Houston at TCU

Friday, October 4
4:30 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: TCU -16.5

What’s at Stake: Houston remains winless in Big 12 play and is 0-2 in road games this season.

TCU is coming off a solid win at Kansas and needs to keep up the momentum.

A convincing Horned Frog victory is expected.

Why Houston Wins: The defense forces turnovers and quarterback Donovan Smith throws multiple touchdown passes.

Why TCU Wins: Quarterback Josh Hoover operates the offense with his normal efficiency and the entire team limits their penalties.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: TCU
Straight Up: TCU

West Virginia at Oklahoma State

Saturday, October 5
1:00 pm PT, ESPN2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oklahoma State -3

What’s at Stake: Oklahoma State’s season is teetering on the edge.

The Pokes have lost two straight games and the offense has looked ugly. And without an elite defense to make up for it, the remainder of the year looks bleak.

A defeat to West Virginia at Boone Pickens Stadium would be the nail in the coffin.

Why West Virginia Wins: The Mountaineers’ run game is established early and its front seven contains Ollie Gordon while getting pressure on Alan Bowman.

Why Oklahoma State Wins: The offensive line provides enough time for the receivers to get into open space, Bowman executes the throws, and the wideouts rack up yards after catch.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Oklahoma State
Straight Up: Oklahoma State

Baylor at No. 16 Iowa State

Saturday, October 5
4:30 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa State -11.5

What’s at Stake: Iowa State looks to extend its unbeaten streak after starting the year 4-0.

The Clones shut out Houston last week and are statistically one of the top defenses in College Football.

But Baylor is a different team with Sawyer Robertson leading the way and might make it a game.

Why Baylor Wins: Robertson consistently moves the ball on the ground using RPO plays and the defense wins the turnover margin.

Why Iowa State Wins: The Iowa State defense wins the line of scrimmage and prevents Baylor from busting chunk run plays.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Baylor
Straight Up: Iowa State

UCF at Florida

Saturday, October 5
4:45 pm PT, SEC Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UCF -2.5

What’s at Stake: It’s a pivotal moment for UCF’s program.

The transition to the Big 12 has been beneficial and the matchup with in-state rival Florida is an opportunity. But the Knights were embarrassed by Colorado last week and head to SEC Country on the road.

Another defeat would be a reality check.

Why UCF Wins: Quarterback KJ Jefferson has an efficient day through the air, runs for positive yards, and keeps the Florida defense on its backfoot with a consistent threat to run.

Why Florida Wins: The Gators’ secondary forces interceptions and their offensive line handles UCF’s defensive line.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Florida
Straight Up: Florida

Best Bet

Kansas at Arizona State

Saturday, October 5
5:00 pm PT, ESPN2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Arizona State -2.5

What’s at Stake: The Sun Devils return from their bye week looking to make a statement.

The home-field advantages in the Big 12 are key and it’s time to send a message about what it’s like to play in the desert.

The contest is Arizona State’s first home conference game as a member of the league.

Why Kansas Wins: The Jayhawk defense contains running back Cam Skattebo, quarterback Jalon Daniels doesn’t throw interceptions, and running back Devin Neal is established early.

Why Arizona State Wins: The defensive play-calling is aggressive, the Sun Devil secondary makes plays, and Sam Leavitt doesn’t force throws into bad spots.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Arizona State
Straight Up: Arizona State

Texas Tech at Arizona

Saturday, October 5
8:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Arizona -6

What’s at Stake: It’s unclear if Arizona’s win over Utah was a fluke or a result of fundamental changes.

Brent Brennan changed his offensive play-caller heading into the Utah game and the results were positive.

A convincing victory over Texas Tech would send a message to the Big 12.

Why Texas Tech Wins: The Red Raider offensive line wins their one-on-one matchups and Tahj Brooks is established on the ground.

Why Arizona Wins: The offense gets production from tight end Keyan Burnett, the slow-developing run plays are used sparingly but effectively, and the secondary makes plays when defending the pass.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Arizona
Straight Up: Arizona

Dane Miller’s Big 12 Game Picks

2024 Week 6 Big 12 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Houston at TCU Oct 4, 4:30 pm PT	TCU
West Virginia at Oklahoma State Oct 5, 1:00 pm PT	Oklahoma State
Baylor at No. 16 Iowa State Oct 5, 4:30 pm PT	Iowa State
UCF at Florida Oct 5, 4:45 pm PT	Florida
Kansas at Arizona State Oct 5, 5:00 pm PT	ASU
Texas Tech at Arizona Oct 5, 8:00 pm PT	Arizona
Miller’s Overall Big 12 Record	33-12 (73%)