No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 2 Washington

Monday, January 8
4:30 pm PT, ESPN

After becoming the first team to go undefeated in the Pac-12 since expansion in 2011, Washington is one win away from a National Championship.

But standing in their way is the top defense in all of college football.

Michigan’s numbers speak for themselves. The Wolverines have the country’s No. 1 scoring defense, No. 1 total defense, No. 2 red zone defense, No. 2 passing defense, and No. 8 rushing defense.

The Big Ten champions are ninth nationally in interceptions forced and twelfth in third-down defense.

The most points they have allowed all season is 24.

Yet, there are two key flaws. The Wolverines are No. 53 in tackles for loss per game and No. 54 in passing yards allowed per completion.

In other words, they are somewhat average at creating stops behind the line of scrimmage and tend to give up yards when passes are completed.

Both of those shortcomings play directly into the hands of Kalen DeBoer’s offense.

The Dawgs enter the game with the No. 1 passing offense in the nation and the country’s No. 5 offense in tackles for loss allowed per game.

The toughest passing attack Michigan faced this season was Maryland, a team that would be seventh in the Pac-12 in passing yards per game.

The Terrapins scored a season-high 24 points against UM and somewhat exposed the Wolverine defense, at least from a purely analytical perspective.

Michigan’s opponents are averaging just 26 passing attempts per game. The Huskies average 37.4.

The most passing attempts Michigan has faced this season is 32. Washington has attempted more than 32 in 11 games this season.

In other words, Michigan struggles with prolific passing offenses, and this Husky team is exponentially better than any it has faced this season.

And from a scheme point of view, DeBoer’s offense is far and away the most advanced the Wolverines have faced all year.

Predicated on pre-snap movement and filled with eye candy, the overarching philosophy is to get the ball into open space. If the defense fails to account for the motion, the ball goes to the unaccounted area.

And if the defense shifts to cover the motion, the route trees are designed to get the ball to a player in the area the defense just shifted out of.

There’s a reason Washington is undefeated with the country’s top passing offense. And there’s a reason why Alabama tried to throw money at offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to lure him away.

The scheme is everything.

Combined with the country’s top receiving corps and a veteran quarterback who knows the system inside and out, the Dawgs are an unstoppable force.

Teams don’t run the table in the Conference of Champions. And certainly not in a year when the league is the strongest it has ever been at any point in history.

But DeBoer’s offense is that elite and Washington’s players are that good.

So why does the national narrative remain the same?

Now, all the talk is about how Washington won’t be able to stop Michigan’s rushing offense. The same Wolverine running offense that is No. 61 nationally, which would put them sixth in the Pac-12.

Yes, you read that right. The narrative is that the UW defense won’t be able to handle the equivalent of the Pac-12’s sixth-best running offense.

Are we missing something?

Michigan’s offense would hardly be considered average in the deepest league in college football this season. The Wolverines passing offense would be tenth in the Pac-12 and its total offense would be ninth.

They would be fourth in scoring offense, but a large portion of that scoring number has to be attributable to the defensive strength.

Said in other terms, this Michigan offense would be middle of the road in the Pac-12. At best.

The Husky front seven is the strength of the defense and should be able to keep the UM run game reasonably in check.

The Dawgs are No. 41 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game and are much stronger at defending the run than the pass.

The outcome, then, figures to be decided on the other side of the ball. Yes, Michigan has an ultra-elite defense that is the best in college football.

That doesn’t cover up the flaws it has at defending prolific passing offenses. And they haven’t faced anything close to the passing offense the Huskies trot out on the field.

The UW offensive line is the top line in the country and would lead the Big Ten in sacks allowed per game. The Husky scoring offense would also top the Big Ten.

Still, the narrative is: Can Washington stop the run?

Please, we know the anti-West Coast Bias is real. But this is getting ridiculous.

All the talking heads across every television media outlet should be discussing whether or not Michigan can stop Washington’s passing offense.

The Huskies have the top offensive line in the nation, the top wide receivers corps in the country, and a quarterback that should have won the Heisman.

Does Michigan have the defensive game-planning ability to scheme up a way to slow down the offense? Teams in the Pac-12 experimented with an odd 3-1-7 formation to counteract it. Rival Washington State stole the signs.

Because if you sit back and play your normal defense, the Huskies will carve you up. The offensive system is that advanced.

Look for Washington to use throws on the edges behind the line of scrimmage to try and loosen up the Michigan front seven.

There will probably be some attempts to get the traditional run game going, too, before the bread and butter plays are settled into.

But eventually, the heavy pre-snap motion action will be called to create medium or deep throws across the field and down the sidelines.

And once those plays start working, a running variation will likely be inserted, either with a traditional running back or speedy wide receivers in jet sweeps.

Then, fakes will be called using the same pre-snap movement, which snowballs into even more open space and yards after the catch.

No opponent has been able to stop it.

But here’s the X-Factor that will be the difference-maker: Look for Michael Penix Jr. to use his legs more than he has all season to create a final devastating dimension to an offense that already can’t be stopped.

2024 is the Year of the Dawgs.

Game Picks from Our Senior Writers and Broadcasters