USC at Arizona State

Saturday, January 20
11:00 am PT, Fox

The Sun Devils battle the Trojans on national television.

Arizona State enters the game with the No. 134 field goal percentage defense and the No. 129 in defensive rebounding unit.

That’s an effective combination, which makes Bobby Hurley’s team one of the top defenses in the Pac-12. KenPom ranks ASU as the fourth-best defense in the league behind only Utah, UCLA, and Arizona.

Matched up against a USC team that is not efficient from the field, the defensive effort will be key.

Andy Enfield’s roster has fared surprisingly well through the injuries to Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier. The backup guards have stepped up and Bronny James is getting better each game.

Still, the Trojans are turnover-prone.

USC is 284th nationally in turnovers per game which is tied for dead-last in the Pac-12.

The Sun Devils are No. 69 in turnovers forced per contest which is second-best in the league.

In other words, there’s a strength-on-weakness analytical matchup that highly favors Arizona State.

Look for Hurley’s group to play aggressive on defense to force mistakes that lead to transition scores and fast break buckets.

UCLA at No. 12 Arizona

Saturday, January 20
1:00 pm PT, ESPN2

Throw away all the preconceived notions of this year’s UCLA roster out of the window. This is not the same Bruin squad from earlier this season.

Mick Cronin has turned the group around and they enter McKale Center with reasonable chances at an upset.

With the top-ranked field goal percentage defense in the Pac-12 and the No. 39 field goal defense nationally, this is the strongest defensive group Arizona has faced this season.

Combined with the Wildcats’ recent struggles to make shots around the rim, the recipe is there for a close contest.

But Tommy Lloyd’s team wins games through decisive runs and the hostile home crowd figures to make a substantial difference.

The Bruins are sloppy with the ball, too, creating the necessary ingredients for the Wildcats to take advantage. The Cats are the top team in the Pac-12 at forcing turnovers and are No. 19 nationally in steals per game.

That is a dangerous combination for a young and inexperienced UCLA team.

This isn’t Matthew Knight Arena or Desert Financial Arena. McKale is going to be jam-packed and a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.

If Arizona can get its offense going early from three, the doors could be blown off by halftime.

Washington State at California

Saturday, January 20
2:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network

The Cougars are legitimate.

Entering the matchup in Berkeley at 13-5 with a NET ranking of 47 and 53rd in KenPom, Washington State has a growing chance of securing an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Myles Rice and Isaac Jones might be the top guard-forward duo in the Pac-12 while the rest of the roster is built with supporting role players.

Wazzu went into Stanford and won by 14, a feat that neither Utah nor Arizona was able to accomplish.

But Kyle Smith’s team can’t overlook California.

The Bears are probably the top six-win program in the country and are significantly better than what their record shows.

Mark Madsen has four players averaging in double figures and KenPom rates their offense in the Top 100.

Fardaws Aimaq, in particular, could have a strong game. A versatile big that can score from anywhere on the court, Aimaq is Cal’s second-leading scorer at 15.3 points per game.

Oscar Cluff will have to play an elite game on defense to keep him under his average. At the same time, Jaylon Tyson is one of the most efficient players in the league.

The Bear guard had a relatively off night against Washington and likely comes out with something to prove.

If the Cougs don’t come out ready to play from the opening tip, California could get the job done.

Oregon State at Colorado

Saturday, January 20
4:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network

Tad Boyle’s team is a different animal at home.

Cody Williams went off against Oregon on Wednesday, helping to extend Colorado’s home winning streak to start the season.

Matched up against a struggling Beavers team, this game could get ugly.

Jordan Pope was flustered by the Utah defense earlier in the week. Oregon State’s leading scorer posted his fewest points of the season and the third-lowest of his career.

But Colorado’s field goal percentage defense isn’t on the same level as the Utes and Pope might have a strong bounce back game.

Still, the Beavers are outmatched across the board.

The only noteworthy areas that Wayne Tinkle’s team is stronger in are blocked shots per game and turnovers committed per contest.

That’s just not going to get it done against one of the top offenses in the country. KenPom rates the CU offense 32nd and the Buffs enter the night 51st nationally in points per game.

And making matters worse, the Beavs don’t have an apparent answer to slow down Eddie Lampkin Jr. inside. Nor does OSU have enough elite wing defenders to contain the duo of Williams and Tristan da Silva.

The result could be a blowout game that’s never in question.

Washington at Stanford

Saturday, January 20
6:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network

The Huskies escaped Berkely with a win on Wednesday.

Sahvir Wheeler finally came back down to Earth, managing to score just 13 points after dropping 27 and 24 in the previous two games.

As the engine of the Washington offense, Wheeler’s turnovers are becoming a problem. He committed five against the Bears after coughing up six against UCLA and four against Arizona State.

Those mistakes must be limited against a Stanford offense that can put up points. The Tree are the No. 14 team in the country in three-point percentage and can change the game with hot shooting.

Jerod Haase’s group is third in the Pac-12 in three-point attempts per game.

With a variety of players that can knock down perimeter shots, every Washington defender on the floor must be prepared to contest those opportunities.

But the Dawgs are second in the league at defending the three and have the length to continue that strength.

For the Cardinal, one of the keys is to limit turnovers. The Tree coughed it up 17 times against Washington State and are ninth in the Pac-12 in TO’s per game.

If Washington keeps them relatively contained on the perimeter while generating mistakes, the Dawgs could secure the pivotal road sweep.

Oregon at Utah

Sunday, January 21
Noon PT, ESPN

The Ducks battle the Utes at the Huntsman Center for one of the Pac-12’s most underrated marquee matchups of the season.

Since 2011, the Utes are 1-21 against the Ducks with the lone win coming in 2017.

To buck the trend, Craig Smith’s team must focus on rebounding the ball. The Ducks are a poor rebounding group, entering the game 10th in the Conference in rebounds per game.

Utah has a stronger field goal percentage defense, too, which could go hand-in-hand with exploiting Oregon’s struggles on the glass.

From a personnel standpoint, slowing down freshman guard Jackson Shelstad is arguably the key. Colorado’s KJ Simpson dominated the matchup on Thursday, holding Shelstad to the second-fewest points of his career.

But Utah doesn’t have a guard on the same level as Simpson. Gabe Madsen or Deivon Smith figure to draw the defensive assignment, but both could struggle to defend Shelstad.

On the other hand, the Ducks don’t have an adequate player to contain Branden Carlson.

N’Faly Dante isn’t built to defend Carlson on the perimeter and the UO true forwards might have problems, too.

Kwame Evans Jr. seems to be the natural fit, but he doesn’t score on offense and has seen his minutes cut back the last few games.

The result could be a high-scoring affair with each team scoring in different ways. The X-Factors are the role players.

If Jermaine Couisnard on Oregon or some combination of Keba Keita/Cole Bajema on Utah go off, their respective teams should like their chances.

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Dane Miller’s Game Picks

2023-24 Week 4 Pac-12 Games	Pick
USC at Arizona State Jan 20, 11:00 AM	Arizona State
UCLA at No. 12 Arizona Jan 20, 1:00 PM	Arizona
Washington State at California Jan 20, 2:00 PM	Washington State
Oregon State at Colorado Jan 20, 4:00 PM	Colorado
Washington at Stanford Jan 20, 6:00 PM	Stanford
Oregon at Utah Jan 21, Noon	Oregon
Overall Record	120-49-0 (71%)