the offense will go as the passing game goes.

Other than the Colorado and Michigan games, the Nebraska defense allowed just 13.8 points per game last season. They return a bunch from that unit.

Matt Rhule did a good job of getting a bad team to play hard in Year One. Five of the seven losses last season were one-score affairs. Now the key is to take the next step.

With a good defense and a promising offense, the bowl drought should at least end.

Washington football pac-12

10. Washington Huskies
After going 14-1 and competing in the National Championship Game last season, Kalen DeBoer has exited for Alabama, and no starters return from a record-setting offense

But compared to what Jedd Fisch inherited at Arizona, the Washington rebuild could be a walk in the park.

Brennan Carroll’s offense will not feature the deep passing game of Michael Penix Jr., but will instead rely on mid-range shots and a high rate of completions.

Will Rodgers may be the exact opposite of Penix, but he’s the perfect fit for this scheme. He won’t throw the 70-yard dart, but he could complete 70% of his passes.

You have to go nine-deep into last season’s stat sheet to find a returning receiver in Giles Jackson and his 14 receptions. But Jeremiah Hunter enters from Cal, so the WR group is not devoid of experience.

Giles Jackson leads the UW receiving corp | Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports

First-time coordinator Stephen Belichick inherits a defensive unit with some gaps to fill. The LBs will be its strength, with Carson Bruener and Alphonso Tuputala figuring to make a lot of plays.

The line will be reworked but should produce plenty of pressure from Russell Davis and Isaiah Ward. The secondary lost some big pieces but should still have enough talent to make plays.

Fisch worked wonders in Tucson, turning things around in a hurry. In Seattle, he only needs to reconstitute and sustain the success of the past.

This season will be a step back from last year’s magical Playoff run, but the Huskies should not fall too many rungs down the ladder.

11. Maryland Terrapins
Mike Locksley has things rolling at Maryland. The DC native is back home and capped off the 2023 season with a 31-13 win over Auburn in the Music City Bowl.

That win marked the first time the Terps had won eight or more games in back-to-back seasons since 2002-03.

However, replacing the Big Ten’s all-time passing leader is no easy task. Stepping into the role will be either MJ Morris or Billy Edwards.

The pass-catchers will still be really good. Tai Felton and Kaden Prather combined for 90 catches last season.

The Terps defense was quietly competent in 2023, allowing under 300 points in a full season for the first time since 2010 while picking off 17 passes and limiting opponents’ run games at an adequate level.

Maryland should have no trouble building off recent success, but the defense will once again need to create turnovers.

Since 2020. the Terps are 11-2 when forcing 2+ turnovers in a game. The quarterbacks don’t need to break records, but they will need to play well enough to keep this offense explosive.

12. Indiana Hoosiers
Curt Cignetti certainly does not lack showmanship or bravado. He also has the Indiana fan base excited about football for the first time in a long time.

And for good reason. Cignetti comes to Bloomington with a 119-35 career record as a head coach and has never had a losing season. Indiana, however, has only had three winning seasons in the last 30 years.

Kurtis Rourke will start the season under center after being one of the best QBs in the MAC for the last three seasons with Ohio.

Running backs Kaelon Black and Justice Ellison transfer in from James Madison and Wake Forest.

One of the better WR rooms in the Big Ten will be led by the trio of Elijah Surratt, Myles Price, and Donovan McCulley. All three will be playmakers in the passing game.

Defensively, the Hoosiers will also feature plenty of new faces and new looks and should be fast and fly around to the football.

The key for this team will be stopping the run and establishing a physical presence on the defensive side of the ball.

Indiana’s .419 all-time win percentage is the worst among Power 4 programs and ninth worst among all FBS schools. So there is a historic losing tradition to overcome.

13. Illinois Fighting Illini
The last eight seasons of coaching for Brett Bielema have been interesting.

Since leaving Wisconsin after the 2012 season, he went 29-34 in five years with Arkansas. He took the Hogs to three bowl games but bookended those seasons with struggles.

The first three years in Champaign have similarly been up and down. An 8-5 season in 2022 was bookended by a pair of 5-7 campaigns.

How often do you think Bielema thinks about “What might have been…” if he had just stayed in Madison?

The offense was third in the Big Ten in 2023 but was inconsistent and lost some big parts. Leading rusher Reggie Love is off to Purdue and the top two receivers are gone. The offensive line allowed 40 sacks and 76 TFL in 2023.

Defensively, Illinois took a big step back last season. Jer’Zhan Newton is gone, and they hope to make up for some of his production with Dennis Briggs.

The secondary should be stronger this season and look for big years from Xavier Scott and Terrance Brooks.

The defense is key. If Illini can get back to their 2022 form on that side of the ball, they will find success. If they play like last year’s version, their struggles will continue.

14. Minnesota Golden Gophers
The first seven seasons in Minneapolis for PJ Fleck have produced a 50-34 record and five bowl trips, all wins.

The 2023 version of Minnesota was an odd one. The Gophers had big surprise wins, complete meltdowns, and lost to some teams they should have never lost to. Ultimately, it ended with a win in the Quick Lane Bowl.

