No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State

Saturday, Sept. 28
9:00 am PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Kansas State -4.5

What’s at Stake: The season is on the line for both programs.

A two-loss team probably won’t be in a position to make the Big 12 Championship Game and secure the automatic bid to the Playoff.

The loser of this game will effectively be eliminated from Playoff contention.

Why Oklahoma State Wins: The offensive play calling finds its rhythm and Alan Bowman hits his downfield throws. Ollie Gordon finds a way to get going.

Why Kansas State Wins: Avery Johnson deals with any pressure Oklahoma State brings and scrambles for yards. The offense does not turn the ball over.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Kansas State
Straight Up: Kansas State

No. 22 BYU at Baylor

Saturday, Sept. 28
9:00 am PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Baylor -3.5

What’s at Stake: Conference road victories are tough to come by.

BYU has already proven itself on the road this year, though, with victories at SMU and Wyoming.

Matched up with Baylor, it’s the Cougars’ toughest challenge yet.

Why BYU Wins: The defense contains quarterback Sawyer Robertson on the ground and the BYU running backs consistently find space to gain yards.

Why Baylor Wins: The Bears get pressure on quarterback Jake Retzlaff to force quicker decisions and Robertson’s threat to run slows down the decision-making of BYU’s defense.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: BYU
Straight Up: BYU

TCU at Kansas

Saturday, Sept. 28
12:30 pm PT, ESPN+

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Kansas -2.5

What’s at Stake: Both programs are struggling this season.

Kansas has dramatically underperformed expectations and TCU was just embarrassed by rival SMU.

There’s a reason why this game is being broadcast on ESPN+.

Why TCU Wins: Josh Hoover runs the offense with his normal efficiency and the TCU running backs exceed their average yards per rush.

Why Kansas Wins: The Jayhawks win the time of possession by using their run game and Jalon Daniels limits his interceptions.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: TCU
Straight Up: TCU

No. 18 Iowa State at Houston

Saturday, Sept. 28
4:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa State -14.5

What’s at Stake: Entering the game undefeated, Iowa State has a road challenge to deal with.

Houston may be 1-3, but the Cougars played Oklahoma close and will fight to defend their home field.

It’s never easy to win on the road no matter the circumstances.

Why Iowa State Wins: The Clones’ front seven wins the line of scrimmage and prevents Houston from busting chunk plays.

Why Houston Wins: The Cougars’ passing game completes shots downfield to loosen up the Iowa State defense for the running backs to take advantage.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Houston
Straight Up: Iowa State

Cincinnati at Texas Tech

Saturday, Sept. 28
5:00 pm PT, ESPN2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Texas Tech -2.5

What’s at Stake: This game in Lubbock, Texas, is the most under-the-radar matchup of the week.

Cincinnati is rolling so far, coming into the game 3-1 with a quarterback operating efficiently.

Texas Tech is undefeated at home and the game might be described as a “must-win.”

Why Cincinnati Wins: Quarterback Brendan Sorsby doesn’t throw any interceptions and Corey Kiner meets his 6.3 yards per rush average.

Why Texas Tech Wins: The Red Raiders win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage and establishing the run.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Texas Tech
Straight Up: Texas Tech

Best Bets

Colorado at UCF

Saturday, Sept. 28
12:30 pm PT, Fox

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UCF -14

What’s at Stake: Colorado takes on UCF in Orlando as substantial underdogs.

The Knights have adjusted well to the Big 12 in a recruiting sense, and this matchup with CU is their opportunity to make a statement.

But starting the game at 3:30 pm local might benefit the Buffs more than expected.

Why Colorado Wins: The offensive line provides the time needed for Shedeur Sanders and the running backs to move the ball on the ground.

Why UCF Wins: The UCF front seven wins the line of scrimmage to frustrate Sanders with pressure all game.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Colorado
Straight Up: UCF

Arizona at No. 10 Utah

Saturday, Sept. 28
7:15 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Utah -11.5

What’s at Stake: Utah looks to remain undefeated and atop the Big 12 Standings.

Arizona had a bye week to prepare for the matchup and could be more aggressive with its play-calling.

Kicking off at night, the home crowd will affect the game.

Why Arizona Wins: The slow-developing run plays are used sparingly but effectively and the offense gets production outside of Tetairoa McMillan.

Why Utah Wins: The Ute’s offensive line and front seven win their battles, resulting in consistent gains on the ground and pressure on Noah Fifita.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Utah
Straight Up: Utah

Dane Miller’s Big 12 Game Picks

2024 Week 5 Big 12 Games	Straight-Up Picks
No. 20 Okla State at No. 23 Kansas State Sept 28, 9:00 am PT	Kansas State
No. 22 BYU at Baylor Sept 28, 9:00 am PT	BYU
Colorado at UCF Sept 28, 12:30 pm PT	UCF
TCU at Kansas Sept 28, 12:30 pm PT	TCU
No. 18 Iowa State at Houston Sept 28, 4:00 pm PT	Iowa State
Cincinnati at Texas Tech Sept 28, 5:00 pm PT	Texas Tech
Arizona at No. 10 Utah Sept 28, 7:15 pm PT	Utah
Miller’s Overall Big 12 Record	28-10 (74%)

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