SportsPac12 Senior Football Writers Roundtable: Mid-Season Observations

Posted on December 4, 2020


  By Dane Miller, Nick Bartlett, and Chris Courtney, SuperWest Sports

Dane: Alright everyone, after a wild Thanksgiving weekend we are back for some observations and comments on the state of the Pac-12. This time we are joined by our Oregon writer, veteran sportswriter Chris Courtney of Whole Flock of Ducks, so let’s get to it.

Obviously, the big result from Week Four was the Oregon State upset over Oregon. On a lot of levels, we kind of saw this one coming, and Nick even picked the Beavs to pull off the upset. Jermar Jefferson ran wild for 226 yards on the ground and the Duck defense surrendered 532 total yards and 41 points.

Chris, I know UO lost a few key players on that side of the ball to opt-outs, but what’s going on with the defense in Eugene? We all thought this unit was supposed to be the strength of Oregon in 2020.

Chris: You, me, and everyone else. Truthfully, it’s becoming painfully clear that Oregon’s defense badly misses not only the impact of guys like Jevon Holland, Thomas Graham, and Brady Breeze, but also the leadership of graduated veterans such as Troy Dye, La’Mar Winston, and Bryson Young.

And it’s far more than I think anyone cared to realize. Combined, those six players were the gravity of 2019’s group—important, experienced “culture keepers,” as Mario Cristobal might say. They were great at cultivating and managing the competitive spirit of this team. That void, plus the universal issue of COVID-19, and you’re seeing what comes out the other end…

Of course, this was still hands-down the Pac-12’s most talented defense entering the year.

The Ducks returned their deepest defensive line group in years, headlined by Kayvon Thibodeaux, and a secondary that still featured two of the best corners in the Pac-12 in Dede Lenoir and Mykael Wright, plus a seasoned vet in Nick Pickett, and two former freshman All-Americans at safety in Verone McKinley and Bennett Williams. And at linebacker, Mase Funa, Noah Sewell, and Justin Flowe represented the unit’s skyscraping future, alongside savvy vet Isaac Slade-Matautia.

So yes, there was some attrition, but was the drop-off really supposed to be this dramatic? That’s the question haunting this program and fanbase right now.

Nick: I think it’s painfully obvious that the drop off wasn’t supposed to be this substantial. In the last three games they’ve allowed 35 points per contest.

What is more concerning, however, is the group’s lack of a dog in the trenches. From an athletic stand point, the Beavers’ offensive line should have been dominated. Instead, Oregon State ran more plays, out-rushed the Ducks, and won the time of possession battle by eight minutes.

Oregon’s defense has two game-changing playmakers in Kayvon Thibodeaux and Noah Sewell, but as my Dad always says, “Football is the ultimate team sport,” and until other standouts emerge, they are likely going to struggle.

I keep hearing that the Ducks secondary is elite, but they don’t pass the vision test. While Kolby Taylor and Trevon Bradford are better than they’re given credit for, I’d expect UO’s secondary to limit their impact on the field. In last Saturday’s matchup, the former finished with seven catches for 114 yards, while the latter finished with eight and 93.

I’m not ready to quit on Oregon’s defense just yet. Sometimes a full blast alarm clock in the middle of the night wakes you up. Other times it’s the Beavers.

What do you think Dane? Can the Ducks still win the conference?

Dane: Yes, absolutely. Oregon controls its own destiny and can certainly still win the North.

One loss usually doesn’t define a season, and the Ducks still have everything in front of them. The next two games against California and Washington will likely define the year, though.

As for UO’s defensive struggles, there may have been some level of complacency that built up over the offseason. There’s likely a myriad of factors that have combined together, but it sort of feels like they drank too much of their own Kool-Aid. And now the allure of an unbeatable defense is gone, giving opponents a level of confidence that was absent last year.

But staying in the North, Washington has emerged as the favorite to win the division. The Dawgs are undefeated through three games, and appear to be getting it done on the back of their defense. UW’s strong performances are juxtaposed with Oregon’s, especially considering the Husky offense is somewhat of a liability at times.

With remaining games against Stanford and Oregon, do either of you think Washington has the offensive firepower to win the Pac-12?

Chris: If Oregon State has enough firepower to topple Oregon, then Washington has a surplus. Husky redshirt freshman quarterback Dylan Morris isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, but neither was Oregon State’s Tristan Gebbia, and he didn’t have the likes of Puka Nacua and Cade Otton to throw to. Mix in what I think is a sneaky good three-headed rushing attack between Sean McGrew, Kamari Pleasant, and Richard Newton, and I don’t think the Ducks want any part of that right now, given the way their defense is playing.

Conversely, Washington leads the Pac-12 in both passing defense at 162.7 yards per game, and total defense at 314.0 yards per game. Moreover, the Dawgs rank second in the Pac-12 through three games in takeaways with seven. Considering the “getability” of their schedule over these next two weeks, they are a deserving favorite to win the Conference in my mind.

Nick: Does Washington have a great offense? No, but is it good enough to win the conference? Yes. Looking at their remaining schedule, the only matchup that should prove difficult is the Ducks. Even though the Cardinal axed Cal last week, I’d expect UW to beat Stanford comfortably.

So really, the question that I’m answering here is, Can the Huskies score enough to beat UO? And again, that answer is: Yes. Morris likely gained a mammoth confidence boost after the come-from-behind win against the Utes. The rest of the Husky offensive is solid, albeit not elite, averaging 31.7 points per game, sixth-best in the Conference.

