Top Games

UNLV at Kansas

Friday, Sept. 13
4:00 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Kansas –7
Over/Under Point Total: 56.5

UNLV wins if…Matt Sluka plays well. The Holy Cross transfer has completed just 46% of his passes but is a threat in the running game. In this one, he will need to throw the ball and get the playmakers on the outside involved.

The home-field advantage will be minimized in Kansas City at the home of Sporting KC while their normal stadium is undergoing renovations.

Kansas wins if…Jalon Daniels can run the ball. The Kansas QB has not been the explosive runner the Jayhawks need and looks like the back injury that cut his season short last year may still be an issue.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: UNLV
Points total: Over
Outright winner: UNLV

Nevada at Minnesota

Saturday, Sept. 14
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Minnesota –16.5
Over/Under Point Total: 44.0

Both teams need this one for momentum heading into conference play.

Nevada wins if…they score points. Minnesota’s defense is going to make things difficult, but Nevada needs to create some chances. If they can’t score more than the 17 they put up last week they will be in trouble.

Minnesota wins if…Max Brosmer continues to improve. The QB had a few hiccups against UNC but rebounded with a solid performance against Rhode Island. If the Gophers can get production from him, they will be just fine.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Nevada
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Minnesota

No. 9 Oregon at Oregon State

Saturday, Sept. 14
12:30 pm PT, Fox

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon –16.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

Oregon State looked very good on both sides of the ball in their win over San Diego State. OSU is limiting opponents to 7.5 points per game and just 77 yards per game on the ground.

Oregon wins if…they cut down on the sacks. Whether the sacks are on Dillion Gabriel or the O-Line it does not matter—the fact remains that it has to improve. The Ducks are giving up 3.5 sacks per game, only five teams in the nation are allowing more per game.

Oregon State wins if…the offense keeps clicking. The OSU “D” is always going to be good, but the offense was efficient against SDSU.

Gaining 237 yards on the ground, holding the ball for two-thirds of the game…match that against the Ducks and it will be a very good night in Corvallis.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon

Washington vs Washington State

Saturday, Sept. 14
12:30 pm PT, Peacock
Lumen Field

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington –4.5
Over/Under Point Total: 58.5

But looking beyond the rivalry and bragging rights, for the Cougars it’s a chance to get a second win over an opponent from a power conference and get halfway to bowl eligibility.

For the Huskies, a victory would ensure a good nonconference win and a 3-0 start heading into B1G play.

Washington wins if…the defense continues to play like they have. UW is allowing just 228.5 total yards per game. The degree of difficulty should go up by a bunch this week, but if the Husky defense is really that good then it’ll be Purple Reign in Seattle.

Washington State wins if…John Mateer makes things happen. The QB shattered the WSU single-game rushing record by a QB with 197 last week. If he can be explosive with his arm and his legs, it will cause a lot of issues for the Huskies.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Washington

New Mexico at Auburn

Saturday, Sept. 14
4:30 pm PT, ESPN 2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Auburn –28
Over/Under Point Total: 61.5

We’ll see if the Lobos can follow up with the same result as their archrivals did with a trip to the plains this week.

New Mexico wins if…they can stop the Tigers. The Lobos can score points, the question is, Can they actually stop anyone else from scoring? So far, the answer has been no. Make plays on defense and give the offense a chance.

Auburn wins if…they don’t have a letdown. The Tigers struggled at Cal last week. They can’t allow the Bears to beat them twice. Move on from that one and get the win over the Lobos. We’ll see if Hugh Freeze can get his guys ready to play.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Auburn

Air Force at Baylor

Saturday, Sept. 14
4:30 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Baylor –15.5
Over/Under Point Total: 41.5

Air Force wins if…they get the ground game going! Entering the season, you knew there would be a drop-off in the rushing attack given the pieces gone from last year.

But the Falcons are averaging just 3.1 per carry and 154.5 per game on the ground. They need to run the ball more effectively in this one to stand a chance.

Baylor wins if…they force the Falcons to throw the ball. Baylor was excellent against the run vs Tarleton State—but it was Tarleton State. Utah ran the ball on them last week. The Bears will need to be stout up front in this one.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Air Force
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Baylor

Colorado at Colorado State

Saturday, Sept. 14
4:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado –7.5
Over/Under Point Total: 58.5

Whoever claims this one will keep the Centennial State bragging rights for five years.

