Mark Schmor's Week Five College Football Top 25

Posted on September 29, 2021


  By Mark Schmor, SuperWest Sports

Last week I suggested that we may be on hand for the most chaotic college football season in over a decade. Nothing could be more illustrative of that chaos than what has happened to Clemson.

The Tigers have made six consecutive appearances in the College Football Playoff, and their participation in a seventh straight playoff seemed all but guaranteed entering this year.

But with a 2-2 start to their season, Clemson’s national championship hopes are now on life support.

The fact that the Tigers have lost two games is not the primary concern. It’s how Clemson has lost those two games that has many scratching their heads.

A year after averaging more than 43 points per game, Clemson has managed just 38 points combined in their three games against FBS opponents (Georgia, Georgia Tech, NC State).

Against the Wolfpack on Saturday, the Tigers managed just 10 first downs (while giving up 31).

As it relates to these weekly rankings, the underperformance of Clemson makes it particularly difficult to rank teams coherently.

When possible, I’m trying to lean as much as possible on each team’s actual performance on the field. But think about the path that takes us down as it relates to Clemson:

• Clemson lost in overtime to North Carolina State.
• NC State previously lost convincingly to Mississippi State.
• Mississippi State lost in controversial fashion to Memphis.
• Memphis just to lost to Texas-San Antonio, which remains undefeated.

By this logic, an undefeated UTSA might be one of the best teams in the country. I’m not going to go that far. The transitive property has been disproven as a predictor of head-to-head results.

But I did promise to keep these rankings volatile in relation to each week’s results, and I want to offer some explanation as to why UTSA finds itself in these rankings and Clemson does not.

Clemson may very well rally and finish 10-2 and the Roadrunners may very well stub their toes against a winless UNLV team this week. There’s just not much from the month of September to suggest that will be the case.

Tier 1

1 — Alabama

Alabama beat Southern Mississippi 63-14. Nothing more about this game needs to be said. This week the Tide will host a prolific offensive team in Ole Miss in what figures to be one the toughest games remaining on Bama’s schedule.

2 — Georgia

Georgia survived a scare from Vanderbilt and escaped with a 62-0 victory.

Georgia has absolutely destroyed their last three opponents by a combined score of 158-20 and I’m convinced that Georgia and Alabama have separated themselves from the rest of the field in a meaningful way.

However, like Alabama, Georgia will face one of their biggest tests of the year this week when they host a red-hot Arkansas team.

Tier 2

3 — Oregon

As much as I wanted to keep Oregon in the top tier, I just couldn’t justify it.

On the same day that Georgia was beating a bad Vanderbilt team 62-0, Oregon was clinging to a 24-19 lead over winless Arizona entering the fourth quarter before rattling off 17 straight points to close the game.

Oregon has some vulnerabilities. Quarterback Anthony Brown has proven to be effective running the option but he lacks a precise touch on deeper throws, and his receivers have also had some untimely drops.

The run game has been a bit inconsistent. The defense is a bend-but-don’t-break unit that gives up a lot of yards.

On the other hand, Oregon seems to have fixed the two biggest problems that plagued last year’s team; most notably, going a disastrous -9 in turnover margin.

This year’s squad has only turned the ball over once (a fumble in Week 1 vs. Fresno) and has forced 12 turnovers (which doesn’t even count their three separate fourth down stops against Ohio State).

On Saturday night they picked off Arizona’s Jordan McCloud five times, turning one of those takeaways into a 68-yard pick six by Bennett Williams that essentially clinched the game.

Football is a simple game. If Oregon continues to take care of the ball on offense and take the ball away on defense, they should be fine.

4 — Arkansas

Two weeks after dominating their former Southwest Conference rival Texas, Arkansas dominated their former Southwest Conference rival Texas A&M.

Yes, the score was only 20-10, which implies a close game, but it didn’t feel that close. Arkansas jumped out to a 17-0 lead and Texas A&M never really threatened to make it interesting.

The Aggies’ lone touchdown came on a 67 yard run halfway through the third quarter. After that score, A&M managed just 41 yards on their last four drives of the game which included an interception and a failed fourth down conversion.

