Top Games

 

No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska

Friday, Sept. 20
5:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Nebraska –9
Over/Under Point Total: 43.5

Both teams are unbeaten with wins over rivals from the Big 12.

This is a huge one for these teams, for which 2024 may be their year.

The winner will have a leg up with a 1-0 conference start and momentum.

Illinois wins if…they get some takeaways. The Illini are second in the nation with a turnover margin of +2.67. If the defense continues to cause errors, Illinois can cash in.

Nebraska wins if…the defense keeps playing like they have so far. The Husker defense is looking like the Black Shirts of old, allowing just 20 total points this season, the fewest they have allowed through three games since 2005.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Illinois
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Nebraska

Charlotte at Indiana

Saturday, Sept. 21
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Indiana –28.5
Over/Under Point Total: 48.5

Indiana is coming off their largest conference road margin of victory since 2001. The question this week is if they can handle a little success without a letdown against a lesser opponent. For the 49ers, it’s a chance to pull an upset while making a payday.

Charlotte wins if…they can get some pressure on the passing game. Kurtis Rourke has looked good this season, but he has not been pressured, Indiana has allowed just two sacks all season. Get him under duress and see if you can force some errors.

Indiana wins if…they continue to win third downs. The Hoosiers are second in the nation converting 64.5% of their third downs while holding opponents to 25.7% (Charlotte is converting on 25.6%). Stay on schedule and IU could put this one away early.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Indiana

Marshall at No. 3 Ohio State

Saturday, Sept. 21
9:00 am PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State –39.5
Over/Under Point Total: 51.5

Ohio State is 2-0 and will play for the first time with their best offensive lineman. Poor Marshall.

Marshall wins if…they can get the running game to sustain. AJ Turner has put together consecutive 100-yard games on eight carries and six carries.

The explosiveness is great, but outside of his blasts, the team has just managed 184 yards on 48 carries. The run game needs to be more consistent.

Ohio State wins if…they take away the big play. Marshall’s passing offense has been a glaring issue this season, along with defending the run. Force Stone Earle to make plays and the Buckeyes will get turnovers.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Ohio State
Points total:  Over
Outright winner: Ohio State

No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan

Saturday, Sept. 21
12:30 pm PT CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: USC –5.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

Conference openers are always big ones to get things off on the right foot—but even more so when you have a chance to knock off a fellow title contender.

Although Michigan has looked far from a contender, USC appears to be up for the challenge.

It is worth noting that Miller Moss is completing 90.9% of his passes this season when facing pressure. UM may not be able to rattle him.

USC wins if…the defense is as good as advertised this season. D’Anton Lynn has that unit humming. Michigan’s offense will not be as potent as what the Trojans saw against LSU. They could take this one over.

Michigan wins if…they get the offense figured out. Donovan Edwards has not been great so far and the QB play has been bad. It all starts with the line though.

The Wolverines are allowing pressure on 25% of their dropbacks. That could play right into the USC defensive game plan.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: USC
Points total: Under
Outright winner: USC

UCLA at No. 16 LSU

Saturday, Sept. 21
12:30 pm PT ABC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: LSU –25.5
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5

UCLA heads to LSU in a bad spot.

LSU gets this one after escaping South Carolina with a win. The line is big, and there appears to be a big talent gap as well.

LSU is 9-2 against the spread as a home favorite under Brian Kelly, giving this one blowout potential.

UCLA wins if…the offense gets things going, especially on the ground. Ethan Garbers is completing just 54.1% of his passes but the lack of a running game might be the bigger issue.

LSU wins if…they control the line of scrimmage. The Tigers are the better team in this one and look for them to control things in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: LSU
Points total: Under
Outright winner: LSU

Northwestern at Washington

Saturday, Sept. 21
4:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington –10
Over/Under Point Total: 43.5

The Big Ten is a reality for Washington as they host the Wildcats in their conference opener.

Both teams are 2-1 and will look to open conference play with a victory.

Northwestern wins if…the Wildcats win the red zone. They are 21st in the nation in red zone defense and have allowed just three touchdowns in six red zone situations. The Huskies left points on the board last week with just one FG in two RZ visits.