I’d expect this matchup to come down to which receiving corp can win in one-on-one battles. I don’t think that Nacua is elite, but if OSU’s Bradford and Taylor can create separation, then the Huskies have a chance.

Oregon’s defense will likely improve in their final two regular season games, so they should prove difficult to score against. The Dawgs could counteract their productivity by continuing to convert third downs at a high percentage. They’re currently fourth in the conference with a 44.4 percent conversion rate.

Has UW’s offense passed the vision test? Absolutely not. Can they score one more point than the Ducks? Absolutely.

Oh wow, I almost forget there was a South division. The Dawgs will defeat whoever wins that league riding the momentum from the Oregon matchup.

What are your thoughts, Dane? Do you think UW’s offense has enough talent to win the Conference?

Dane: At this point, the Huskies should win the North. But I have a sneaky team in the South that both of you didn’t mention: the Colorado Buffaloes. Call me crazy, but I’m riding the Buff bandwagon until they prove me wrong.

CU’s defense isn’t a showstopper, yet they play well enough to win games. And Karl Dorrell’s offense is filthy in the red zone: 13-for-13 with 11 touchdowns. Jarek Broussard and Sam Noyer are solid on the ground, and Colorado rarely turns the ball over with a +1.33 margin.

I’ll own it if I’m wrong, but I think the Buffaloes could take down Washington in the Pac-12 Championship.

But alright guys, let’s jump into our final topic. Arizona is on a school-record 10-game losing streak and Kevin Sumlin hasn’t recruited well to Tucson. Other than Grant Gunnell, there’s little to be positive about in the desert. The Cats are off to their worst start since 1969, and don’t appear to be favored against either Colorado or Arizona State to close out the year. If UA loses the Territorial Cup to ASU, Sumlin will be 0-3 against Herm Edwards.

Are Arizona football’s struggles mostly to do with Sumlin, or is there something more fundamental that has led to the current state of the program?

Chris: Aside from an upstart season here and there, everyone knows that basketball butters the bread in Tucson, not football. It’s hard to see that changing anytime soon, but I think most people have been pretty surprised at the tepid impact Kevin Sumlin has had at U of A—and that’s probably putting it nicely.

At the time, Sumlin was considered a home run hire for the football program in the aftermath of Rich Rodriguez’s abrupt ouster, but he’s essentially done nothing to build upon what Rodriguez had modestly accomplished in his six years at Arizona. Many believed Sumlin would bring much-needed recruiting chops to compete with programs from outside the state of Arizona, who often come in and raid the top in-state talent. But it almost appears as if Sumlin has neglected in-state recruits altogether.

In fact, if you count the 2018 recruiting class, who’s arrival on campus that fall coincided with Sumlin’s, Arizona has only signed 10 in-state high school prospects over the course of the past four recruiting cycles. Even more astonishing is the fact that just one of those players was considered a Top 10 recruit within the state.

Arizona may never be a perennial Pac-12 power on the gridiron, but Kevin Sumlin isn’t doing much on the recruiting trail—particularly in his own backyard—to even suggest that the perception of the program has changed, or is changing.

Nick: The head coach is usually going to shoulder the blame on a losing team whether it’s warranted or not. And in this instance it’s definitely warranted.

There is a difference between a team that is competing and losing games, versus a squad that’s getting lambasted every time they step onto the field. During this 10-game losing streak, they’ve lost four matchups by 20 points or more, and nine by 10 or more.

While there’s a plethora of factors that play into each individual program, including the athletic director, boosters, and obviously the players, this type of performance is unacceptable at a respectable football school. UA may be known for basketball, but their football team has six-winning seasons since 2010. None of these have taken place during Sumlin’s tenure.

But it’s more than that: The program is failing on all levels. From 2018 to 2020, they’ve had the 11^th ranked recruiting class in the Pac-12. They also didn’t have one player selected in the 2020 NFL Draft.

I do not feel confident to conjecture if there is underlying issue within the program, but the head coach is usually the most recognizable face at the collegiate level. This falls on his shoulders.

What do you think Dane? Is this a program-wide failure, or is Sumlin just underachieving?

Dane: There are fundamental recruiting challenges at Arizona, but they can be overcome with the right coaching on the field.

Academics aren’t a selling point, nor is the City of Tucson itself, and there’s hardly any football tradition. But UA can offer early playing time, a great campus, and a vibrant college experience.

Prior to Rich Rodriguez, Mike Stoops was able to recruit pretty well to the desert. Nick Foles, Rob Gronkowski, and Nick Folk are still doing their thing in the NFL, and each were key components of the rebuild in Tucson.

Then came RichRod who implemented a highly successful offensive scheme, won the Pac-12 South, and made the Fiesta Bowl in 2014. Rodriguez got it done using a mixture of Stoops’ leftover talent and several offensive weapons he recruited himself.

The point I’m getting at is it takes a mixture of recruiting and good on-the-field coaching. Stoops was a good recruiter, but struggled at times to put together the end-product. RichRod was a fantastic offensive X’s and O’s coach, but didn’t recruit very well in the long run because he ignored the Texas pipeline UA has.

But Sumlin has neither of those traits. The current offensive system struggles against above-average defenses and the Wildcat defense itself is bad, to put it nicely. Compound that with poor recruiting, and you get a program-record 10 game losing streak.

To directly address my own question, there are fundamental challenges at Arizona, but the right coach can overcome them. And Sumlin has failed through two and a half years.

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