Posted on October 9, 2024
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Last week the Mountain West fielded three conference games.
UNLV stepped out of conference play to host Syracuse and fell for the first time this season.
Air Force hosted rival Navy and fell to the Midshipmen while Colorado State and Oregon State tangled in Corvallis with the Beavers coming away with the win.
This week features five MW games that count towards the standings.
In the Pac-12/MW scheduling agreement, Washington State travels to Fresno State while Oregon State visits Nevada.
In Week 6, I went 5-1 in my MW and Pac-12 picks, bringing my record to 46-6 on the season, good for an 88% success rate.
Here is how I see the seven games on the docket playing out.
UNLV at Utah State
Friday, October 11
6:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UNLV –18.5
Over/Under Point Total: 64.5
UNLV will look to rebound after the OT loss last week while Utah State looks to erase a four-game losing streak in which they have allowed 48.3 points per game.
UNLV wins if…they keep scoring points. The Rebels are ninth in the nation in scoring, averaging 44.4 points per game. USU is 131st in the nation, allowing 41.4 per outing. UNLV should be able to score at will in this one.
Utah State wins if…they can force some turnovers. The Aggies are 109th in the nation in turnover margin this season and have only created four takeaways. If they are to have any chance in this one, they’ll need to create some extra chances.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: UNLV
Points total: Over
Outright winner: UNLV
San Diego State at Wyoming
Saturday, October 12
12:30 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: San Diego State –1
Over/Under Point Total: 42.5
Both teams did pick up conference wins last week and are looking to build momentum.
Points might be at a premium as both offenses have had their issues.
San Diego State wins if…they can get the passing game going. The Aztecs have struggled mightily this season when the air attack has sputtered. If SDSU can produce through the air they could leave Wyoming with a win.
Wyoming wins if…they can get the ground game working. The Cowboys were effective on the ground against Air Force running the ball for 173 yards at a clip of 4.2 per carry. UW had been averaging just 2.3 yards per carry in their first four games.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Diego State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: San Diego State
Air Force at New Mexico
Saturday, October 12
4:00 pm PT, truTV
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: New Mexico –6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 54.5
Air Force has not looked good this season, but the defense has held their own while the offense has been struggling.
Air Force wins if…they can get their running game working. The Falcons have not run the ball like they are used to. UNM is the second worst team in the nation against the run. If Air Force can’t run the ball in this one they won’t be able to in any game.
New Mexico wins if…they keep moving the ball on offense. The Lobos offense has been very good this season. If this one turns into a tack meet Air Force will not be able to keep up.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points total: Over
Outright winner: New Mexico
Washington State at Fresno State
Saturday, October 12
4:00 pm PT, FS1
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington State –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 61.5
The Cougars did pick up a win over Washington at a neutral site, so they have won outside of Pullman this season.
Both teams are coming off tough losses prior to a bye last week.
Washington State wins if…the Cougs can keep the Fresno State passing game in check. WSU has been terrible against the pass this season, ranking 128th in the nation. It could be a long day for WSU if Mikey Keene gets hot.
Fresno State wins if…they can limit Washington State’s ground attack. The passing game will get yardage for the Cougs, but the key is keeping them from running the ball.
WSU is averaging 224.5 yards per game on the ground in wins and were limited to 89 in their loss to Boise State.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Fresno State
Oregon State at Nevada
Saturday, October 12
4:30 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon State –4.5
Over/Under Point Total: 48.5
The Beavers will be a stiff challenge however and while much improved, the Wolf Pack are still a ways away from where they’d like to be.
This one could be tight late, but the 4.5 cushion for the Beavers is hard to turn down.
Oregon State wins if…they run the football! The Wolf Pack have been pretty good against the run, but OSU is sixth in the nation with 264.4 rushing yards per game. The Beavs offensive line could take this game over.
Nevada wins if…they can find some offensive balance. Nevada has run the ball well this season, getting 192.8 per outing but the passing game has struggled. If the Pack can’t find balance in this one, they’ll have a hard time getting anything going on offense.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon State
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San Jose State at Colorado State
Saturday, October 12
3:30 pm PT, truTV
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: San Jose State –1.5
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5
The Spartans have looked good at 4-1 this season while the Rams have had their struggles at 2-3.
CSU is coming off one of their best outings of the year despite falling to Oregon State in OT.
San Jose State wins if…they can get an effective running game going. The Rams are going to key on stopping the passing game. SJSU has thrown the ball well but struggled to move the ball on the ground.
At a minimum, San Jose State will need to do enough on the ground to keep the Rams honest.
Colorado State wins if…they can control the Spartans’ passing attack. CSU is 112th in the nation against the pass, SJSU is 8th nationally throwing the football. If the Rams are to have a shot, they’ll need to at least slow down the Spartans passing offense.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: San Jose State
No. 17 Boise State at Hawai’i
Saturday, October 12
8:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boise State –21.5
Over/Under Point Total: 61.5
His 1,031 yards on the ground after five games put him ahead of Barry Sanders’ mark through five games when he set the single-season rushing record.
Now he gets a Hawai’i defense that allowed Sam Houston State to churn out 257 yards on the ground.
Boise State wins if…they get the passing game going early. If BSU can get some production through the air early, it will open up the run game for Jeanty.
Hawai’i wins if…the defense is actually as good as they have been this season. The Warriors defense has been solid this season, ranking 28th in the nation. But this will be the best offense they have faced this season—by miles!
We’ll see if the UH defense is that good or if they have looked good thanks to the competition.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Boise State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State
Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks
2024 Week 7 MW + Pac-2 Games |
Straight-Up Picks |
UNLV at Utah State Oct 11, 6:00 pm PT |
UNLV |
San Diego State at Wyoming Oct 12, 12:30 pm PT |
San Diego State |
San Jose State at Colorado State Oct 12, 3:30 pm PT |
San Jose State |
Air Force at New Mexico Oct 12, 4:00 pm PT |
New Mexico |
Washington State at Fresno State Oct 12, 4:00 pm PT |
Fresno State |
Oregon State at Nevada Oct 12, 4:30 pm PT |
Oregon State |
No. 17 Boise State at Hawai’i Oct 12, 8:00 pm PT |
Boise State |
Vilardo’s Overall MW + Pac-12 Record | 46-6 (88%) |
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