Posted on March 10, 2022
|
But the Quarterfinals are where the action truly begins.
NCAA Tournament hopes are on the line today, with only Arizona, UCLA, and USC currently projected to make the Field of 68.
That leaves four teams whose seasons might be over with a loss, and all four should play like their lives depend on it.
I preview the quarterfinal games here, and my picks along with Stephen Vilardo’s appear at the bottom.
No. 9 Stanford v. No. 1 Arizona
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Thursday, March 10
Noon PT, Pac-12 Network
The winner of the 8-9 matchup is always riding a wave of momentum after securing the victory on Wednesday, usually coming out hot from the field.
Combined with Arizona’s occasional tendency to start slow, the score of this matchup could be surprising by the first TV timeout. But the 1-seed always gets it together by the middle of the second half.
The Wildcats don’t have any disadvantages on paper, and Tommy Lloyd won’t hold back the reins now that it’s March.
Yet, if the Cardinal wind up holding a significant rebounding advantage, Jerod Haase’s team might have a chance.
While the Cats swept the Pac-12 awards, Kerr Kriisa was left off the All-Conference selections. The Estonian guard doesn’t need extra motivation to turn it up, but the slap in the face is sure to light a fire under him.
Look for Kriisa to have a hot game from deep and Arizona to win by double-digits.
No. 5 Oregon v. No. 4 Colorado
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Thursday, March 10
2:30 pm PT, Pac-12 Network
The Ducks remain without Will Richardson, but Jacob Young seamlessly took over the lead point guard role. With Young running the offense, Oregon posted 19 assists, which tied its season-high set in November.
In an even matchup on paper, Colorado’s three-point shooting and UO’s rebounding figure to determine the game.
The Buffs are the top 3-point percentage shooting team in the Conference, knocking down 36.5 percent of their shots.
Dana Altman’s squad, on the other hand, is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. The Ducks sit ninth in the Pac-12 in rebounds per game, ahead of only California, Washington, and Oregon State.
Yet, if Oregon can defend the perimeter effectively and out-rebound CU, the Ducks may survive and advance.
But if the Buffaloes dominate the glass and limit their turnovers, Colorado could end up one step closer to the Big Dance.
No. 7 Washington State v. No. 2 UCLA
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Thursday, March 10
6:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network
Top to bottom, UCLA is one of the deepest teams in the country and has plenty of March experience.
Other than an edge in blocked shots per game, free throw percentage, and a slight advantage in rebounds per game, the Bruins outclass Washington State on paper.
The trio of Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyger Campbell, and Johnny Juzang received First Team All-Conference honors, while Jules Bernard puts up 12.3 points per game on his own.
And with Jaylen Clark, David Singleton, Peyton Watson, Cody Riley, and Myles Johnson comprising the rest of the rotation, Mick Cronin has himself a dangerous team.
But it’s UCLA’s decision-making and ball security that set it above nearly every team in the country. Averaging just 8.8 turnovers per game, the Bruins are fourth in Division I basketball at taking care of the rock.
For WSU to pull off the upset, it must create double-digit turnovers and convert those TO’s into points.
No. 6 Washington v. No. 3 USC
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Thursday, March 10
8:30 pm PT, FS1
The Dawgs’ offense was humming on Wednesday night against Utah, but SC has a far superior defense than the Utes.
Holding the 54th-best defensive efficiency rating according to KenPom, Andy Enfield’s roster presents a challenge for UW’s one-on-one offense.
Drew Peterson and Max Agbonkpolo have the height to frustrate Terrell Brown Jr.
The duo helped limit Brown to 38.8 percent shooting in the first matchup, while the rest of the USC defense kept UW’s role players in check.
Offensive rebounding figures to play a large role tonight, where second-chance opportunities could tip the scales in either direction.
But to upset the Trojans, Mike Hopkins probably needs his secondary scorers to step up. Cole Bajema went 1-for-7 at the Galen Center, while Jamal Bey, PJ Fuller, and Nate Roberts combined for 11 points on 15 shots.
The availability of Daejon Davis this time around could change the dynamics, but it’s going to take a full team effort to get the job done.
Still, teams never know if the slipper fits until March, and the Huskies get their chance to try it on tonight.
Round 2 Pac-12 Tournament Game Picks
—More from Dane Miller—
- Dane Miller’s Arizona vs. Clemson Sweet 16 Preview
- Dane Miller’s Pac-12 NCAA Tournament 2nd-Round Previews
- Dane Miller’s Pac-12 Friday 1st-Round Big Dance Preview
- Dane Miller’s Pac-12 1st-Round NCAA Tournament Previews
- Dane Miller’s 2024 Pac-12 Tournament Title Preview
- Dane Miller’s 2024 Pac-12 Tournament Semifinal Previews
- Dane Miller’s Pac-12 Tournament Previews for Mar 14
- Dane Miller’s Pac-12 Tournament Previews for Mar 13
- Daylight Savings Time & Jackson Shelstad’s Great Season
- Dane Miller’s Pac-12 Men’s Hoops Previews for Mar. 7
- Dane Miller’s Week 17 Pac-12 Hoops Players of Week Votes
- Dane Miller’s Pac-12 Men’s Hoops Previews for Mar. 2
- Miller: Why Don’t More People Know About KJ Simpson?
- Dane Miller’s Pac-12 Men’s Hoops Previews for Feb. 29
- Dane Miller’s Pac-12 Men’s Hoops Previews for Feb. 28
-
Dane Miller’s Arizona vs. Clemson Sweet 16 Preview
The Wildcats face the Tigers in Los Angeles with a chance to advance to the Elite Eight - March 28, 2024 -
Dane Miller’s Pac-12 NCAA Tournament 2nd-Round Previews
Arizona, Washington State, and Oregon will look to keep the conference momentum going - March 22, 2024 -
Dane Miller’s Pac-12 Friday 1st-Round Big Dance Preview
Colorado plays the lone conference game today as the Buffs are set to take on 7-seed Florida - March 22, 2024