Top Games

Arizona State at Texas State

Thursday, Sept. 12
4:30 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Arizona State -1.5

What’s at Stake: The Sun Devils are off to a surprising 2-0 start but face a challenge at Texas State.

The Sun Belt opponent was picked to finish first in the West Division and finished last season with an 8-5 record including a victory in the First Responder Bowl.

A defeat would dampen the momentum ASU has built so far this season.

Why Arizona State Wins: The offensive line provides the time needed for Sam Leavitt to make the right throws and the defense forces at least one turnover.

Why Texas State Wins: Quarterback Jordan McCloud has an efficient day through the air while scampering for yards when needed.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: ASU
Straight Up: ASU

No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State

Friday, Sept. 13
5:00 pm PT, Fox

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Kansas State -7

What’s at Stake: The reputation of the former Pac-12 is on the line when Arizona heads to Kansas State.

The league may have dissolved, but its former members have been showing out, going 20-2 so far this season.

A victory by Arizona would only reinforce the narrative that the best ball is played out West.

Why Arizona Wins: The offensive line maintains their blocks long enough for Dino Babers’ run plays to be effective.

On the other side of the ball, the Wildcat defense keeps Avery Johnson from scrambling for yards and gashing them on the ground.

Why Kansas State Wins: The KSU defense pressures Noah Fifita to force poor throws and sacks.

On offense, Johnson makes plays when the pocket collapses and DJ Giddens breaks tackles to get into open space.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Kansas State
Straight Up: Kansas State

North Texas at Texas Tech

Saturday, Sept. 14
9:00 am PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Texas Tech -9.5

What’s at Stake: The Red Raiders have fallen short of expectations to start the year.

The team’s poor perception would only worsen if they struggle with North Texas.

The Mean Green are 2-0 to start the year and view this matchup as one of their biggest games of the year.

Why North Texas Wins: The Mean Green meet or exceed their 4.3 yards per rush and quarterback Chandler Morris doesn’t turn the ball over.

Why Texas Tech Wins: The Red Raider defensive line establishes themselves on the first possession of the game while quarterback Behren Morton exceeds his 64.0 completion percentage.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: North Texas
Straight Up: Texas Tech

No. 13 Oklahoma State at Tulsa

Saturday, Sept. 14
9:00 am PT, ESPN2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oklahoma State -19.5

What’s at Stake: The Cowboys face in-state opponent Tulsa to close out their nonconference season.

Ollie Gordon is only averaging 3.9 yards per rush and quarterback Alan Bowman has looked questionable at times.

An old-fashioned thumping of Tulsa would be an ideal transition to next week’s matchup with Utah.

Why Oklahoma State Wins: Gordon has a productive day running the ball, which has a snowball effect on the rest of the offense.

The results are balanced play-calling to keep Tulsa on the back foot and successful downfield throws.

Why Tulsa Wins: Quarterback Kirk Francis and his offensive line handle the Oklahoma State pressure while running back Lloyd Avant consistently gets first downs on the ground.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Oklahoma State
Straight Up: Oklahoma State

West Virginia at Pitt

Saturday, Sept. 14
12:30 pm PT, ESPN2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: West Virginia -2

What’s at Stake: In a landscape with precious few at-large bids to the Playoff, games against Power Conference opponents matter.

The Big 12 is 2-1 against the ACC so far this season, which could boost the league’s chances of getting multiple teams into the postseason if that trend continues.

Some consider West Virginia a dark horse in the Big 12—and it’s a rivalry game. The stakes are high.

Why West Virginia Wins: The Mountaineers establish their run game and bust chunk plays on the ground throughout the day.

Why Pitt Wins: The Panthers take care of the ball and running back Desmond Reid has a strong game.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: West Virginia
Straight Up: West Virginia

No. 12 Utah at Utah State

Saturday, Sept. 14
1:30 pm PT, CBS Sports Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Utah -20.5

What’s at Stake: Cam Rising’s status is in question along with the remainder of Utah’s season.

Backup quarterback Isaac Wilson was not effective against Baylor and doesn’t appear to be ready to play.

The entire trajectory of the season rests on Rising’s health status.

