Oregon State at No. 12 Boise State

Friday, November 29
9:00 am PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boise State –20
Over/Under Point Total: 56.5

This one is a showcase game on FOX for Boise State, even with the 10 am MT kickoff.

The Beavers look to get bowl-eligible. The Broncos know they are two wins away from a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Oregon State wins if…They can stay on schedule and keep third downs manageable. OSU is 23rd in the nation in third-down conversions and will need to stay ahead of the chains.

Boise State wins if…It runs the football. The Beavers rank 103rd in the nation against the run and in their losses, they have allowed 60 more yards per game on the ground than in their wins. Ashton Jeanty in front of a national audience could cook!

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State

Utah State at Colorado State

Friday, November 29
12:30 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado State –6
Over/Under Point Total: 58.5

Colorado State is looking to secure win No. 8 on the season.

The Rams’ loss to Fresno State last week certainly muddled their path to the MW Championship game, but they can still get there with a win and some help.

The Aggies want to avoid an eight-loss season. USU could end the tumultuous 2024 season on a high note with a three-game winning streak.

Utah State wins if…they can slow down the explosive runs. The Aggies have allowed the eighth most runs of 20+ yards this season. CSU has the 16th most such runs this season.

Colorado State wins if…they win the middle of the field. USU has a potent offense, but CSU has allowed just 27 red zone trips all season, ninth best in the nation. The MW’s best-scoring defense can keep the Aggies at bay if they limit the scoring chances.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Colorado State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Colorado State

Stanford at San Jose State

Friday, November 29
1:00 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: San Jose State –3
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5

Stanford has performed much better the last two weeks with a close loss at Cal following the upset win over Louisville.

San Jose State is going bowling but would like to end the regular season on a high note after falling each of the last two weeks to the MW’s top two teams.

Stanford wins if…they can slow down the Spartans passing attack. Stanford is allowing 271.1 yards through the air per game. SJSU is sixth in the nation throwing for 319.8 per game.

San Jose State wins if…they can take the ball away! The Spartans have forced 24 turnovers, the fifth most in the nation. Stanford has given it away 19 times, ranking 104th.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: San Jose State

Fresno State at UCLA

Saturday, November 30
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UCLA -9.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

The Bruins sputtered through the first six games of the DeShaun Foster era but have taken off the last half of the season. While it will not end in a bowl game, the progress is promising.

The Bulldogs snapped a two-game slide with a win to get bowl-eligible last week.

Both teams will want to end the regular season on a positive note to carry into 2025.

Fresno State wins if…they can stay efficient on offense. The teams are fairly evenly matched, but the Bulldogs offense has been able to create more scoring chances.

UCLA wins if…they can run the football. The Bruins will need to create some kind of ground attack against the Bulldogs to keep the offense clicking. Fresno State has allowed 193 per game on the ground in their losses compared to 101 in their wins.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: UCLA

Wyoming at Washington State

Saturday, November 30
3:30 pm PT, The CW

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington State –17
Over/Under Point Total: 58.5

The Cougars have dropped their last two contests. Wyoming had a close four-point loss to Boise State.

The Cowboys have improved as the season has gone on.

Washington State looks to right itself heading into bowl season.

Wyoming wins if…the offense can get going. The Cowboys’ offense has not been good this season, but the Cougars defense is not good either. If the Pokes are ever to produce offensively, this would be one they could.

Washington State wins if…they throw the football. John Mateer could have a field day against the Wyoming passing defense.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Washington State

Nevada at No. 24 UNLV

Saturday, November 30
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UNLV –17.5
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5

In all likelihood, a win for UNLV sends them to the Conference Championship game and a shot at a playoff spot.

For Nevada, this is a chance to wreck their archrival’s season and end a current five-game skid.

The Battle for the Fremont Cannon has a little extra spice to it this season.

Nevada wins if…Brendon Lewis can take care of the football. The Rebels will give up yards through the air, but they’ll also force errors.

UNLV wins if…they dominate the run game. Nevada has gotten torched on the ground this season. UNLV is one of the best in the nation at moving on the ground.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: UNLV
Points total: Under
Outright winner: UNLV

New Mexico at Hawai’i

Saturday, November 30
8:00 pm PT, Spectrum

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: New Mexico –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 61.5

New Mexico needs a win to become bowl-eligible. Capping off Year One of the Bronco Mendenhall era with a bowl trip would be a huge stepping stone for the program.

Hawai’i is looking to close the season out its season with wins in three of their last five games. Under Timmy Chang, the Warriors are 0-4 following a bye week.

New Mexico wins if…Devon Dampier can take over. The QB has been stellar the last two games making plays with his arm and his legs. This seems like a game he might be able to take over.

Hawai’i wins if…they can get some production from the ground game. UH has been much more successful this season when they have been able to produce some on the ground.

It does not have to be a ton. In games UH has run for 80+ yards their average margin is +5 per game; in games they have failed to reach 80 yards on the ground the margin is –21.8 per game.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points total: Over
Outright winner: New Mexico

Best Bet

Air Force at San Diego State

Saturday, November 30
7:30 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Air Force –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 43.5

It has been a disappointing season for both schools, but a much more unexpected one for the Falcons.

Air Force is starting to play better as the season has progressed and the ground game has gotten going. The Falcons enter riding a three-game win streak.

SDSU is limping to the finish with a five-game losing streak.

I don’t see the Aztecs slowing down the run in this one. Take the Falcons and the under!

Air Force wins if…they run the football. During the three-game win streak, the Falcons are averaging 310.7 yards per game on the ground. The Aztecs are 119th against the run.

San Diego State wins if…the defense can get some stops. In the last four games, SDSU has allowed 6.96 yards per play. They need to tighten things up in this one.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Air Force
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Air Force

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Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks

2024 Week 14 MW + Pac-2 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Oregon State at No. 12 Boise State Nov 29, 9:00 am PT	Boise State
Utah State at Colorado State Nov 29, 12:30 pm PT	Colorado State
Stanford at San Jose State Nov 29, 1:00 pm PT	San Jose State
Fresno State at UCLA Nov 30, 12:30 pm PT	UCLA
Wyoming at Washington State Nov 30, 3:30 pm PT	WSU
Nevada at No. 24 UNLV Nov 30, 5:00 pm PT	UNLV
Air Force at San Diego State Nov 30, 7:30 pm PT	Air Force
New Mexico at Hawai’i Nov 30, 8:00 pm PT	New Mexico
Vilardo’s Overall MW + Pac-12 Record	75-20 (79%)

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