Washington wins if…they cut back on the penalties. The Huskies have got to stop killing themselves with flags. They rank 132nd in the nation in penalty yards per game and penalties called in a game.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Washington

Iowa at Minnesota

Saturday, Sept. 21
4:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 36.5

Floyd!!  That is why this one is big: The winner takes home the Floyd of Rosedale (it’s a statue of a pig).

Iowa has taken four straight and 18 of the last 23 but each of the last three and seven of the last nine have been one-score games.

Look for this one to be tight late as well.

Iowa wins if…they keep running the ball. The Hawkeyes have run for 200+ in consecutive games for the first time since 2013. The Gophers are 20th against the run, if Iowa is to have success they’ll need to move the ball on the ground.

Minnesota wins if…get pressure on Cade McNamara to force mistakes. The Gophers are second in the nation with seven interceptions. The opportunistic defense will make you pay for poor decisions in the passing game.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Iowa
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa

Michigan State at Boston College

Saturday, Sept. 21
5:00 pm PT, ACC Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boston College –7
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5

Michigan State struggled in their opener against FAU but has looked much better the last two weeks with a conference win over Maryland and a shutout of Prairie View.

Boston College found themselves ranked after two wins to open the season before falling in a tough road game at Missouri.

There’s no shame in falling to the Tigers by six in Columbia. The Eagles are a little more tested in this one.

Michigan State wins if…Aidan Chiles can get more consistent. The QB has shown signs of greatness, but also signs of being a first-year starter. He needs to improve on his 56% passing.

Boston College wins if…the defensive line takes over. The BC front seven is big and physical and can take over any game. If the Eagles shut down the run and make plays in the backfield it will be a long day for Sparty.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Boston College
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Boston College

Best Bets

Rutgers at Virginia Tech

Saturday, Sept. 21
12:30 pm PT, ACC Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Virginia Tech –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 44.5

I am calling the under 44.5 my best bet. That total started at 46.5 and is at 44.5 as of this writing. It’s falling for a reason.

Both teams play good defense and run the ball. Rutgers is 13th nationally running on 66% of snaps. VA Tech is almost a 60/40 split.

Neither team trusts their QBs and the running game is going to shorten things.

Under all day, I also like the Knights to win this one outright on the road.

Rutgers wins if…Kyle Monangi has himself a day. The bast back most people have never heard of is second in the nation this season with 186.5 yards per game. If he can approach his average the Knights will be in good shape, and he might not be unknown nationally for much longer.

Va Tech wins if…Kyle Drone takes the next step that was expected this season. The junior QB was looked at as a player that would step up big time in 2024. So far that has not happened. If he can make plays with his arms and legs, the Hokies will hold serve at home with a win.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Rutgers
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Rutgers

Purdue at Oregon State

Saturday, Sept. 21
5:30 pm PT, The CW

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon State –4.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

Both teams are coming off rough outings to an in-state foe.

The Beavs fell to Oregon. The Boilermakers got railroaded and embarrassed by Notre Dame.

Purdue is a bad team; I don’t think OSU is. How this is only a 4.5-point spread in Corvallis is beyond me.

Purdue wins if…Hudson Card is effective at QB. He was 24-25 vs Indiana State, but completed just 11 of 21 vs Notre Dame. He needs to complete closer to 70% than 40% if the Boilers are to stand any chance.

Oregon State wins if…they run the ball. Purdue gave up 362 yards on the ground last week. OSU averages 243.3 per game on the ground. Let the offensive line take this one over.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon State
Points total:  Under
Outright winner: Oregon State

---

Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks

2024 Week 4 Big 10 Games	Straight-Up Picks
No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska Sept 20, 5:00 pm PT	Nebraska
Charlotte at Indiana Sept 21, 9:00 am PT	Indiana
Marshall at No. 3 Ohio State Sept 21, 9:00 am PT	Ohio State
No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan Sept 21, 12:30 pm PT	USC
UCLA at No. 16 LSU Sept 21, 12:30 pm PT	LSU
Rutgers at Virginia Tech Sept 21, 12:30 pm PT	Rutgers
Northwestern at Washington Sept 21, 4:00 pm PT	Washington
Iowa at Minnesota Sept 21, 4:30 pm PT	Iowa
Michigan State at Boston College Sept 21, 5:00 pm PT	Boston College
Purdue at Oregon State Sept 21, 5:30 pm PT	Oregon State
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record	22-8 (73%)

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US)
Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY)
Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA)

21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. First Bet Offer up to $1500*. *Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.