Why Utah Wins: The Ute defense wins first and second down throughout the day, forcing the Utah State offense into Third-and-Long situations.

Why Utah State Wins: Former Utah quarterback Bryson Barnes uses his legs to extend plays, get first downs, and open up the traditional run game.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Utah State
Straight Up: Utah

UCF at TCU

Saturday, Sept. 14
4:30 pm PT, Fox

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UCF -2.5

What’s at Stake: Central Florida has its first true test of the season when it heads to Fort Worth for the Big 12 opener.

TCU struggled against its only Power Conference opponent that it played and could stumble at home.

The Knights are a growing powerhouse in the Big 12 and could reinforce that perception with a win against the Horned Frogs.

Why UCF Wins: KJ Jefferson uses his mobility to keep plays alive while scrambling for yardage when needed.

Why TCU Wins: The Horned Frogs limit their penalties and quarterback Josh Hoover connects on his intermediate and downfield throws.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: UCF
Straight Up: UCF

Colorado at Colorado State

Saturday, Sept. 14
4:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado -7

What’s at Stake: Colorado’s offensive line was exposed against Nebraska.

The Buffs dealt with the same issues last year and could struggle the rest of the season.

Colorado State almost beat CU in 2023 and probably views this matchup as the most important game of the season.

Why Colorado Wins: Shedeur Sanders has enough time to get the ball into the hands of his speedy receivers, who then rack up significant yards after catch.

Why Colorado State Wins: The Rams’ defensive line wins the line of scrimmage, preventing Colorado from establishing a run game and getting sacks on Sanders.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Colorado State
Straight Up: Colorado

BYU at Wyoming

Saturday, Sept. 14
6:00 pm PT, CBS Sports Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: BYU -11.5

What’s at Stake: Kalani Sitake has BYU positioned to take a step forward in their second year in the Big 12.

The Cougars already secured a pivotal road win over SMU and now head to Wyoming for another showdown.

The Cowboys shouldn’t be overlooked on their home field, even after losing to FCS Idaho last week.

Why BYU Wins: The Cougars establish their ground game in the first half by using multiple running backs while quarterback Jake Retzlaff picks and chooses his throws.

Why Wyoming Wins: The Cowboy offense breaks out of its funk starting with a strong day through the air.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Wyoming
Straight Up: BYU

Best Bet

UNLV at Kansas

Friday, Sept. 13
4:00 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Kansas -7.5

What’s at Stake: UNLV already has a road win against a Big 12 opponent and comes to Lawrence expecting to win.

The Jayhawks just lost to Illinois and are officially on Upset Alert.

A victory by the Rebels would potentially put them in the Playoff discussion.

Why Kansas Wins: Devin Neal is fed the ball early in the game and Jalon Daniels doesn’t throw an interception.

The Kansas defense stays disciplined and keeps up with the speed of UNLV’s receivers.

Why UNLV Wins: Brennan Marion’s offensive scheme keeps the Jayhawk defense guessing with its variable formations, pre-snap movement, and post-snap eye candy.

The results are chunk plays through the air and on the ground due to the KU defenders being out of position and unable to compensate against the speedy UNLV skill players.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: UNLV
Straight Up: UNLV

Dane Miller’s Big 12 Game Picks

2024 Week 3 Big 12 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Arizona State at Texas State Sept 12, 4:30 pm PT	Arizona State
No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State Sept 13, 5:00 pm PT	Kansas State
North Texas at Texas Tech Sept 14, 9:00 am PT	Texas Tech
No. 13 Oklahoma State at Tulsa Sept 14, 9:00 am PT	Oklahoma State
West Virginia at Pitt Sept 14, 12:30 pm PT	West Virginia
No. 12 Utah at Utah State Sept 14, 1:30 pm PT	Utah
UNLV at Kansas Sept 14, 4:00 pm PT	UNLV
UCF at TCU Sept 14, 4:30 pm PT	UCF
Colorado at Colorado State Sept 14, 4:30 pm PT	Colorado
BYU at Wyoming Sept 14, 6:00 pm PT	BYU
Miller’s Overall Big 12 Record	14-6 (70%)

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