Posted on September 17, 2024
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I feature eight of them here as my choices for the “Top Games” for Week Four, and two others as my selections for “Best Bets.”
For each contest, I break down What’s at Stake and what both teams Must do to Win.
Last week, I went 8-2 straight up, hitting on 80% of my selections, giving me a 21-9 conference record through three weeks, good for a 70% success rate on the season.
My picks for this week, both against the spread and straight up, are included with each breakdown and are summarized in the table below.
Top Games
Stanford at Syracuse
Friday, Sept. 20
4:30 pm PT, ESPN
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Syracuse -10
What’s at Stake: The Cardinal looked better than last season in their primetime game against TCU in Week One.
Troy Taylor’s team throttled Cal Poly the following week and are coming off a bye.
Stanford could surprise Syracuse if the Orange overlook them.
Why Stanford Wins: The designed quarterback run plays are used sparingly but effectively. The more traditional run plays are successful, allowing quarterback Ashton Daniels to complete chunk passes when throwing.
Why Syracuse Wins: The Orange’s defense wins the line of scrimmage and contains Daniels when he runs. None of the players take Stanford lightly and are ready to play from the start.
—My Picks—
Against Spread: Stanford
Straight Up: Syracuse
NC State at No. 21 Clemson
Saturday, Sept. 21
9:00 am PT, ABC
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Clemson -20.5
What’s at Stake: There aren’t going to be many berths from the ACC into the College Football Playoff.
There’s a growing potential that the league will only get one team into the postseason.
Clemson’s chances will become slim if they don’t handle NC State.
Why NC State Wins: The Wolfpack get production from the receiving corps outside of Kevin Concepcion and Justin Joly.
Why Clemson Wins: Running back Phil Mafah moves the ball against the NC State defense and Clemson limits its penalties.
—My Picks—
Against Spread: NC State
Straight Up: Clemson
Georgia Tech at No. 19 Louisville
Saturday, Sept. 21
12:30 pm PT, ESPN2
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Louisville -10.5
What’s at Stake: Louisville faces its first test of the season when it hosts conference opponent Georgia Tech.
The Cardinals have blown out their first two opponents and enter the game ranked in the AP Top 25.
The result could indicate how good Louisville actually is.
Why Georgia Tech Wins: The Yellow Jackets’ defense gets pressure on quarterback Tyler Shough to force poor throws.
Why Louisville Wins: The Cardinals’ run game is effective, easing the burden on Shough and opening up the entire offense.
—My Picks—
Against Spread: Georgia Tech
Straight Up: Louisville
Rutgers at Virginia Tech
Saturday, Sept. 21
12:30 pm PT, ACC Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Virginia Tech -3.5
What’s at Stake: Rutgers enters the game with a 2-0 mark and faces its first Power Conference opponent of the year.
The Scarlet Knights blew out Howard and Akron, but are somewhat of an unknown.
Virginia Tech has faced three quality opponents and should be more prepared.
Why Rutgers Wins: Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has an efficient day throwing the ball and Rutgers’ run game moves the chains.
Why Virginia Tech Wins: The Hokies take care of the ball and the offensive line opens holes to run through.
—My Picks—
Against Spread: Rutgers
Straight Up: Rutgers
Duke at Middle Tennessee
Saturday, Sept. 21
1:00 pm PT, ESPNU
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Duke -14.5
What’s at Stake: The Blue Devils head to Murfreesboro for an unusual matchup with Middle Tennessee.
It’s the definition of a trap game, but it’s on the schedule and Duke better be ready.
The Blue Raiders are not the same program they once were and enter the game with a losing record.
Why Duke Wins: The Blue Devil defense forces interceptions due to their defensive line getting consistent pressure.
Why Middle Tennessee Wins: The Blue Raiders’ offensive line provides the push for the traditional run plays to be effective.
—My Picks—
Against Spread: Duke
Straight Up: Duke
TCU at SMU
Saturday, Sept. 21
2:00 pm PT, The CW
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: TCU -2.5
What’s at Stake: The old Dallas Metropolitan rivals face off for the 103rd time in history.
TCU has dominated the matchup this century, going 18-4 since 2000.
