Posted on September 25, 2024
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The Mountain West and Pac-12 are engaged in a high-stakes realignment battle with a legal conflict looming, but the teams continue their on-field competitions as usual.
Last week Washington State defeated San Jose State in the lone contest between the Pac-12 holdovers and the MW via their scheduling deal.
In nonconference games against non-Pac-12 opponents, the Mountain West went a respectable 4-2. Oregon State played host to the worst of the Big Ten and got a convincing win as expected.
I went 8-1 in my MW and Pac-12 picks in Week 4, bringing my record to 37-4 on the season, good for a 90% success rate.
This week we have a limited schedule with the Beavers on a bye and only five games on offer.
One of those games could be a preview of the MW Championship game—or at the very least, go a long way in deciding who plays in that game in December.
Limited week or not, here is how I see those five contests playing out.
Top Games
San Diego State at Central Michigan
Saturday, Sept. 28
12:30 pm PT, CBS. Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Central Michigan –3
Over/Under Point Total: 54.5
That could be a challenge, but SDSU is 16-1-1 all-time vs current MAC teams.
The bigger challenge for the Aztecs will be slowing down a ground attack that is averaging almost 200 yards per.
San Diego State wins if…they limit the Chips’ big plays on the ground. CMU is running for 192 per game, but a lot of that has been big hitters. BJ Harris ran for 151 on just eight carries last game. The Aztecs have not been good against the run this season.
Central Michigan wins if…they don’t turn it over. In their two losses, the Chips are -7 in turnover margin. In their two wins, they have only given it away once.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Central Michigan
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Central Michigan
Fresno State at UNLV
Saturday, Sept 28
12:30 pm PT, FS1
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UNLV –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 52.5
The stunning development comes after a bye week with UNLV ranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll for the first time in program history. The Rebels will likely turn to Hajj-Malik Williams or Cameron Friel to replace Sluka.
Fresno State, which got its conference season off to a good start with a win over New Mexico last week, could be without Mose Vavao and Korey Foreman with the status of each in question.
Personnel issues aside, this contest could have gigantic implications in the MW race down the stretch.
Fresno State wins if…they can take away the Rebel running game, which ranks fifth in the nation at 292.3 per game.
The UNLV passing attack figures to be even less reliable than it was with Sluka at the helm. The Bulldogs need to make the Rebels throw the ball.
UNLV wins if…the defense continues to dominate. The Rebels boast the best defense in the MW, allowing just 13.7 points per game and just over 100 yards rushing per game. Fresno has not run the ball well this season and UNLV’s defense could take this one over.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: UNLV
Points total: Under
Outright winner: UNLV
Washington State at No. 25 Boise State
Saturday, Sept. 28
7:00 pm PT, FS1
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boise State –7.5
Over/Under Point Total: 65.5
The Cougs are coming off a thrilling two-point OT win over San Jose State while the Broncos are fresh off an easy win over Portland State.
The scoreboard operator will be busy in this one as both teams are averaging 46+ points per game this season.
Washington State wins if…the defense can make some plays. The Cougars are 128th in the nation in total defense and have had a hard time stopping anyone. They rank 15th nationally in takeaways, however.
If the Cougs can keep creating turnovers, the “bend but don’t break” approach can keep working.
Boise State wins if…Ashton Jeanty keeps leading the nation rushing the ball. Jeanty is running for 195.3 per outing.
The Cougars gave up 215 on the ground in the opener against Portland State but have been stiffer the last few games. Wazzu is still allowing 4.8 per carry.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Boise State
Best Bets
Air Force at Wyoming
Saturday, Sept. 28
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Air Force –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 36.5
High preseason expectations have given way to a combined 1-6 start for the two teams.
Neither team has been able to score, and Wyoming has yet to stop anyone—which could be the big difference.
Air Force should win and cover the 3.5, and I like the under a whole lot in this one.
Air Force wins if…they can get the ground game going. The Falcons have not run the ball well this season, especially by Air Force standards. Wyoming has been bad against the run allowing over 180 per outing. The Falcons could find their stride in this one.
Wyoming wins if…they can get any offense at all. The Cowboys have been abysmal on the offensive side of the ball this season, averaging just over 212 yards of offense per game, a dismal 132nd in the nation. They need some production this week.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Air Force
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Air Force
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Saturday, Sept. 28
5:00 pm PT, ESPN
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: New Mexico –8.5
Over/Under Point Total: 57.5
The Aggies have won two in a row in the series, but the Lobos looked poised to flip the script for the first time since 2021.
At a combined 1-7 on the season, both teams need this win in the worst way.
New Mexico wins if…they keep scoring. The Lobos offense has been good this season and UNM has weapons to put this one out of reach. If the offense rolls, NMSU will not be able to keep pace.
New Mexico State wins if…the defense can slow down the Lobos. NMSU’s offense is the second-worst in the nation, if the game turns into a track meet, the Aggies will not stand a chance. NMSU needs to have the defense step up.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points total: Over
Outright winner: New Mexico
Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks
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2024 Week 5 MW + Pac-2 Games |
Straight-Up Picks |
| SDSU at Central Michigan Sept 28, 12:30 pm PT |
Central Michigan |
| Fresno State at UNLV Sept 28, 12:30 pm PT |
UNLV |
| Air Force at Wyoming Sept 28, 5:00 pm PT |
Air Force |
| New Mexico at New Mexico State Sept 28, 5:00 pm PT |
New Mexico |
| WSU at No. 25. Boise State Sept 28, 7:00 pm PT |
Boise State |
| Vilardo’s Overall MW + Pac-12 Record | 37-4 (90%) |
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