No. 21 Arizona at Colorado

Saturday, November 11
11:00 AM PT, Pac-12 Network

Many are expecting Arizona to roll over Colorado, yet the game has the chance to be much closer than projected.

Despite Noah Fifita’s command of the Wildcat offense, UA has historically struggled on the road. The Cats did dominate Washington State in Pullman. But Colorado has a substantially better offense than the Cougars.

The matchup is a Litmus Test for Arizona defensive coordinator Johnny Nansen.

The Wildcats have used a variety of different formations and personnel over the last few weeks, each specifically designed and catered to counter the strengths of the opposing offenses.

Entering the game with the nation’s No. 27 scoring defense, the keys will be containing the Buffs’ wide receivers and running backs in open space.

Nansen used the innovative 3-1-7 formation against the pass-happy offenses of Washington and USC and might employ the same look against Shedeur Sanders.

Whatever formation Nansen utilizes as the primary base, he is sure to change up the looks and bring pressure all game.

Colorado is second-to-last in the FBS in sacks allowed per game and Arizona’s strength is its defensive line.

As long as Fifita takes care of the ball, Arizona’s running backs should bust substantial runs to open up the passing game for chunk plays over the top.

With four running backs to soften the CU front seven, look for the Wildcats to take advantage of the nation’s No. 97 rush defense while feeding Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan with throws to the middle of the field.

No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington

Saturday, November 11
12:30 pm PT, Fox

The Utes had their top offensive performance of the season last weekend against a respectable Arizona State defense.

Bryson Barnes enters Husky Stadium full of confidence after throwing four touchdowns against the Sun Devils while rushing for 56 yards.

It’s Barnes’ mobility that should have Washington’s defense concerned.

The junior quarterback is averaging 26.3 yards rushing per game and has three scores on the ground. Able to move the chains with his legs, Barnes adds a dynamic to the Utah offense that must be accounted for.

Washington’s run defense is concerning, too.

The Huskies enter the game No. 122 in tackles for loss per contest and No. 60 in rushing yards allowed per night.

The entire Ute offense is predicated on its run game and the inability to generate negative plays against it could result in Utah converting too many third downs.

If that happens, Kyle Whittingham’s team could go on extended drives and limit the number of possessions Michael Penix Jr. gets.

But, if UW contains Barnes in the pocket and reasonably limits the Utah running backs, the Dawgs should be in a strong position.

On the other side of the ball, the Utes have a complete defense. With a strong defensive line, productive linebackers, and an elite secondary, Utah is the real deal.

Morgan Scalley’s group is the nation’s No. 9 scoring defense and the country’s No. 1 third down conversion percentage defense.

In other words, the Utes get stops and don’t often let opponents in the end zone. That makes Washington’s ability to slow down the UU run game even more of a deciding factor.

As long as the Husky defense can keep Utah out of third and short plays, Washington should get enough defensive stops to give Penix and the offense enough chances to score.

Washington State at California

Saturday, November 11
1:00 pm PT, ESPN2

California has to win out to keep its hopes alive while Washington State would have to win the Apple Cup if the Cougs fall in Berkeley.

In other words, the showdown on ESPN is a de facto bowl elimination game.

And in the bigger picture, Jake Dickert is fighting to keep his team together before the transfer portal opens up while Justin Wilcox’s job arguably depends on securing the win.

All of the competing factors and circumstances make the contest one of the more intriguing games of the weekend.

Wazzu’s offense has been inept since the bye week in late September. In the five games since then, the Cougs are averaging just 16.2 points per game.

Cal’s defense, though, has struggled all year. In Pac-12 play, the Bears are allowing 46.5 points per game.

Neither program has any momentum and each of their seasons are on the brink of failure. That creates a measure of desperation that should make the matchup tightly contested.

Turnovers, then, could become the deciding factor. Whoever wins the turnover battle could come out on top, and a key special teams play might decide the game.

But as long as the Bears can establish their run game and Fernando Mendoza takes care of the ball, the Cal defense might do just enough to secure the win.

Stanford at No. 12 Oregon State

Saturday, November 11
2:30 pm PT, Pac-12 Network

Despite their 3-6 record, Stanford is a threat on the road.

