Oregon State at Utah

Thursday, January 18
6:00 pm PT, ESPN2

Oregon State has yet to win a true road game but had respectable showings against the Washington schools.

The Huntsman Center, however, is on another level. Utah has one of the top homecourt advantages in the Pac-12 and it could be on full display against Wayne Tinkle’s squad.

The Utes are a strong shooting and rebounding team. Craig Smith’s roster shares the ball better than most teams in the country and are above-average in limiting turnovers.

That’s a solid recipe for a successful team.

Combined with a clearly defined identity and players accepting their roles, Utah is well on its way to returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2015-16 season.

To take care of the Beavers, the keys are keeping Tyler Bilodeau and Dexter Akanno contained. Jordan Pope is going to get his points, yet the Beavs are beatable even if he scores 20 or more.

That makes the supporting role players the deciding factor. Bilodeau has been on a roll lately, scoring 26 against USC, 21 against Washington, and 17 against Stanford.

At 6-foot-9 and 220 pounds, he presents a challenge for some rosters.

Branden Carlson figures to draw the initial assignment and Ben Carlson might take over the duties at times. Both are adequately built to frustrate the sophomore forward.

Akanno, on the other hand, is more of a pass-first guard who takes about half of his shots from three.

As long as the Utah backcourt prevents Akanno from getting open looks, the Utes should win by double-digits.

Washington at California

Thursday, January 18
6:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network

He did a great job at Utah Valley, runs solid offensive schemes, and brought in plenty of talent via the transfer portal.

Matched up against a Washington team that struggles on the road, the possibility of an “upset” is real.

But Sahvir Wheeler has been playing at an All-Conference level the past few weeks and the Huskies have a capable offense.

Since the start of the year, Wheeler is 33-for-53 (62.2 percent) from the field including 7-for-10 (70.0 percent) from deep.

He’s also continuing to dish out assists at a high level, posting 17 over the last four games.

An elite finisher around the rim, Wheeler is hard to slow down. But he does make mistakes.

The Washington point guard is averaging 3.0 turnovers per game over the last four matchups including six against UCLA on Sunday.

Yet, the Bears aren’t known for their defense and enter the game dead-last in the Pac-12 in turnovers forced per game. That could be a problem facing a Washington team that’s 54th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric.

To overcome the shortcomings on defense, Jaylon Tyson, Fardaws Aimaq, and Jalen Cone might all need to have strong games.

Cone, in particular, is arguably the key. On one hand, his shooting inefficiency hurts the team. But on the other, his passing is pivotal.

Since the start of the new year, Cone has 11 assists to just one turnover but has shot 12-of-35 (34.2 percent) from the field.

If he facilitates the offense more often instead of taking 12.7 shots per game, California will have a better chance of securing the win.

Oregon at Colorado

Thursday, January 18
7:30 pm PT, FS1

The Ducks have struggled at the Coors Events Center, going 1-8 in the arena since the Buffs joined the Pac-12.

But Colorado looked shaky against an undermanned USC squad and has lost three of their last four.

Dana Altman’s team, on the other hand, hasn’t lost since December 17th and is riding a six-game winning streak with victories over the LA schools and the Washington schools.

Both teams have elite scoring offenses.

The Ducks are No. 35 in KenPom’s metric while CU is No. 39. They have comparable field goal and three-point percentage numbers, yet Tad Boyle’s group is a far stronger free throw shooting unit.

Oregon is one of the top teams in the country at limiting turnovers, however, which could pay dividends on the road.

Altman’s roster leads the Pac-12 in turnovers committed per game and the Buffs are eighth in the Conference at forcing them.

That’s an analytical matchup that certainly favors Oregon.

If the UO guards can run the offense without committing mistakes, extra possessions will be limited, and fast break opportunities will be negated.

From a personnel standpoint, the primary question on the Oregon sideline is: Who will guard Tristan da Silva?

The Ducks are guard-heavy and don’t have a player that jumps out as the clear choice. The senior forward averages 15.9 points per game while shooting 52.0 percent from the field.

Altman will likely rotate a variety of players on da Silva to find the most effective matchup. But CU’s second-leading scorer could go off.

The rest of the matchups are more even. N’Faly Dante is an ideal fit for Eddie Lampkin Jr. while Jackson Shelstad and KJ Simpson figure to go toe-for-toe.

The X-Factor is Cody Williams. The 6-foot-8 and 190-pound freshman forward is another matchup problem that Oregon could struggle with.

If Williams has an efficient night from the field, the Ducks could once again leave Boulder with a loss.

Washington State at Stanford

Thursday, January 18
8:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network

Both programs are on an upward trajectory and have the roster talent to make the NCAA Tournament.

The Cougars have one of the top defenses in the country, entering the game No. 30 nationally in field goal percentage defense. That leads the Conference and puts Wazzu in a position to win games in a variety of ways.

Kyle Smith’s players are well-coached and run solid schemes. The defenders always get a hand in their opponents’ faces and easy looks are never afforded.

WSU’s defensive rebounding is strong, too. The Cougs come into the game as the No. 60 team nationally in defensive rebounds per game.

But Stanford is a dangerous team at home.

Jerod Haase’s program posted victories over Utah and Arizona, indicating the strength of the Cardinal’s roster this season.

For the Cougars to get the victory, they must defend the three. Stanford has interchangeable guards and forwards that can knock down their outside shots, along with a big that can connect from deep.

Five players average in double-figures and the rotation is legitimately nine-deep.

Haase has had this type of roster before and failed to deliver. But now, the core players have become upperclassmen and the new freshmen are contributing pivotal production.

There’s a reason why both the Utes and Wildcats lost in this building.

To do what neither of those programs could do, Wazzu has to block shots in the paint, close out on the Stanford shooters, and rebound the ball with intensity.

Dane Miller’s Game Picks

2023-24 Week 4 Pac-12 Games	Pick
Oregon State at Utah Jan 18, 6:00 PM	Utah
Washington at California Jan 18, 6:00 PM	California
Oregon at Colorado Jan 18, 7:30 PM	Colorado
Washington State at Stanford Jan 18, 8:00 PM	Stanford
Overall Record	117-46-0 (72%)