Washington at Rutgers

Friday, Sept. 27
5:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Rutgers –3
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5

The Huskies’ first road game in the Big Ten have them traveling cross country to play an exceptionally difficult Rutgers outfit.

This is a big one for the Scarlet Knights to cement themselves as a program in the top half of the Conference.

For UW, it is a chance to secure a big road win and build on the momentum of a conference-opening victory last week.

Washington wins if…the defense can shut down the RU running game. The UW defense has been stout this season and is 38th nationally against the run. This will be their toughest test to date.

Kyle Monangai is third in the nation in rushing yards. The Husky D will need to be ready for a physical evening.

Rutgers wins if…they put pressure on Will Rogers. The UW passing attack has been good this season. If Rogers has time, he can pick apart a defense.

The Knights have not gotten many sacks this season, but they have caused hurries. To win this one RU will need to make plays in the backfield.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Rutgers

Maryland at Indiana

Saturday, Sept. 28
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Indiana -7
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5

Indiana has created a lot of hype with their hot start. Curt Cignetti is the first coach in Hoosier history to open his tenure with four straight wins.

Things get a bit more difficult this week with a visit from the Terps.

While the Hoosiers are sniffing success, Maryland has become accustomed to it winning at least eight games in each of the last two seasons.

Maryland wins if…Tai Felton gets loose. Indiana has looked good this season, but if there is one shaky spot it’s been in coverage. The Maryland WR is third in the nation in receiving yards per game. If he gets loose, the Terps offense could have a big day.

Indiana wins if…the Hoosiers make Billy Edwards uncomfortable. The Indiana offense will score points, and Maryland will need to answer. UMD has struggled to run the ball, and the Hoosiers will not give up a lot on the ground anyway.

IU needs to keep the pressure on Billy Edwards and force errors.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Maryland
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Indiana

Minnesota at No. 12 Michigan

Saturday, Sept. 28
9:00 am PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan –9.5
Over/Under Point Total: 38.5

Michigan and Minnesota will meet on the gridiron for the 106th time, marking the 99th game in which the winner claims the Little Brown Jug.

The most famous 30-cent five-gallon earthenware water jug is the oldest traveling trophy in college football. It has lived in Michigan after 73 of the 98 meetings. Will it stay with Michigan, or will the Gophers take it back to Minneapolis for the 24th time?

Minnesota wins if…they take away the run game. Make Alex Orji beat you; he has not yet shown the ability to do that. Take the run game away from Michigan to succeed. However, doing that is far easier said than done.

Michigan wins if…they don’t let Darius Taylor have any room to work. The Gopher back had just 34 yards on 10 carries last week. Minnesota will not be able to throw, and if Taylor is bottled up, the offense will not produce.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Minnesota
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan

Nebraska at Purdue

Saturday, Sept. 28
9:00 am PT, Peacock

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Nebraska –10
Over/Under Point Total: 49.5

Nebraska is coming off a bad loss. Purdue is just bad.

The Huskers had their opportunities against the Illini last week and came up short. Scott Frost was 5-22 in one-score games and Matt Rhule is now 1-6 with Nebraska in the same category.

Perhaps the past is the prologue in Lincoln? Nah, things still look much brighter than in the Frost era.

And on the bright side, this one should not be close.

Nebraska wins if…it’s not a one-score game! In all seriousness, the Huskers need better play out of their front seven on defense. The pressure was nonexistent last week against an Illini squad that allowed three sacks to CMU the week prior.

Purdue wins if…Hudson Card can perform like he is capable of, or we think he is. He opened the season completing 96% of his passes in the opener against ISU. Since then, he has only connected on 43% of his passes.

If Purdue is to stand a chance in this one or at all this season, he needs to be the Texas Card and not the version the Boilers are getting right now.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Nebraska
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Nebraska

Wisconsin at No. 13 USC

Saturday, Sept. 28
12:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: USC –14.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

It was a tale of two halves for the Trojans in their first Big Ten conference game. Now the Trojans need to rebound.