All three of the Cardinal’s victories have come away from home and Troy Taylor’s team is fresh off an upset in Pullman.

The Tree’s quarterback situation has been resolved with Taylor converting his offense to a pass-heavy version of his system.

Former backup quarterback Justin Lamson has essentially been converted to running back and leads the team in yards rushing.

It’s not the Conference’s top offense by any means, but Stanford believes in itself and it has the personnel to make the game closer than many expect.

The Cardinal have a respectable defensive line, too. The Tree enter the matchup with the nation’s No. 41 rushing defense and could keep the Beaver running backs relatively in check.

Still, Oregon State should handle its business.

Facing a respectable run defense, DJ Uiagalelei and the OSU wide receivers should step up to the plate. The Cardinal secondary is one of the worst in the nation and Smith’s offense is primed to take advantage.

Look for the Beavs to burn Stanford over the top with deep throws and Uiagalelei to soften up the front seven with effective quarterback scampers.

The end result should be an Oregon State offense that wins the time of possession battle and scores every time they enter the red zone.

Arizona State at UCLA

Saturday, November 11
6:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network

For the second week in a row, they face one of the top defenses in the Pac-12 on the road.

Kenny Dillingham’s team failed to eclipse 100 yards of offense in Salt Lake City and may once again fall short of breaching the mark.

UCLA has an elite defensive line and strong linebackers. D’Anton Lynn might almost feel bad for the game plan he has in store for ASU.

The Sun Devils have been decimated by injuries along the offensive line and are down to their third-string quarterback.

With arguably the top defensive line in the Pac-12 at his disposal, Lynn might not even have to call blitzes to get pressure on the quarterback.

And if he does decide to blitz, Arizona State’s quarterback will likely get knocked down every play.

The result could be Dillingham going completely one-dimensional in the run game.

Realistically, the Sun Devils could be held to less than five first downs and get shutout.

The other side of the ball, though, is a different story.

Brian Ward’s defense should be motivated to come out strong after collapsing against Utah. Ward’s defense has been the lone bright spot in ASU’s season and the coordinator figures to come out swinging.

UCLA’s quarterback situation is cloudy, too, with Dante Moore and Ethan Garbers likely unavailable. That leaves Collin Schlee to run the show.

Look for the Sun Devils to play aggressive defense with a high emphasis on blitzing and creating turnovers. The only way for Arizona State to secure the upset is to create TOs and win the field position battle.

To do so, Ward has to be aggressive from the opening snap.

USC at No. 6 Oregon

Saturday, November 11
7:30 pm PT, Fox

With the primetime slot on the West Coast, many viewers around the country will be tuned in to see what the Ducks can do against USC’s poor defense.

Lincoln Riley finally fired Alex Grinch which makes the matchup in Eugene slightly more of a Wildcard. Teams that move on from coaches or coordinators in midseason tend to go one of two ways in the immediately following game.

The Trojan defense is either going to have its best game of the year or completely collapse on national television.

But, as Dan Lanning always drills into his team, it’s Oregon versus Oregon.

With an elite defense and elite offense, the only factor stopping the Ducks from being successful is themselves. Turnovers could be game-changing. And allowing USC to create explosive plays could be too much to overcome.

Facing a Trojan defense that is 118th in rushing yards allowed per game, 106th in passing yards allowed per game, and 121st in scoring defense, the Ducks could win in a shootout.

Yet, the Committee doesn’t want to see a shootout. The Committee wants to see a dominant Oregon defense and an offense that turns the game into a convincing win.

If the Colorado game earlier in the year is any indication, Lanning will have his defensive players fired up to get the job done. There’s been plenty of talk around the country about which team is the best in the Pac-12.

The primary difference between the Ducks and Washington is UO’s defense.

Entering the game 11th nationally in points allowed per game, Oregon can seal the deal in the minds of many with an elite defensive performance.

To do so, UO must make their tackles in open space and wrap up Caleb Williams in the backfield. The SC offense is so potent because of how slippery Williams is and the plays his wide receivers can make after the catch.

But if Oregon plays its most physical game of the year with effort levels that are unmatched, its defense should help convince the Committee that they are the most complete team in the Conference of Champions.

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