All the red flags that were raised about Texas A&M’s stagnant offense during their uninspiring victory over Colorado a couple weeks ago were validated in this game.

Let’s put this ranking of Arkansas into perspective. Texas was ranked in the top 15 when they beat them and Texas A&M was ranked in the top 10 when they beat them.

We’ll get to Texas later, but I think the Texas win will look a lot better in December than the A&M win will. For now, I think it makes sense to celebrate both as landmark wins for a program trying to establish itself as an SEC contender.

As much as it pains me to have three SEC teams near the top of these rankings, I take some solace in knowing it will be short-term. The Razorbacks travel to Georgia next week in a game that will serve as either confirmation or correction of this ranking.

5 — Penn State

Penn State took care of business against Villanova but their resume took a bit of a hit when Wisconsin took a beating from Notre Dame and Auburn escaped an upset attempt from Georgia State by the skin of their teeth.

What were once considered two great wins against top 20 caliber teams now seem like two good wins against teams that may not be as good as advertised. I’m giving the Nittany Lions the benefit of the doubt for now.

6 — Iowa

Iowa was actually trailing 14-7 at the half to Colorado State before pulling away for a 24-14 win. I’m not as concerned by that result as I would be with some teams because it seems like Iowa is conditioned to win every game 24-14.

I’m exaggerating…Well, kind of. The average score of an Iowa game this year is 29-11.

Iowa doesn’t blow teams off the field. They just methodically squeeze the life out of the opposing offense and provide enough scoring of their own to provide a comfortable cushion.

Iowa’s October schedule includes Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin, so it will be interesting to see if they can maintain this success against a higher-caliber of opponent.

7 — Notre Dame

Notre Dame has probably been the toughest team for me to crack during this first month. First, I was impressed by their win at Florida State because it involved overcoming the spirit of the late Bobby Bowden.

Then I was less than impressed by their close win over Toledo. Then I didn’t really know what to do with their win over Purdue.

(NOTE: Purdue might actually be pretty good. Also, their season opening win over Oregon State is looking better and better each week as the Beavers are looking really good. They throttled USC in the Coliseum.)

In evaluating the Irish this week, I have no choice but to be impressed by their 41-13 win over what I consider to be a pretty good Wisconsin team (although that Wisconsin team could be 1-3 if they lose to Michigan this week).

At least I’m really impressed by Notre Dame’s defense.

That unit held Wisconsin to 1-of-15 on third down conversions, limited the normally overpowering Badger rushing attack to just 75 yards on the ground, and forced five turnovers including pick sixes on consecutive drives in the final minutes.

If this is the way they’re going to play the rest of the year, Notre Dame’s D should keep them in just about every game they play.

The Notre Dame offense is another story. They managed just 9 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Read that sentence again: They managed just 9 rushing yards on 32 attempts. And somehow won the game! By 28 points! With just 9 rushing yards?!?!

Not only that, but they somehow won the game after their starting quarterback Jack Coan (a Wisconsin transfer) was knocked out of the game with an injury. Notre Dame’s O should keep their opponent in every game they play this year.

8 — Cincinnati

Notre Dame’s next opponent? That would be the Cincinnati Bearcats who sat idle this week and no doubt enjoyed seeing five ranked teams lose.

Cincinnati’s playoff hopes largely rest on things they can’t control so their best-case scenario includes unmitigated chaos for everyone else.

Except for Notre Dame. Cincinnati’s best-case scenario also includes a win over a top ten Notre Dame team. That’s now the part they can control. If the Bearcats win this Saturday, you can bet they’ll be cheering hard for the Irish the rest of the season.

Tier 3

9 — Florida

Florida has come as close as anyone to beating Alabama so there’s an argument they should be ranked higher than this based on that fact alone.

I’ve been waiting for the Gators to notch a convincing win over a power five school and they did that with a 38-14 win against Tennessee.

Playing at Kentucky this week will be an even bigger test as the Wildcats are already out to a 2-0 start in the SEC with wins over Missouri and South Carolina.

