Posted on October 23, 2024
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Last week in the Mountain West we saw the road teams go 3-1 in conference play.
The two conferences split their crossover games with UNLV winning at Oregon State and Washington State taking care of Hawaii in Pullman.
This week we see just one crossover with WSU heading to San Diego State.
In Week 8, I went 6-0 in my MW and Pac-12 picks, bringing my record to 56-9 on the season, good for an 86% success rate.
The big one on the docket this week comes Friday night in Vegas as the Rebels host Boise State in a game with conference and Playoff implications.
Here is how I think the seven games on the schedule will play out this week.
No. 17 Boise State at UNLV
Friday, October 25
7:30 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boise State -3
Over/Under Point Total: 66.5
The winner will have the inside track in the conference race and perhaps for the Group of Five Playoff bid, though a few teams in the American Conference might have something to say about that.
UNLV gets the home field, but Boise State is coming off a bye.
Boise State wins if…Ashton Jeanty can continue his assault on the record books. UNLV is 20th in the nation against the run this season. The Rebels are 25th against explosive runs.
Jeanty will need to work for all of his yards. If he can produce in this one the Broncos will get the win and he may get his Heisman moment.
UNLV wins if…they can keep forcing turnovers. The Rebels are third in the nation with a TO margin of +1.71 per game and have forced 16 turnovers this year. The Broncos protect the football and have only coughed it up four times all season.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: UNLV
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State
Oregon State at California
Saturday, October 26
1:00 pm PT ESPN2
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Cal -9.5
Over/Under Point Total: 48.5
The Bears are two-score favorites in this one. A game decided by that much would be an anomaly for Cal as five of their seven games this season have been decided by seven points or less.
Each of the Beavers’ last three games has been one-possession affairs.
Oregon State wins if…they can run the ball. The Beavers are seventh in the nation running the ball while the Bears are the 21st-best team at stopping the run. Whichever squad controls the line when the Beavs have the ball will have the edge.
Cal wins if…they can get some stops in the backfield and create long-yardage situations for OSU. Cal is averaging 6.0 TFL per game, while OSU is allowing just 4.4 stops behind the line per game.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Cal
New Mexico at Colorado State
Saturday, October 26
2:00 pm PT, Mountain West Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado State -6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 65.5
The last time New Mexico picked up a win in the series was in 2009.
Each of UNM’s last three wins in the series have come on last-second field goals.
New Mexico wins if…the offense continues to score. The Lobo offense is legit and can erase a deficit in a hurry as we saw last week when they erased a 16-point deficit and hung 50 on Utah State
Colorado State wins if…Avery Morrow continues to run the ball. The back has four straight 100-yard rushing games averaging 130.5 in those outings. UNM is 132nd in the nation at stopping the run.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Colorado State
Utah State at Wyoming
Saturday, October 26
4:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Utah State -2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 57.5
Amid a six-game skid, the Aggies have allowed 54 points per game in conference play.
Utah State wins if…they can come up with a little defense. The Aggies have had 500+ yards in each of their last three. The Cowboys’ offense won’t be able to outscore USU in a shootout. But Utah State has to find some defense.
Wyoming wins if…they can control the line. The Cowboys will need to control the tempo, and that starts with dominating up front on both sides of the ball. Look for Wyoming to out-physical the Aggies.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Wyoming
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Wyoming
San Jose State at Fresno State
Saturday, October 26
5:00 pm PT, truTV
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Fresno State -5.5
Over/Under Point Total: 54.5
The last 10 meetings have been split with five wins apiece.
San Jose State wins if…they can get the Bulldogs off the field. The Spartan defense ranks 80th in the nation. The air attack should sing on offense but SJSU’s defense will need to make some plays to win this one.
Fresno State wins if…they can continue to come up with interceptions. The Spartan air attack is their strength. The Bulldogs have been pretty good against the pass and their eight interceptions this season are the 26th most in the country.
The Spartans seven INTs thrown this season rank 91st in the nation.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Fresno State
Best Bets
Washington State at San Diego State
Saturday, October 26
7:30 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington State -14.5
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5
WSU has been lights out on offense but the defense has been bad.
San Diego State has had trouble moving the ball and I like them to get enough to push the point total over, making the over 55.5 my best bet.
Washington State wins if…they can contain Trey White and the Aztecs’ pass rush. White is tied for the lead nationally with 11 sacks this season. WSU ranks 112th in the nation allowing 2.86 sacks per game. The Cougars line will need to be ready.
San Diego State wins if…the Aztecs can move the football. SDSU’so ffensive scheme can cause problems, but the results have not been there this season, as they rank 113th nationally in total offense.
The Cougars have not been able to stop anyone, as reflected in their 118th ranking in total defense. If the Aztecs can’t move the ball, it will be a long day.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Washington State
Nevada at Hawai’i
Saturday, October 26
8:59 pm PT, Spectrum
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Nevada -2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5
Hawai’i has had trouble scoring but the defense has been pretty good all year.
Nevada’s offense has not been lighting it up either, averaging just 26.5 per outing.
I like the Under and Nevada at –2.5 as one of my best bets.
Nevada wins if…they can score. As noted, the Warriors’ defense is pretty good. When the Wolf Pack have scored they have been successful this season, averaging 39.7 points per game in their wins, and just 18.6 in their losses.
Sometimes it really is as simple as just scoring.
Hawai’i wins if…they can convert on third downs. The Warriors are converting just 34.9% of their third downs this season. They need to not only move the football better but also keep their own defense off the field.
Three-and-outs will kill them if they allow too many
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Nevada
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Nevada
Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks
2024 Week 9 MW + Pac-2 Games |
Straight-Up Picks |
No. 17 Boise State at UNLV Oct 25, 7:30 pm PT |
Boise State |
Oregon State at Cal Oct 26, 1:00 pm PT |
Cal |
New Mexico at Colorado State Oct 26, 2:00 pm PT |
Colorado State |
Utah State at Wyoming Oct 26, 4:00 pm PT |
Wyoming |
San Jose State at Fresno State Oct 26, 5:00 pm PT |
Fresno State |
WSU at San Diego State Oct 26, 7:30 pm PT |
WSU |
Nevada at Hawai’i Oct 26, 8:59 pm PT |
Nevada |
Vilardo’s Overall MW + Pac-12 Record | 56-9 (86%) |
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