Colorado wins if…they throw the ball. The Buffs could not run against Nebraska at all, but they may not have to in this one. The Rams have been really bad against the pass this season. Quinn Ewers and Texas lit them up.

If Shedeur Sanders is to be in the same conversation as other elite QBs, he needs to do the same.

Colorado State wins if…the Rams get pressure and take the pass game away from the Buffs. Colorado has several issues on the O-line and the Rams need to take advantage of that. Also, CU is soft, very soft. Get them out of their game.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Colorado State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Colorado

BYU at Wyoming

Saturday, Sept. 14
6:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: BYU –10.5
Over/Under Point Total: 39.5

For the Cougs, this one is important to keep the momentum rolling. For the Cowboys, this is a chance to salvage things.

BYU wins if…the defense continues to play the way they have this season. The Cougars have allowed just two TDs all season and limited opponents to 48% passing. BYU could take this one over with their defense.

Wyoming wins if…they can get something going on offense. The Cowboys have averaged just 3.2 yards per play in their first two games. Against Idaho, UW was only able to go for 3.9 per play. The offense needs to start producing.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: BYU
Points total: Under
Outright winner: BYU

Best Bets

No. 12 Utah at Utah State

Saturday, Sept. 14
1:30 pm PT, CBS Sports

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Utah –20.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

The Aggies offense looked good against Robert Morris but got nothing going against USC.

The Utah defense is better than that of the Trojans. Even without Rising, the offense should generate enough points to make this one an easy win for the Utes. Take Utah and the under.

Utah wins if…the defense takes over. The Utes offense may have some questions surrounding Rising, but the defense does not. Utah is allowing just 2.7 yards per carry this season. The defense has a chance to take this one over in Logan.

Utah State wins if…they can stop the running game. Last week the Aggies were torched by the USC rushing attack. They’ll get plenty of chances to improve against the run this week—if they don’t, they’ll get torched on the ground once again.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Utah
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Utah

New Mexico State at Fresno State

Saturday, Sept. 14
7:30 pm PT, truTV

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Fresno State –19.5
Over/Under Point Total: 48.5

I don’t expect this rematch of last season’s New Mexico Bowl, a game the Bulldogs won 37-10, to be much different.

Fresno State looked good in their loss at Michigan and took care of Sacramento State as expected.

NMSU had a tight one with SE Missouri before hanging tight with Liberty.

The three-TD margin is a lot in this one, but I still like Fresno State to cover that. The Bulldogs are that good.

New Mexico State wins if…they can contain Mikey Keene and the Bulldog passing attack. The Aggies have given up a lot of passing yards this season and that includes 256 to a Liberty team that predominately runs the ball!

This will be the best passing offense NMSU has faced, and they need to be ready to stop it.

Fresno State wins if…they can run the ball. Mikey Keene is going to cook in this one, but the running attack needs to be prevalent to make it easier.

The ground game got stifled in Ann Arbor and was better in week 2. The Bulldogs will need to get Malik Sherrod going at some point and this could be that time.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Fresno State

Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks

2024 Week 3 MW + Pac-2 Games	Straight-Up Picks
UNLV at Kansas Sept 13, 4:00 pm PT	UNLV
Nevada at Minnesota Sept 14, 12:30 pm PT	Minnesota
No. 9 Oregon at Oregon St Sept 14, 12:30 pm PT	Oregon
Washington at WSU Sept 14, 12:30 pm PT	Washington
No. 12 Utah at Utah St Sept 14, 1:30 pm PT	Utah
New Mexico at Auburn Sept 14, 4:30 pm PT	Auburn
Air Force at Baylor Sept 14, 4:30 pm PT	Baylor
Colorado at Colorado St Sept 14, 4:30 pm PT	Colorado
BYU at Wyoming Sept 14, 6:00 pm PT	BYU
New Mexico at Fresno St Sept 14, 7:30 pm PT	Fresno St
Vilardo’s Overall MW + Pac-12 Record	20-2 (91%)

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US)
Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY)
Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA)

21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. First Bet Offer up to $1500*. *Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.