10 — Fresno State

Fresno State fell behind winless UNLV 14-0 before rallying for a 38-30 win that was still in doubt until the final minute. UNLV is on a 10-game losing streak.

They started their season with a loss to Eastern Washington. Prior to their game with Fresno, they lost 48-3 to Iowa State. A team as good as Fresno has no business almost losing to a team like UNLV.

And yet, Fresno rallied when they needed to. A week after Jake Haener played the game of his life in a win over UCLA, he was awesome once again in throwing for 378 yards and five touchdowns.

For the fourth consecutive game, Haener distributed the ball to at least nine different receivers. Despite this being a close call against an objectively bad team, I still came away from this game liking what I saw from Fresno.

Since they’ve already got the quality win over UCLA and the close loss to Oregon, I still consider their resume to be better than that of Ohio State’s, so I’m keeping them ahead of the Buckeyes and consider their performance against UNLV to be the outlier.

11 — Ohio St

Ohio State dominated Akron in predictable fashion, winning 59-7.

There’s still good reason to believe this Buckeyes team will go on to win the Big Ten and challenge for a playoff spot, but their best win of the season is over a Minnesota team who just lost to Bowling Green as 30-point favorites.

This week the Buckeyes go to Rutgers. Since the Scarlet Knights just gave Michigan a pretty competitive game, it could be an interesting point of comparison.

12 — UCLA

The Bruins bounced back from their heartbreaking loss to Fresno State with an impressive 35-24 win over Stanford.

Stanford is normally considered the most physical team in the Pac-12 so it’s worth noting that the Bruins out-rushed the Cardinal 204-67.

Now UCLA turns their attention to Arizona State in a game which could determine the winner of the Pac-12 South.

Tier 4

13 — BYU

I dropped BYU a few spots after an uninspiring 35-27 win over South Florida. Since this was the week in which several highly ranked teams struggled to put away bad teams, I’m not hammering BYU for the margin of their victory.

I’m just not sure how to value their string of Pac-12 wins right now.

I had to think about it this way. If BYU was in the Pac-12 South, do I think they’d win that division?

For now, I’d still keep UCLA the favorite but I’ll be tracking how they compare against common opponents since BYU has already played three Pac-12 South teams this season and will add a fourth when they end the year against USC.

14 — Oklahoma State and Baylor (TIE)

Yes, I’m cheating here by listing two teams. It’s just that I feel similarly about Oklahoma State and Baylor.

Oklahoma State posted an impressive 31-20 win over a fundamentally sound Kansas State team in a win that announced the Cowboys as contenders in the Big 12.

Baylor posted an impressive 31-29 win over a fundamentally sound Iowa State team in a win that announced the Bears as contenders in the Big 12.

We won’t have to wait long to break the tie as Oklahoma State and Baylor play each other on Saturday night.

15 — Ole Miss

Ole Miss enjoyed a bye this past weekend. I take that back. I’m guessing they didn’t really enjoy the bye seeing as how they were preparing for a trip to Tuscaloosa.

If Ole Miss somehow springs the upset over Alabama, their reward is a home date with Arkansas. The SEC is about to cannibalize itself and I can’t wait.

16 — Maryland

In this week’s segment of “Taking the Temperature of Taulia Tagovailoa’s Terrapins,” we see that the Terps torpedoed Kent State by 21 in a game that didn’t tell us a ton.

However, Maryland’s season opening win over West Virginia looks even stronger now that the Mountaineers took Oklahoma down to the wire. This coming Friday, Maryland goes after an even bigger win as they host No. 5 Iowa.

17 — Oklahoma

As referenced above, Oklahoma got everything it could handle from West Virginia, winning 16-13 on a last-second field goal.

It was the third game Oklahoma has played against an unranked FBS opponent and the third time Oklahoma has sweated out a win in the final minutes.

At this point, I think we know what we’re getting with Oklahoma.

18 — Michigan State

Remember when I made a big deal about Notre Dame winning by 28 despite having just 9 rushing yards against Wisconsin?

