Posted on July 20, 2023
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The league’s media rights saga figures to take center stage with talk of television negotiations detracting from one of the deepest and most competitive Pac-12 fields since expansion in 2011.
I preview some of the biggest storylines surrounding the event here, including Media Rights issues, projected Players and Coach of the Year, the two most pivotal games, and my initial preseason Power Rankings.
I will also be providing on-the-ground reactions from the event and reporting significant news as it breaks with a summary in this space at the end of the day.
Media Rights Issues
The Pac-12 still hasn’t finalized its media rights deal after a year of eliciting offers.The terms of the eventual contract could determine whether or not Colorado and Arizona bolt for the Big 12. To say a lot is riding on Commissioner George Kliavkoff’s deal is an understatement.
Details of negotiations with potential partners have been scarce, but reading between the lines, Apple appears to be the Conference’s last hope.
The phone and computer maker already has an arrangement with Major League Soccer and a streaming platform to deliver service via Apple TV. Its reach is worldwide and its headquarters are in California.
Reported to be interested in acquiring additional sports rights, Apple could use the Pac-12 as a building block in its plan to emerge as a bigger player in the sports media market.
As for linear exposure, ESPN seems to be the primary bidder for the second-tier rights, but that’s speculation at best. The cable channel could also broker a third-party streaming deal as it did with the ACC and The CW.
Whichever media company ends up signing with the Pac-12, it’s all about getting the right number on the table.
The Big 12’s deal is reported to provide each member school with around $31.7 million per year. To keep Colorado and Arizona from jumping, the number will need to be comparable.
Players of the Year, Coach of the Year, and Top Games
Offensive Player of the Year: Caleb Williams, USC
The numbers don’t lie.
USC’s Caleb Williams was dominant last season and projects to pick up where he left off. The Trojan junior led the nation in passing touchdowns, ranked No. 3 in passing yards, and No. 5 in passing efficiency.
The only other Pac-12 players who seem capable of challenging Williams at this point of the summer are Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix.
Both passed for more than 3,500 yards last season, and each scored 30-plus combined passing and rushing touchdowns.
Penix had a lower completion percentage than Williams and Nix, and there’s a reasonable argument that he’s a “system quarterback.”
Williams is a more willing runner, too, as is Nix.
The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner ran for 382 yards with 10 scores on the ground, whereas Penix rushed for 92 yards and four touchdowns. Nix outdid both with 510 yards and 14 TDs rushing.
All things considered, the impressive playmaking versatility of Williams sets him apart from the other two.
Defensive Player of the Year: Laiatu Latu, UCLA
After finishing No. 8 in the nation in sacks last year with 10.5, Latu is a problem.
The senior is primed for a strong year in part due to an underrated supporting cast around him. With multiple weapons along the front seven, the Bruins’ linemen and linebackers are flying under the radar.
Look for Latu to thrive under new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
Coach of the Year: Kalen DeBoer, Washington
Kalen DeBoer’s spread principles with heavy pre and post-snap movement revitalized the Husky program in a single season.
Designed to get playmakers into open space, DeBoer’s offense is one of the most prolific in all of College Football. With another year to expand the playbook, UW figures to be one of the top teams in the nation.
Nonconference Game of the Year: USC at Notre Dame
Arguably no other game in the Pac-12 this season will have a larger impact on perceptions of the league’s Playoff chances than USC’s trip to Notre Dame.
If the Trojans end up carrying the Conference banner as expected, a defeat to the Irish could seriously damage the League’s chances of landing a Playoff spot—at least in the minds of many.
A win, on the other hand, could potentially set the Trojans up for a birth, or provide another Pac-12 contender with a quality opponent to earn a CFP bid with Championship Game win.
Washington at Michigan State, Florida at Utah, and Utah at Baylor offer additional opportunities for the league to boost its Playoff aspirations.
But USC’s beneficial schedule could see the Trojans entering the matchup undefeated, and there’s no denying the consequential impact on the Pac-12’s reputation.
Conference Game of the Year: USC at Oregon
Depending on how the cards fall, USC could be entering Eugene with a 10-0 record and on the verge of the Playoff.If history is an indication, the Trojans are unlikely to lose to Utah at the Coliseum and should find a way to take care of Washington in L.A. as well.
And assuming Williams does enough in South Bend, it’s not unreasonable to expect USC to walk into Autzen Stadium with an unblemished record.
The Ducks, on the other hand, have to go to Seattle and Salt Lake City before hosting the Trojans. Both of those matchups could end in defeats, making the showdown with SC a season-defining contest for Oregon.
The game has all the makings for an Instant Classic that could keep the Trojans out of the Playoff.
Preseason Power Rankings
1. Utah
2. USC
3. Washington
4. Oregon
5. Oregon State
6. UCLA
7. Washington State
8. Arizona
9. California
10. Arizona State
11. Colorado
12. Stanford
Until someone knocks off the back-to-back Pac-12 Champions, the road to the title runs through Salt Lake City.
For whatever reason, the Utes are doubted every year. Yet, they continue to rise to the top and are now seeking their third-straight Conference crown.
Maybe it’s because SLC doesn’t have the allure of Los Angeles. Or maybe it’s because the Ute program doesn’t have the nationwide respect of Oregon.
Who knows, it might even be that Andy Ludwig’s offense isn’t as flashy as Kalen DeBoer’s.
Regardless, Utah remains under-regarded both nationally and regionally. But with Cam Rising returning along with seven starters on defense, you have to wonder why the Utes aren’t given the credit they deserve.
Quick Hits and Notes
• Playoff Hopes: Could this finally be the Pac-12’s year? After missing the Playoff every season since Washington’s 2016 team, the Conference seems poised to rejoin the postseason’s biggest party.
USC is the front-runner, but Utah, Washington, and Oregon are in the mix as well. And although they don’t have as much national respect, Oregon State could sneak in with a relatively favorable schedule.
All told, the Conference legitimately has five contenders that could end up as one of the four teams invited.
• Utah Three-Peat: Overlooked and underrated, Utah is seeking its third-straight Pac-12 Championship in 2023.
With the offensive and defensive lines to best anyone in the Conference, the Utes have staying power. But to three-peat, the Utes must find a way to split tough road games against Washington and USC.
It’s not a favorable schedule compared to other teams in the Conference, and a two-loss season in league play probably won’t be enough to get back to the Championship Game.
• Bowl Bound?: California, Arizona, and Arizona State are each in a position to contend for a bowl game. All three programs have upgraded their rosters and have the talent to reach six wins.
The Sun Devils are probably the outliers in Kenny Dillingham’s debut season. But Justin Wilcox in Berkeley and Jedd Fisch in Tucson surely expect to reach the postseason.
Another bowl-less year could be the straw that breaks the back of Wilcox’s tenure at Cal. For Fisch, bowl eligibility would add fuel to UA’s already raging fire on the recruiting trail.
• Stanford’s Future: Troy Taylor is rebuilding Stanford’s brand. Currently boasting the nation’s No. 16 recruiting class in the Class of 2024, per 247Sports, Taylor has already secured commitments from four 4-star recruits.
It’s still early, but Taylor’s recruiting method seems to fit the mindset on The Farm. He appears to have turned Stanford’s high academic standards into an asset that could produce Top 25 classes year in and year out.
Taylor has it figured out in his first year and is positioning the Cardinal on the right track for the foreseeable future.
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