Entering last season, the Hawai’i football program was in disarray. The end of the Todd Graham era in Honolulu was a disaster and set the program on its heels.

A mass exodus of the roster was the result.

The Rainbow Warriors turned things over to a program legend, Timmy Chang, to right the ship. Four of their six conference losses in 2022 were one-score games.

The results may not have been there, but the fight certainly was. The talent will still not be at the level it was in 2019 when the ‘Bows played in the Mountain West Championship game, but there seems to be some promise.

I preview Hawai’i’s 2023 season below with a look back at last season and an analysis of the Rainbow offense, defense, and schedule.

When you hear the name Timmy Chang, you immediately think of passing and a team coached by Chang is going to sling the ball around the field for sure.

The problem last season was that they were one of the least efficient passing teams in the nation. Their team passer rating of 102.9 ranked 125th in the nation.

Only New Mexico was less efficient among MW programs. Brayden Schager will be back under center for Hawai’i this season and he quite simply needs to have a sharper season.

The QB had 13 TDs vs 10 interceptions while throwing for just 195.7 yards per game. Things started to look better at the end of the season, no interceptions in the final two games and he threw for 246 yards per game over his last three outings.

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Offense

Schager’s targets on the outside will have to be better as well. With the ball zipping around the field UH will need some playmakers to step up.

Jalen Wathall had some flashes during his freshman season and could develop into the deep threat the offense needs to stretch the field.

Steven McBride has transferred in from Kansas and could be the guy that does most of the work on the outside. Hawai’i will need him to be a high-volume receiver.

The running game when called upon was effective. Tylan Hines averaged 7.6 yards per carry in his freshman campaign and is elusive enough to create space through even the tiniest of gaps the offensive line can produce.

The Rainbow Warriors just need to stay ahead of the sticks. Last season, 52.6% of their third-down snaps required seven yards or more to gain. This explains why the team’s third down conversion rate was just 34.5% in 2022.

The style of offense they play is never going to win them the time of possession stat, they just aren’t going to grind out time-consuming drives.

Picking up third downs becomes that much more important to be able to stay on the field and give the defense a rest.

Hawai’i had four games in which the offense converted more than 40% of their third downs last season and went 3-1 in those contests….it definitely matters.

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Defense

The secondary had its struggles for sure in 2022 but Peter Manuma was a bright spot in the back end of the defense.

As a freshman, he made 70 tackles from his Safety position while forcing two fumbles and picking off a pair of passes.

He will only improve, and JUCO transfer Justin Sinclair has a nose for the ball and should create havoc in the other Safety spot.

The linebackers should also be better. Logan Taylor led the team in tackles last fall and returns, reportedly with more bulk on his frame.

Isaiah Tufaga, a transfer from Oregon State should also be a defensive playmaker for UH in the middle.

The defensive line will have a lot of new faces and will just have to be a lot better this season for Hawai’i to accomplish their goals.

They were 126th in the nation last season allowing 213.3 yards on the ground per game. They also were near the bottom nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss per game.

This is a Hawai’i team that clearly has some work to do, but eventually, some of those tight one-score games will start to go their way.

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Schedule

The schedule did them no favors last season as they were destroyed in the opening three games by an average margin of 56-12 by Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky, and Michigan.

They travel to Vandy for the opener this season and have a trip to Eugene to face the Ducks, but the nonconference schedule is manageable with visits from Albany, New Mexico State, and Stanford.

If they can navigate that stretch at 3-2 or 2-3 at least then the conference slate opens with a visit from UNLV in what could be a 50/50 game to set the tone for the season.

The schedule takes them to New Mexico and Nevada in games that could be winnable.

If things fall their way the season finale vs Colorado State could be with a bowl birth on the line, but again things will need to fall in place and that would be the best-case scenario.

Is this going to be the breakout season Timmy Chang is looking for?

Probably not. But things should be headed in the right direction and the progress for the Rainbow Warriors should be noticeable in 2023.