Top Games

Kansas at West Virginia

Saturday, Sept. 21
9:00 am PT, ESPN2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: West Virginia -2.5

What’s at Stake: The Jayhawks’ season is on the brink of falling apart.

Coming off losses to Illinois and UNLV, Kansas is not in a good spot.

West Virginia is not much better off, though, entering the matchup without a victory against an FBS school.

Why Kansas Wins: The Jayhawk defense contains West Virginia’s run game and quarterback Jalon Daniels doesn’t throw any interceptions.

Why West Virginia Wins: Quarterback Garrett Greene runs the ball effectively and the Mountaineers’ secondary makes plays.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: West Virginia
Straight Up: West Virginia

Houston at Cincinnati

Saturday, Sept. 21
9:00 am PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Cincinnati -3.5

What’s at Stake: Houston enters the game with some momentum after playing Oklahoma close and crushing Rice.

But Cincinnati is feeling confident, too, after beating Miami (Ohio) on the road.

The trajectory of each team’s season could be on the line.

Why Houston Wins: The Cougar defense provides the stops needed and the Houston running backs find space to exploit.

Why Cincinnati Wins: Quarterback Brendan Sorsby takes care of the ball the way he has to start the season and running back Corey Kiner has success on the ground.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Cincinnati
Straight Up: Cincinnati

Arkansas State at No. 20 Iowa State

Saturday, Sept. 21
11:00 am PT, ESPN+

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa State -21.5

What’s at Stake: Iowa State returns from its bye week after upsetting rival Iowa in Week Two.

The Cyclone offense has yet to score more than 21 points this season, but its defense is allowing just 11.0 points per game.

An underwhelming margin of victory would be questionable.

Why Arkansas State Wins: The Red Wolves’ defense holds ISU quarterback Rocco Becht under his average completion percentage of 70.5 and contains the Clones’ run game.

Why Iowa State Wins: The Cyclones’ defense disrupts the timing of the Arkansas State plays with consistent penetration off the line of scrimmage.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Arkansas State
Straight Up: Iowa State

Arizona State at Texas Tech

Saturday, Sept. 21
12:30 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Texas Tech -3

What’s at Stake: The Sun Devils are in position to make a run in the Big 12.

Kenny Dillingham’s team is playing better than almost anyone expected, but it’s Arizona State’s first road game against a Power Conference opponent.

A day game in the West Texas sun might favor Texas Tech more than some may think.

Why Arizona State Wins: Cam Skattebo has an efficient day on the ground and the Sun Devil defensive front gets consistent pressure into the Texas Tech backfield.

Why Texas Tech Wins: The Red Raider secondary forces interceptions and running back Tahj Brooks moves the chains throughout the game.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Texas Tech
Straight Up: Texas Tech

No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State

Saturday, Sept. 21
1:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oklahoma State -1.5

What’s at Stake: It’s not an understatement to call this matchup the biggest game in the Big 12 this season.

According to a Deseret News report this week, Cam Rising is expected to start, but that could be a game-time decision.

If Rising doesn’t start or can’t play the entire game, true freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson could be walking into arguably the toughest road environment in the league.

Why Utah Wins: The Ute defense forces Alan Bowman to make poor throws and interceptions. The Utah defensive line wins the line of scrimmage and Morgan Scalley’s linebackers wreak havoc all game.

Why Oklahoma State Wins: Ollie Gordon effectively moves the ball against the Utah front seven.

On defense, if Rising plays, containing the traditional ground game becomes more of an emphasis to force Utah to be one-dimensional through the air. If the QB duties fall to Wilson, the Cowbows will look to contain him from scrambling for positive yards.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Oklahoma State
Straight Up: Oklahoma State

TCU at SMU

Saturday, Sept. 21
2:00 pm PT, The CW

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: TCU -3

What’s at Stake: The old Dallas Metropolitan rivals face off for the 103rd time in history.

TCU has dominated the matchup this century, going 18-4 since 2000.

The rivalry has been played almost every year dating all the way back to 1915.

Why TCU Wins: The Horned Frog players control their committed penalties and quarterback Josh Hoover carves up the SMU secondary.

Why SMU Wins: Quarterback Kevin Jennings extends plays with his legs and connects with his receivers on the move.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: TCU
Straight Up: TCU

No. 13 Kansas State at BYU

Saturday, Sept. 21
7:30 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Kansas State -6.5

What’s at Stake: This is a pivotal game for the trajectory of BYU’s program.

The Cougars should be able to develop an elite home-field advantage where road teams only rarely win.

Facing a ranked Kansas State team at night, BYU has a golden opportunity to reshape the narratives.

Why Kansas State Wins: Avery Johnson is smart with the ball and effectively scrambles for yards. The KSU defense gets pressure on quarterback Jake Retzlaff to force interceptions.

Why BYU Wins: The BYU offensive line provides the push needed for the running backs to get downfield. Retzlaff makes the correct reads and executes the throws while dealing with pressure.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Kansas State
Straight Up: Kansas State

Best Bet

Baylor at Colorado

Saturday, Sept. 21
4:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado -1.5

What’s at Stake: Colorado fell apart last season after getting thumped by Oregon.

This year, the Buffs responded to a blowout loss with a convincing win over rival Colorado State.

The confidence levels are high in the program and it could show with another convincing result.

Why Baylor Wins: The Baylor front seven creates knockdowns, hurries, and sacks on Shedeur Sanders. On offense, quarterback Sawyer Robertson is efficient through the air and the running backs have strong games.

Why Colorado Wins: The CU offensive line provides the time needed for the elite receiving corps to get into open space. Sanders connects on his throws and the receivers rack up yards after catch.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Colorado
Straight Up: Colorado

Dane Miller’s Big 12 Game Picks

2024 Week 4 Big 12 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Kansas at West Virginia Sept 21, 9:00 am PT	West Virginia
Houston at Cincinnati Sept 21, 9:00 am PT	Cincinnati
Arkansas State at No. 20 Iowa Sept 21, 11:00 am PT	Iowa State
Arizona State at Texas Tech Sept 21, 12:30 pm PT	Texas Tech
No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State Sept 21, 1:00 pm PT	Oklahoma State
TCU at SMU Sept 21, 2:00 pm PT	TCU
Baylor at Colorado Sept 21, 4:00 pm PT	Colorado
No. 13 Kansas State at BYU Sept 21, 7:30 pm PT	Kansas State
Miller’s Overall Big 12 Record	23-7 (77%)