Boise State vs UCLA

Saturday, December 16
4:30 pm PT, ABC
Inglewood, CA

The LA Bowl has turned into a crapshoot.

Boise State’s starting quarterback has hit the transfer portal along with several key players on both sides of the ball for UCLA.

The lack of player availability is at least partially due to the NCAA opening the transfer portal window before the end of the bowl season.

But foresight, intuition, and reasonableness have never been mentioned in the same sentence as the NCAA, and games like this are the natural result.

Still, SoFi Stadium is an incredible venue and this matchup is meaningful for the players and supporters in attendance.

The Broncos won the Mountain West in dramatic fashion after firing their coach midseason and ending the year on a four-game winning streak.

The Bruins, on the other hand, are in shambles after multiple coaches have left the program and quarterback Dante Moore hit the portal. It wasn’t just Moore, either.

Key tight end Carsen Ryan and backup wide receivers Keegan Jones and Kam Brown also transferred out. Starting defensive back John Humphrey is gone, too, making UCLA a shell of the team it had during the year.

It’s also unclear if starting running back Carson Steele will play and star defensive lineman Laiatu Latu has opted out. Oh, and did I mention defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn jumped ship to rival USC?

In other words, it’s a disaster for UCLA.

Boise State figures to run most of its offense through star running back Ashton Jeanty. The sophomore has 1,266 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns on the season.

The Broncos have a second option, as well, with senior George Holani who has 606 yards rushing and five touchdowns in his injury-riddled year.

True freshman CJ Tiller is expected to start at quarterback for the Broncos in his first meaningful snaps of his career. The result could be a ground-and-pound offense with short throws mixed in.

The Boise State staff is unlikely to take many risks downfield and figures to call passing plays with short throws featuring just one or two reads.

That could allow the Bruins to play aggressively with a focus on stopping the run. If a true freshman is going to beat the secondary and linebackers over the top, so be it.

UCLA’s staff knows that containing the BSU run game substantially increases the chances of securing the win.

Look for the Bruins to stack the box and focus almost entirely on containing the one-two punch of Jeanty and Holani.

On the other side of the ball, Ethan Garbers might play his loosest game of the season. With no pressure from Moore for the starting role and Collin Schlee unlikely to seriously challenge him, Garbers can play with no fear.

If the junior can stay healthy throughout the contest and take care of the ball, the Bruins should be in decent shape.

The Broncos have the nation’s No. 29 rushing defense, which would be sixth in the Pac-12 and could present a challenge on the ground.

But Boise State’s passing defense is poor, coming into the game No. 111 nationally which would also be sixth in the Pac-12.

If the UCLA running backs can find a reasonable degree of success on the ground, the Bruin passing attack should open up dramatically.

Garbers has the arm and decision-making ability to get the ball to his playmakers if given time.

But if the UCLA running backs aren’t able to effectively run the ball, the Boise State lineman will likely get more pressure on Garbers during passing plays.

The result could be a sped-up decision-making process leading to incompletions, sacks, and turnovers.

Said another way, the key to the game is UCLA’s ability to move the ball on the ground. Chip Kelly has enough depth at running back to make it work even if Steele doesn’t play.

Yet, games like this sometimes come down to who wants it more.

Each team has personnel issues on both sides of the ball, making the LA Bowl a toss-up.

Cal vs Texas Tech

Saturday, December 16
6:15 pm PT, ESPN
Shreveport, LA

California’s offensive coordinator Jake Spavital bolted for Baylor at the end of the season, forcing Justin Wilcox to act rapidly to find a replacement.

Wilcox promoted from within, naming former run game coordinator and offensive line coach Mike Bloesch to the position.

The immediate result was a substantial win in the portal after the Bears managed to snag starting North Texas quarterback Chandler Rogers who threw for 3,382 yards and 29 touchdowns this season.

It’s unlikely that Bloesch will change much of the offense before the bowl game, though. And with experience as the run game coordinator, the transition to Bloesch’s play calling should be smooth.

In other words, the offense will continue to run through Jaydn Ott.

That’s a positive development for the Bears as they transition to the ACC. Losing a coordinator is never easy. And it’s exponentially more difficult when that coordinator was able to revamp the offense in a single season.

The long-term success of Bloesch remains to be seen, but there’s no denying the immediate positive effect he’s had.

And after analyzing this Texas Tech defense, Bloesch and Company must be rubbing their hands in anticipation.

The Red Raiders are No. 94 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game, which would put them 10th in the Pac-12. That’s just not going to get it done against the Cal running back room.

Ott is one of the top backs in the country and Isaiah Ifanse is a dangerous second option. Wilcox also has a handful of other rotational pieces he can use in the backfield for whenever the primary duo needs a rest.

The X-Factor is the efficiency of quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

The redshirt freshman is the reason the Bears became bowl eligible but he turns the ball over too often. His 13-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio is a problem and any mistakes could be costly.

The Red Raiders are No. 55 in the FBS in interceptions forced. The TTU staff are probably hounding their players to hawk the ball and take reasonable risks to force picks.

Yet, Texas Tech is No. 91 in sacks per game and could struggle to get the pressure needed to force Mendoza into mistakes.

The Bear offensive line does a good job of protecting the quarterback, too. Cal enters the game No. 35 in sacks allowed per game.

In other words, the Bear offensive line should provide enough time for Mendoza to make the right throw and open plenty of lanes for Ott to carve up the Texas Tech defense.

Unless Mendoza is giving the ball away, the Bear offense should roll.

The other side of the ball also favors California. Texas Tech does not have a strong passing offense (71st in the FBS which would be ninth in the Pac-12). Instead, the system runs through running back Tahj Brooks.

Similar to Ott, Brooks is the engine of TTU’s offense and enters the game with 1,443 yards rushing and nine touchdowns.

But the Bears have the nation’s No. 39 run defense. Justin Wilcox’s defense may have fallen short of expectations this year, yet the run defense has been a bright spot.

Said another way, Cal’s strength is defending the run and Texas Tech’s offense is primarily run-based. That’s an analytical matchup that favors the Bears.

Combined with the Red Raiders’ own poor run defense and inability to create sacks, the Bears should leave Shreveport with a victory.

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