In short, the Gophers lost their identity, which amounts to running the ball.

This season, the backfield is loaded with capable runners, including Darius Taylor, a phenomenal lead back, who is joined by a trio of transfers that could all see touches.

Max Brosmer was a good get in the portal for Minnesota at QB. He may not be the biggest name or have the biggest arm, but the former New Hampshire signal-caller makes good decisions and doesn’t turn the ball over.

Defensively it is simple: Don’t give up points and you’ll win games. Last season, when Minnesota gave up 24 or less, they went 6-0.

Conversely, The U (Yes, Minnesota is also known as “The U” in the Twin Cities) was 0-7 when they allowed more than 24 points.

The formula for an improved season for Minnesota is don’t turn the ball over, get back to a strong ground game, and keep teams out of the end zone.

Seems simple enough. The Gophers can’t afford another slip-up in 2024.

15. UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have not had a 10-win season since 2014 and are still looking for their first-ever 11-win campaign.

Can DeShaun Foster deliver those? Perhaps, but don’t expect either in 2024.

Offensively, the best thing the Bruins got last winter may be Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator. The way I see it, he should be well into an NFL head coaching gig by now.

Ethan Garbers will be the pilot of an offense that has to be more consistent this season than they were last year.

Wideout J.Michael Sturdivant is a playmaker and Moliki Matavao is poised to be in the top half of B1G TEs.  TJ Harden will be the feature back and went for 5.3 yards per carry last season.

Ethan Garbers will lead a new offensive scheme | Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times

The defense will have difficulties replicating the 2023 version as D’Anton Lynn left for USC. The line still has Jay Toia clogging the middle, and running the ball up the gut will not be easy for opponents.

The LBs still have a lot of talent with Kan Medrano and Oluwafemi Oladejo leading the way. The secondary will rely heavily on transfers; however, this season could be a breakout year for senior corner Devin Kirkwood.

The defense will not be the same as it was a year ago. The offense can’t leave points off the board. And UCLA must improve its 97th ranking nationally in penalty yards per game.

This season it could be those kinds of things that make the difference between this team playing in a bowl game or suffering through a long first year of the Foster era.

16. Northwestern Wildcats
The job that David Braun did with the Wildcats last season was amazing.

From a last-minute coaching change, losses to Duke and Rutgers, and a 1-2 record to—boom—just winning games.

So, what happens now? A rebuild, both figuratively and literally.

With no home stadium this season, the Cats will play home games at either Wrigley Field or their makeshift practice facility/lacrosse field-turned-small-stadium along Lake Michigan.

Mike Wright will step in at QB after spending time at both Vandy and Mississippi State. He’ll have at least one big play receiver at his disposal in Bryce Kirtz and the running attack has options with Cam Porter and Joseph Himon.

Last year the defense created 22 takeaways, ranking Northwestern third in the nation with a TO margin of +1.0 per game. This season they will need to get more pressure and stops behind the line.

If they can do that, they’ll keep opponents off schedule.

The defense may struggle to get into opponents’ backfield and the offense could struggle to keep foes out of their own backfield.  If they can’t force turnovers like they did last season it could be a long year along the lake.

17. Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State has suffered through three losing seasons in the last four while losing to Michigan by a combined score of 78-7 the last two.

MSU has a legitimate QB in Aidan Chiles, who came with Smith. He will make the WRs better than last season, and his leading target will be a familiar face in TE Jack Velling, also a former Beaver.

The defense features several new faces, and that is not a bad thing.

The Spartans were obliterated by opposing offenses at times last season, giving up nearly 2,000 yards in the three games against Ohio State, Penn State, and Washington alone.

The secondary has been really bad the last couple of seasons. The new front seven needs to be a lot better because the back half of the defense could be vulnerable once again.

Jonathan Smith is an excellent coach and the Spartans believe they have found the guy who can get them back to their winning ways.

But it may not happen in 2024.

18. Purdue Boilermakers
Last year was a struggle for Purdue, losing Jeff Brohm to Louisville and seeing his success at his alma mater in Year One.

Meanwhile, the Boilermakers limped to a 4-8 mark, not a pleasant one in West Lafayette.

Can Year Two under Ryan Walters offer more success? That is a tricky one. They should be better—should be—but their record may not reflect that assessment.

Graham Herrell is a good offensive coordinator with a vision for what this team needs to be. But to run the offense he envisions at a high level, he must have the parts to make it work.

Last year the Boilermakers did not have them, and I am not sure they do this season either.

Hudson Card is back to run things at QB, and when he completed 60%+ Purdue was 4-3. When he failed to complete 60% of his passes, they slipped to 0-5.

Purdue’s defense was bad last season. The Boilers were the worst in the Big Ten against the pass and the 30.1 points per game allowed ranked 104th in the nation.

The secondary proved disappointing as well, with the glaring exception of Dillon Thieneman, who had six interceptions and led the team with 106 tackles.

Purdue is putting more talent on the field this season than last year,  but the results still will not be exactly what Purdue fans are looking for in Year Two of the coaching regime.