Posted on October 10, 2024
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There’s a full slate of Big Ten games on tap his week as 14 of the 18 teams are in action across seven conference games.
Three of those games take place in the Pacific Time zone, a first for the conference—and two are big.
If Penn State at USC is the appetizer for another conference game, you know we have some matchups to watch this week. And that is indeed the case.
No. 2 Ohio State visits No. 3 Oregon in a huge Top 5 matchup with Playoff implications.
And we have a trophy game this week as well!
I went 6-2 with my picks last week, bringing my overall conference record to 44-12, good for a 79% success rate.
Here is a look at Week Seven in the Big Ten and how I think the week will play out.
Northwestern at Maryland
Friday, October 11
6:00 pm PT, FOX
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Maryland –10
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5
This is big for each of them, but if the Terps are to go bowling this season, they can’t afford to let this one slip away at home, especially with a tough stretch upcoming.
Northwestern wins if…Jack Lausch makes a ton of plays. The QB has to improvise and provide offense be it through the air or with his legs. His ability to keep plays alive and make something out of nothing will be the factor for the Cats.
Maryland wins if…the Terps can own the trenches on offense. Northwestern’s defensive front is good. They are 17th nationally against the run, collecting 2.4 sacks per game.
If the Terps can control the line of scrimmage, they’ll be able to exploit the Wildcats defense.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Northwestern
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Maryland
Wisconsin at Rutgers
Saturday, October 12
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Rutgers –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 39.5
This season the Badgers are 1-4 against the spread while Rutgers is 4-1. The Scarlet Knights are 2-0 this season ATS as a home favorite, while the Badgers are 0-1 ATS on the road.
The trends seem to point towards Piscataway in this one.
Wisconsin wins if…Braedyn Locke can duplicate his performance from last week. Locke looked really good against Purdue—the keywords being against Purdue!
If he can play that well against the RU defense, the Badgers will be in good shape. Can’t have the two INTs he threw last week though.
Rutgers wins if…they can get the ground game rolling. Last week the Knights never got things going in their loss to Nebraska. The O-line needs to get a push and give Kyle Monangai room to work.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Rutgers
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Rutgers
Washington at Iowa
Saturday, October 12
9:00 am PT, FOX
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 41.5
For Iowa, things lighten up on the schedule following this game up to the finale against Nebraska—the lone potential hurdle being Wisconsin on November 2.
For Washington, things ratchet up as four of their final five games could be against ranked opponents.
Washington wins if…Will Rodgers continues to throw the ball to the right team. Rogers has been efficient this season and has only thrown one INT. He needs to be sharp in this one as the Hawkeyes are opportunistic and will make you pay for errors.
Iowa wins if…they can run the ball. The Huskies have gotten gashed at times on the ground this season. Four of the six opponents have averaged 4+ yards per carry.
Iowa has run the ball well, and if they can find success on the ground, they can win this one at home.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Iowa
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa
No. 4 Penn State at USC
Saturday, October 12
12:30 pm PT, FOX
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State –5.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5
Luckily for the Nittany Lions, USC’s loss to Minnesota knocked them out of the polls.
Just for good measure, though, Franklin already has his excuse handy in case of a loss. The runway in State College is too short so they need to bus to Harrisburg to make the flight to LAX.
The runway seemed long enough for UCLA last week, but I digress. PSU shouldn’t need the excuse and the flight back to Central PA should be a pleasant one.
Penn State wins if…they establish the run game early and often. PSU is averaging 217.8 yards rushing per game, USC has not been good against the run.
The Lions should be able to gain yards on the ground. Also, they need to make sure that hour-and-a-half bus ride doesn’t take too much out of them.
USC wins if…they win the third-down battle. USC’s defense is sixth in the nation on third downs with a conversion rate of 26.3%. PSU is seventh in the nation, converting on 52.8%. Now USC will need to force some third downs and then prevent the conversions.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Penn State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Penn State
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon
Saturday, October 12
4:30 pm PT, NBC
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 52.5
The winner of this game will have the inside track to the B1G title game and most likely a first-round CFP bye.
The key could be the line of scrimmage when UO has the ball. The Ducks have had some issues with their OL at times this season so that unit’s ability to control the OSU defensive front could determine the outcome.
Ohio State wins if…they can get the Ducks off the field. The Ducks have not shown the explosive big plays they’ve had in the past. The Buckeyes will need to limit the methodical marches on offense.
Offensively, the Buckeyes’ run game should hum. It may come down to Will Howard’s ability to make some plays.
Oregon wins if…they can stay on schedule. The Ducks look like they are clicking again, but their issues in the first few games stemmed from sacks and getting into third-and-long situations.
Oregon must keep things manageable against OSU, stopping the run when the Buckeyes have the ball.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State
Best Bets
Purdue at No. 23 Illinois
Saturday, October 12
12:30 pm PT, FS1
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Illinois –19.5
Over/Under Point Total: 49.5
Illinois has not picked up a win in the series at home since 2010 and Purdue has won four in a row over the Illini and seven of the last eight meetings.
This one seems decidedly different, however.
Illinois is one of just three schools nationally with two wins over AP-ranked teams this season (Tennessee and Syracuse are the others).
Purdue on the other hand is just a bad football team.
Purdue wins if…we should really say, “they cover the spread if”….and for that I’ll go with don’t turn it over. Purdue’s offense has been terrible in all facets. Illinois has created a lot of turnovers. If the Boilers give it away this one will get lopsided in a hurry.
Illinois wins if…they don’t outsmart themselves. Purdue has not been able to stop anyone on the ground. Just pound the ball and get the win. If the Boilers load up too much, Luke Altmyer can get the air attack going. Keep it simple and get the win.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Illinois
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Illinois
Minnesota at UCLA
Saturday, October 12
6:00 pm PT, Big Ten Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Minnesota –5.5
Over/Under Point Total: 40.5
Scoring points has been a struggle for the Bruins, and Minnesota isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut either. UCLA has been solid defensively.
The points total will stay low as long as turnovers don’t muck things up.
I think Minnesota will cover the 5.5 as they pull away late, but I’m not as confident as I am about the total.
Minnesota wins if…they know who they are and run the football. The Gophers ran the ball 40 times last week against USC and stuck with the ground game even when they trailed.
UCLA is good against the run, but the Gophers need to stick with it and trust they’ll get it going if they keep pounding it.
UCLA wins if…they can make plays in the backfield. UCLA needs to rack up the TFLs in this one and keep things uncomfortable for the Gophers. Also, it would not hurt to find some kind of running game on offense.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Minnesota
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Minnesota
Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks
2024 Week 7 Big 10 Games |
Straight-Up Picks |
Northwestern at Maryland Oct 4, 6:00 pm PT |
Maryland |
Wisconsin at Rutgers Oct 12, 9:00 am PT |
Rutgers |
Washington at Iowa Oct 12, 9:00 am PT |
Iowa |
No. 4 Penn State at USC Oct 12, 12:30 pm PT |
Penn State |
Purdue at No. 23 Illinois Oct 12, 12:30 pm PT |
Illinois |
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon Oct 12, 4:30 pm PT |
Ohio State |
Minnesota at UCLA Oct 12, 6:00 pm PT |
Minnesota |
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record | 44-12 (79%) |
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