Wisconsin is coming off a bye, giving them more time to stew over the blowout loss at home to Alabama—and more importantly, the Badgers had an extra week to get new QB Braedyn Locke ready to go.

Wisconsin wins if…they get Braedyn Locke comfortable early. That means running the ball effectively and a lot of short passes. Ease things in and then the big shot could be there later.

USC wins if…they can stop the Wisconsin rushing offense. The Trojans allowed 290 yards on the ground last week. Take the ground game away and put heavy pressure on the inexperienced QB.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: USC
Points total: Under
Outright winner: USC

No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State

Saturday, Sept. 28
4:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State –17
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5

Penn State is 3-0 and averaging 41.3 points per game after rolling up 700+ yards of offense last week.

Illinois is off to its first 4-0 start since 2011 and just the second since 1951.

The Illini already have a pair of wins over ranked opponents this season; number three could prove the most challenging.

Illinois wins if…Luke Altmyer keeps making plays and not turning the ball over. The QB has thrown 10 and no picks on the season while completing 70%+.

The WRs are talented, and the defense is good enough that if the Illini can keep getting good QB play, they can play with anyone.

Penn State wins if…the offensive line can dominate. The Nittany Lions’ O-line had some holes to fill in the offseason and has looked very good so far.

The Illini front will present a much stiffer test than PSU has seen so far. If the line can dominate, the Nittany Lions should roll.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Illinois
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Penn State

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No. 3 Ohio State at Michigan State

Saturday, Sept. 28
4:30 pm PT, Peacock

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State –24.5
Over/Under Point Total: 49.5

Michigan State is 3-1 and already has a Big Ten victory under its belt with a win at Maryland.

In a way, the Spartans are playing with house money in this one. Nothing is expected of them.

Ohio State is looking to open the Big Ten portion of their schedule with a convincing win.

Ohio State wins if…they control the line of scrimmage and take Aidan Chiles out of the game. Chiles has been up and down this season.

MSU has not run the ball well. If the Buckeyes take away the run and get heat on the young QB, this one will be over by halftime.

Michigan State wins if…Aidan Chiles has a career game and then some. It’s pretty much pick your poison with the OSU offense. Load up against the run and Will Howard can beat you. Key on the pass and the running game will make you pay.

Chiles and the offense will need to put points up every time they touch it and a lot of the offense might need to be Chiles’ improvising.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Ohio State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Ohio State

No. 8 Oregon at UCLA

Saturday, Sept. 28
8:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon –24
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5

And finally, we get our first installment of Big Ten After Dark. The addition of the West Coast teams to the B1G begins to feel real this week with an 11 pm start on the East Coast.

Now whether the Bruins can keep it a game beyond the witching hour is another story.

The Bruins have struggled, the Ducks seem to have gotten their offensive backfield issues under control, and Dillon Gabriel has only thrown 15 incomplete passes all season.

This has the makings of a rout. The Ducks –24 is my best bet.

Oregon wins if…the Ducks continue to shore things up. Before the bye week, UO played their best game of the season against OSU. Continue to improve and keep Gabriel upright and the Ducks will win this one going away.

UCLA wins if…they can get pressure. Oregon struggled in their first two outings primarily because of sacks and long-yardage third-down situations. If the Bruins can duplicate that formula, they will have a puncher’s chance.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Oregon

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Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks

 

2024 Week 5 Big 10 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Washington at Rutgers Sept 27, 5:00 pm PT	Rutgers
Maryland at Indiana Sept 28, 9:00 am PT	Indiana
Minnesota at No. 12 Michigan Sept 28, 9:00 am PT	Michigan
Nebraska at Purdue Sept 28, 9:00 am PT	Nebraska
Wisconsin at No. 13 USC Sept 28, 12:30 pm PT	USC
No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State Sept 28, 4:30 pm PT	Penn State
No. 3 Ohio State at Michigan State Sept 28, 4:30 pm PT	Ohio State
No. 8 Oregon at UCLA Sept 28, 8:00 pm PT	Oregon
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record	30-10 (75%)

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