Miller: Thursday Pac-12 Men’s Hoops Tournament Previews

Today's matchups include Arizona State-Oregon, Oregon State-UCLA, Utah-USC, Cal-Colorado

Posted on March 11, 2021


  By Dane Miller, SuperWest Sports

Round One of the Pac-12 Tournament produced two close games and an unexpected blowout.

Stanford’s season mercifully came to an end after numerous injuries, discipline issues, and a star freshmen arguably quitting at the end of the season was too much to overcome. Once considered to be in play for the fifth and final bid from the Conference of Champions, Jerod Haase’s program ended the season just as it had last year: In a series of defeats.

But earlier in the day, Jaelen House willed the Sun Devils to a victory, and Utah put up 98 points, yet somehow only won by three.

If Day One is any indication of what Thursday will bring, strap in.

I preview each Quarterfinal game here, and my picks along with Nick Bartlett’s, Stephen Vilardo’s, and Anthony Gharib’s appear at the bottom.

The previews and Stephen Vilardo’s Pac-12 Tournament Team Capsules and Season and Tournament Stat Notes should get you ready for today’s games.

No. 8 Arizona State v. No. 1 Oregon

Thursday, March 11
11:30 AM PT, Pac-12 Network

The opening game for the No. 1 seed is never easy.

The historic trend in this matchup is for the top-rated team to struggle in the first ten minutes, as they face a program normally coming off a hard-fought battle on Wednesday. That pattern could continue today, as the Sun Devils are confident from their close win over Washington State, despite a poor game from Remy Martin.

But Dana Altman’s Ducks are playing better than anyone else in the Pac-12 over the past few weeks. And there’s no doubt that his players feel slighted from the league awards that went to the Trojan players and coach.

The motivation from the snubs should be on full display this tournament, even if the first ten minutes of this matchup goes the Sun Devils’ way.

The deciding-factor figures to be ASU’s ability to handle UO’s press-zone. Bobby Hurley has interchangeable guards that can handle the pressure, but the Ducks’ system finds ways to force the ball into the hands of bigs near mid-court, which invariably leads to turnovers.

In that sense, Arizona State’s Kimani Lawrence and Jalen Graham arguably become the focal point. If the bigs are able to adjust to the pressure Oregon creates and successfully navigate the zone, the Sun Devils could keep it close into the latter stages of the second half.

Omoruyi

But slowing down the Oregon offense might be too much to ask. Chris Duarte could play like a man on a mission after inexplicably losing out on the Pac-12 Player of the Year award.

And the sometimes shaky ASU defense projects to leave plenty of open space for Eugene Omoruyi to have a strong game.

It may tip off before noon, but this matchup could be one of the better games of the day.

No. 5 Oregon State v. No. 4 UCLA

Thursday, March 11
2:30 PM PT, Pac-12 Network

The Beavers’ season went better than anyone predicted, but Wayne Tinkles’ year could go from good to great with an upset win over UCLA today.

The Bruins are still wondering what happened in the waning minutes at Pauley Pavilion against the Trojans, yet Mick Cronin likely has his team ready to put that debacle behind them. And with a win against OSU already under their belt, UCLA won’t be anxious before this game the way that Colorado and USC might be, as each of those programs face teams that have beat them this season.

Thompson

Still, Ethan Thompson, Warith Alatishe, and Jarod Lucas present plenty of challenges for Cronin and his staff. The trio combine for 37.7 points per game and do it in different ways: ball handling and penetration, three point shooting, and shots in the paint.

Slowing them down figures to be the primary talking points of the game-plan, and Cronin likely emphasizes the need to play the Bruins’ own game. There’s a reason that the second-year coach is known for his defense, and even though that side of the ball has been weaker this season, the underlying system remains sturdy.

All but two of UCLA’s defeats have come when it gives up 70 points or more, which indicates that their success still starts and ends on defense. And with offensive weapons capable of out-scoring anyone they play, the Pac-12 Tournament Championship could return to Westwood on the back of lockdown defense.

When it comes down to it, the Beavers shoot 43.2% from the field, and if UCLA holds them below that average, Cronin likely advances to the semifinals.

No. 7 Utah v. No. 2 USC

Thursday, March 11
5:30PM PT, Pac-12 Network

The Utes are hot. And Larry Krystkowiak has a plan.

usc logoAfter Utah’s victory against Washington on Wednesday, the 10th-year coach gave an interview to the Pac-12 Network in which he appeared confident in his strategy for the matchup against USC. And coming off a convincing win over the Trojans in Salt Lake City, Krystkowiak might be justified.

Similarly, Alfonzo Plummer gave off the impression that they expected to be in this situation, and even acted as though he wasn’t satisfied with his own game—a 6-for-11 night from three.

That’s a dangerous combination for Andy Enfield.

Allen

The Utes have the capability to pull off this upset, and based on their position in the bracket, could even advance to the championship game, if the cards fall right. This is a team that took Oregon down to the wire in Eugene, beat Colorado in Boulder, and was one untimely Pelle Larsson turnover away from upsetting UCLA at Pauley Pavilion.

Timmy Allen continues to play lights-out, and Mikael Jantunen’s shot selection is on point. Throw in Krystkowiak’s shortened rotation, and Utah is deadly.

E. Mobley

But Enfield has the Pac-12 Player of the Year in Evan Mobley, and a defined leader in Tahj Eaddy. Still, the deciding-factor might come down to the play of Drew Peterson, particularly his shooting from the perimeter. Timely threes from the Rice transfer could change the game, or a cold night could result in a USC loss.

Either way, this showdown figures to be the Game of the Day in Vegas.

No. 11 California v. No. 3 Colorado

Thursday, March 11
8:30pm PT, ESPN

Death, taxes, and Mark Fox beating Stanford in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Some things don’t change, apparently, as Cal once again took down its rival in the First Round on Wednesday. The unexpected outcome creates a rematch of one of CU’s head-scratching defeats in the regular season, albeit at a neutral site this time around.

Normally, such a matchup would be concerning for the favorite, but Tad Boyle’s senior leadership and the Buffs’ free throw shooting substantially eases the pressure. McKinley Wright IV and the four other seniors in the rotation should provide a steady hand in the event of a strong start from the Bears.

Wright IV

And in crunch time, the ability to consistently knock down shots from the charity stripe should be enough to propel Colorado to victory, if Cal is able to keep it close.

That’s not to say the Bears don’t have a chance, by any means. In fact, Fox’s team is probably more confident facing Boyle’s squad than they would be against any other team in the league.

That being said, the motivation to avenge the shocking defeat in Berkeley is an overpowering tool that should spur a strong start from Colorado that carries it through the rest of the game. Look for the Buffs to work from the inside-out, making a point to get the ball into the paint and then finding open shooters on the perimeter.

And even though curveballs sometimes happen in the quarterfinals, it’s going to take a near perfect game from California to get it done.

 




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