Well, that wasn’t the only bizarre stat from Saturday’’s action. Michigan State pulled out a come-from-behind overtime win against Nebraska despite not picking up a first down in the second half.

Wait, let me say that same thing a couple different ways to drive the point home.

Michigan State had a 3-and-out on every possession in the second half.

Michigan State had 14 yards of offense on 15 plays in the second half.

And still, Michigan State overcame a 7-point deficit in the final minutes thanks to Jayden Reed’s 62-yard punt return.

Nebraska fans have to be wondering what they did to alienate the football gods.

After the Cornhuskers played Oklahoma tough last week, I’m starting to think Nebraska will be a tough out for a lot of teams the rest of the season.

Nevertheless, I’m a little less confident in Sparty than I was last week and I’ve adjusted their ranking as a result.

19 — Wake Forest

Wake Forest has quietly posted an undefeated September which now includes a 21-point win over Florida State and a 20-point win over Virginia.

They have a defense that has yet to give up more than 17 points, and they have an offense that has yet to score less than 35.

If they can win at home this week against Louisville, they’ll follow that up with winnable games versus Syracuse, Army, and Duke. Could we be seeing an 8-0 Demon Deacons heading into November?

20 — Michigan

The SEC West won’t be the only division cannibalizing itself over the next two months. The Big Ten East should be doing something similar.

Michigan brought the nation’s best rushing offense into conference play and came out of their matchup against a scrappy Rutgers team with a 20-13 victory.

After rushing for over 300 yards per game in their first three games, Michigan managed just 112 against the Scarlet Knights team, which figure to be the worst team in the division. That may say just as much about Rutgers as it says about Michigan.

21 — UTSA

I mentioned UTSA’s win over Memphis in the opening. They also have a power five win over Illinois under their belt, which means they enter October having already beaten the two best teams on their schedule.

There are some teams in Conference USA that could trip them up, but the Roadrunners are the clear conference favorite.

They also have the best named player in college football in running back Sincere McCormick. McCormick is an old school workhorse. He had 31 carries for 117 yards against Illinois and then a whopping 42 carries for 184 yards against Memphis.

22 — Coastal Carolina

Coastal Carolina posted a 53-3 win over UMass so their drop in my rankings doesn’t have anything to do with how they’re playing.

The main reason I put them behind new arrivals like UTSA and Wake Forest is just because those teams have beaten some tougher opponents.

The strategy for the Chanticleers going forward is to win their Sun Belt games convincingly while hoping all the other Group of Five teams hit a stumbling block.

Tier 5

23 — North Carolina State

Here we arrive at the complicated case of North Carolina State.

In the case of other teams, when they pull out a top 10 win like the Wolfpack grabbed against Clemson, I have rewarded them by placing them relatively high in my own rankings.

Yet, NC State presents a different case. Prior to beating Clemson, they had fallen 24-10 to a Mississippi State team that is expected to finish last in the SEC West.

You’ll notice I don’t have Mississippi State ahead of NC State and I’m afraid that’s the type of inconsistency that will creep into this poll from time to time.

Since those two played in mid-September, Mississippi State has lost twice to Memphis and LSU so it felt strange to now reward the Bulldogs now for a win they claimed a few weeks ago.

Can NC State keep this momentum going? Well, this week they play a Louisiana Tech team that has already lost on a Hail Mary to SMU and managed to blow a 20-point fourth quarter lead to…Mississippi State. College football is a small world.

24 — Texas

Is there a team that had a better week than Texas?

Still smarting from their loss to Arkansas a couple weeks prior, the Longhorns took out their aggression on Texas Tech with a 70-35 thrashing.

Meanwhile, their primary conference rival Oklahoma looked vulnerable yet again and their historic rival Texas A&M took a similar beating from Arkansas. Just like that, things are looking up in Austin again.

25 — Auburn and LSU (TIE)

I’m reluctant to include Auburn in this week’s rankings after some last minute heroics were needed just to get by Georgia State.

Auburn still has not beaten a Power 5 opponent so fans of undefeated teams like Boston College and Kentucky may be understandably offended that Auburn is included in these rankings when they are not.