Syracuse at No. 25 UNLV

Friday, October 4
6:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UNLV -6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 59.5

The Rebels are coming off a huge win over Fresno State and looked like a much better team offensively with Hajj-Malik Williams under center.

Syracuse has a potent offense and passing attack behind Kyle McCord.

This will be a stiffer test than Fresno offered last week. It’s a big number to open and I think Cuse could keep it tight.

Syracuse wins if…McCord doesn’t throw interceptions. The transfer from Ohio State leads the nation in passing yardage but has thrown five interceptions this season.

The Rebels will give up passing yards, but their nine interceptions are tied for the second most in the nation. The Orange will need McCord to take care of the ball.

UNLV wins if…they keep the balanced offense rolling. Ricky White was a factor for the first time all season last week.

The Rebels offense is potent when it is a threat to run or pass. Syracuse has a suspect defense and if the Rebels can keep the Orange guessing they’ll be in good shape.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Syracuse
Points total: Over
Outright winner: UNLV

Navy at Air Force

Saturday, October 5
9:00 am PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Navy -9.5
Over/Under Point Total: 34.5

When the academies tangle for the Commander in Chief Trophy the records can get thrown out and wins in these games can salvage a bad season and wreck a good one.

So, for the Falcons, this is a chance to reverse the first month of the season.

Key to remember: Since 2003, the under in games involving two service academies are 50-11-3.

Navy wins if…they keep getting sixes. The Midshipmen have had 14 red zone trips this season, all 14 have resulted in TDs. Maximizing points when you have the chance is a sure way to win games.

Air Force wins if…the Falcons don’t give the Mids a short field. As noted, Navy is very efficient in the red zone. They are also seventh nationally in turnover margin. Air Force can’t afford to give the ball away. Also, my weekly note: Get the ground game going.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Navy
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Navy

Colorado State at Oregon State

Saturday, October 5
3:30 pm PT, The CW

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon State -13.5
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5

The Beavers are just 1-2 in the last three seasons following a bye while the Rams are 2-1 since 2021 following a bye week.

The availability of Tory Horton following his groin injury will also have a lot to say about this one.

Colorado State wins if…they can limit the Beavers’ explosive runs. OSU has 35 runs of 10+ yards this season, tied for ninth in the nation. CSU has allowed just 13 such plays this season, ranking 20th in the nation. Controlling that stat could decide things.

Oregon State wins if…they continue to take care of the football. The Beavers turned it over on their first drive of the season and that remains the only give away this year. The Beavs are one of just four teams nationally with just one turnover this season.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon State

Utah State at No. 21 Boise State

Saturday, October 5
4:00 pm PT, FS2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boise State -26.5
Over/Under Point Total: 65.5

The Broncos look like players, not only in the Mountain West but also on the national stage. And not surprisingly, they find themselves ranked this week.

Utah State is 6-68 all-time against Associated Press-ranked teams, but five of those six wins have come in their last 19 opportunities.

Utah State wins if…the Aggies can get the passing game working. They are throwing the ball for 246 yards per game while Boise State is 109th in the nation against the pass. If the Aggies are to have a chance in this one, they’ll need to get the passing game going.

Boise State wins if…the Broncos hand the ball to Ashton Jeanty and let him do his thing. The Heisman hopeful leads the nation with 211.3 yards rushing per game.

The Aggies are 115th in the nation in run defense, allowing 196.8 rushing yards per game. Jeanty could inflate those Heisman numbers this week.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Boise State
Points total:  Over
Outright winner: Boise State

Hawai’i at San Diego State

Saturday, October 5
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: San Diego State -2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

Hawai’i is coming off their second win of the season against FCS opponents.

This is a huge game for both these teams as they look to pick up a win and build some momentum on the season.

Hawai’i wins if…they can force some turnovers. The Warriors have been opportunistic this season with six takeaways. SDSU has not given it away much with just three turnovers. If UH can win the turnover battle this game could turn in their favor.

San Diego State wins if…they can shut down the passing attack. The Aztecs have been pretty good against the pass this season allowing just under 200 through the air per game.

UH is 120th in the nation running the football. If the Aztecs can make them take the air out of the ball they should come away with a win.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Diego State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: San Diego State

Best Bet

Nevada at San Jose State

Saturday, October 5
4:30 pm PT, truTV

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: San Jose State -7
Over/Under Point Total: 48.5

Nevada is 2-14 in conference games since 2022.

These teams are going in different directions.

The Spartans have a chance to continue their MW success while the Wolf Pack have a chance at a signature win for Jeff Choate.

Nevada wins if…they can slow down the Spartans’ passing game. The SJSU aerial attack is excellent and the Pack have not defended well against the pass. If they can step up this week, they’ll have a chance.

San Jose State wins if…they continue to take the ball away. SJSU has forced 12 turnovers this season, which is good for fifth in the nation. The Spartans’ eight interceptions rank sixth in the nation and second in the Mountain West

—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: San Jose State

Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks

2024 Week 6 MW + Pac-2 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Syracuse at No. 25 UNLV Oct 4, 6:00 pm PT	UNLV
Navy at Air Force Oct 5, 9:00 am PT	Navy
Colorado State at Oregon State Oct 5, 3:30 pm PT	Oregon State
Utah State at No. 21 Boise State Oct 5, 4:00 pm PT	Boise State
Nevada at San Jose State Oct 5, 4:30 pm PT	San Jose State
Hawai’i at San Diego State Oct 5, 5:00 pm PT	San Diego State
Vilardo’s Overall MW + Pac-12 Record	41-5 (89%)

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