The rivalry has been played almost every year dating all the way back to 1915.
Why TCU Wins: The Horned Frog players control their committed penalties and quarterback Josh Hoover carves up the SMU secondary.
Why SMU Wins: Quarterback Kevin Jennings extends plays with his legs and connects with his receivers on the move.
—My Picks—
Against Spread: TCU
Straight Up: TCU
California at Florida State
Saturday, Sept. 21
4:00 pm PT, ESPN2
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Florida State -2.5
What’s at Stake: The Golden Bears are in position to get another signature win.
Coming into the matchup 3-0 with a victory over Auburn, Cal has the nation’s attention.
A victory over Florida State would propel California’s Playoff campaign to new heights.
Why California Wins: The California defense gets pressure on DJ Uiagalelei to force sacks, poor throws, and interceptions.
Why Florida State Wins: The Seminole defense frustrates Cal’s run game and forces Fernando Mendoza to beat them through the air.
—My Picks—
Against Spread: California
Straight Up: California
Michigan State at No. 24 Boston College
Saturday, Sept. 21
5:00 pm PT, ACC Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boston College -7
What’s at Stake: Michigan State is 3-0 under Jonathan Smith and already has a road win over a Power Conference opponent.
Aidan Chiles has struggled, but the sophomore has done enough to win games.
The matchup presents another test in Chiles’ early career.
Why Michigan State Wins: Chiles doesn’t turn the ball over and is able to gain yards with his legs when plays break down.
Why Boston College Wins: The Eagles vary their looks on defense to confuse Chiles, resulting in interceptions and missed throws.
—My Picks—
Against Spread: Michigan State
Straight Up: Michigan State
Best Bets
Virginia at Coastal Carolina
Saturday, Sept. 21
11:00 am PT, ESPN+
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Virginia -3.5
What’s at Stake: Coastal Carolina might not be the program it was a few years ago, but the Chanticleers have this matchup circled.
With the opportunity to take down a Power Conference opponent, Virginia is officially on upset alert.
The Cavaliers are looking to bounce back after losing to Maryland last week.
Why Virginia Wins: Quarterback Anthony Colandrea limits his interceptions while effectively running when needed.
Why Coastal Carolina Wins: The Chanticleers meet or exceed their average of 5.2 yards per rush.
—My Picks—
Against Spread: Virginia
Straight Up: Virginia
No. 8 Miami at South Florida
Saturday, Sept. 21
4:00 pm PT, ESPN
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Miami -16.5
What’s at Stake: Miami is rolling and looks like a Playoff team.
Cam Ward is thriving in Mario Cristobal’s offense and Damien Martinez is eating. There might not be a better quarterback-running back duo in the country.
Another blowout victory would force the AP Voters to show Miami more respect.
Why Miami Wins: Ward and Martinez feed off each other, gashing South Florida in the air and on the ground.
Why South Florida Wins: Quarterback Byrum Brown exceeds his average completion percentage of 56.0 and running back Nay’Quan Wright has a 100+ yard game.
—My Picks—
Against Spread: Miami
Straight Up: Miami
Dane Miller’s ACC Game Picks
2024 Week 4 ACC Games |
Straight-Up Picks |
Stanford at Syracuse Sep 20, 4:30 pm PT |
Syracuse |
NC State at No. 21 Clemson Sep 21, 9:00 am PT |
Clemson |
Virginia at Coastal Carolina Sep 21, 11:00 am PT |
Virginia |
Georgia Tech at No. 19 Louisville Sep 21, 12:30 pm PT |
Louisville |
Rutgers at Virginia Tech Sep 14, 12:30 pm PT |
Rutgers |
Duke at Middle Tennessee Sep 21, 1:00 pm PT |
Duke |
TCU at SMU Sep 21, 2:00 pm PT |
TCU |
Cal at Florida State Sep 21, 4:00 pm PT |
California |
No. 8 Miami at South Florida Sep 21, 4:00 pm PT |
Miami |
Michigan St at No. 24 Boston College Sep 21, 5:00 pm PT |
Michigan State |
Miller’s Overall ACC Record | 21-9 (70%) |
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