Minnesota at Wisconsin

Friday, November 28
9:00 am PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Wisconsin –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 43.5

Wisconsin has claimed the Axe in 17 of the last 20 meetings.

Minnesota would like nothing more than to take it back to Minneapolis and end the Badgers’ consecutive bowl game streak at 22.

Minnesota wins if…Darius Taylor can find room to run the ball. He’s averaging less than 40 yards per game in losses and has gone over 60 yards in all but one win.

Wisconsin wins if…they can get the passing game going. It is going to be cold and windy; the Badgers will want to get the air attack going, but how effective can they be?

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Minnesota
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Minnesota

Nebraska at Iowa

Friday, November 29
4:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa –5.5
Over/Under Point Total: 39.5

Now they will look to knock off Iowa in the Heroes Game.

Iowa has won eight of the last nine in the series and are 20-3 in the month of November since 2019.

Nebraska wins if…the good Dylan Raiola shows up. The freshman played better last week but in the latter half of the season he has thrown eight interceptions compared to three in the first six games.

Iowa wins if…they run the ball. Nebraska is good against the run, the Hawkeyes have gone for 200-plus on the ground eight times this season. If Iowa can run it, they will win this game.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Iowa
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa

No. 23 Illinois at Northwestern

Saturday, November 30
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Illinois –7.5
Over/Under Point Total: 43.5

This one seems to point the direction of the Illini.

Illinois wins if…Luke Altmyer can pick apart the defense. Northwestern gave up almost 200 yards passing to Michigan last week. The Illini QB should be able to shred the Cats.

Northwestern wins if…Jack Lausch can make plays out of the pocket. The Illini front will bring the heat. The Wildcat QB will need to create time for himself.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Illinois
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Illinois

Maryland at No. 4 Penn State

Saturday, November 30
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State –24.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

The Terps have lost four in a row, having been outscored 147-71 in the process. Now they head to Happy Valley with a backup QB and a Nittany Lion team poised to remain in the hunt for a home Playoff game.

How much motivation will there be for the Terps in this one?

Maryland wins if…the dual threat of MJ Morris can catch the Nittany Lions off guard. Morris might not be the passer Bill Edwards is, but he offers something in the run game the Terps have not had.

At 4-7 and a bowl out of the question, the unknown and his ability to make plays could be big.

Penn State wins if…Drew Allar has a big day. Actually, PSU should be fine in this one, but Allar could have a huge day throwing the ball against this Maryland defense.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Penn State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Penn State

Rutgers at Michigan State

Saturday, November 30
12:30 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan State –2
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5

Rutgers is already bowl-eligible but coming off a brutal loss to Illinois as they let one get away in the closing seconds.

Rutgers wins if…. they run the football. The Knights are going for almost 200 yards on the ground in their six wins compared to 143 in their five losses.

That figure includes the 213 last week in which they basically had the win, if not for a late coaching blunder. So, add that 213 to seven wins and it is even more evident of the need to run the ball.

Michigan Stat wins if…they can put together four complete quarters. The Spartans let one get away in the second half against Illinois and just about did the same thing last week against Purdue.

The Spartans have been outscored 150-76 after halftime this season. Finish this game and they go bowling—but sadly for Sparty, they won’t, and they turn it over too much.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Rutgers
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Rutgers

Fresno State at UCLA

Saturday, November 30
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UCLA -9.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

While it will not end in a bowl game, the progress is promising.

The Bulldogs snapped a two-game slide with a win to get bowl-eligible last week.

Both teams will want to end the regular season on a positive note to carry into 2025.

Fresno State wins if…they can stay efficient on offense. The teams are fairly evenly matched, but the Bulldogs offense has been able to create more scoring chances.

UCLA wins if…they can run the football. The Bruins will need to create some kind of ground attack against the Bulldogs to keep the offense clicking. Fresno State has allowed 193 per game on the ground in their losses compared to 101 in their wins.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: UCLA

Washington at No. 1 Oregon

Saturday, November 30
4:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon –19.5
Over/Under Point Total: 51.5

A Washington win may not fully spoil the Ducks’ season, but it would certainly put a damper on it.

This one means a ton to both teams and Oregon has some lingering bad taste in their mouths from the last couple of meetings.

The last three meetings have been three-point wins for the Huskies.

Washington wins if…they can move this one to Husky Stadium. The Huskies are 6-0 at home and 0-5 away their home digs. In UW’s four true road games, only one has been within 14 points.

They’ll also need a big game out of Will Rogers or Demond Williams—whoever ends up starting.

Oregon wins if…the offense can get a good bounce back after being limited to just 16 points last time out. Washington has a stiff defense and will be a test for the Ducks but UW is allowing 30.2 points per game on the road compared to just 12.3 at home.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon

Best Bets

Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State

Saturday, November 30
9:00 am PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State –21
Over/Under Point Total: 43.5

And that gap is the difference. OSU may have difficulty moving the ball, but they might pitch the shutout, or close to it.

Michigan has an outstanding defense, and the total should stay under. The Wolverines simply will not score enough to threaten the total or the Buckeye’s chance at playing in the Big Ten Championship game.

Michigan wins if…Davis Warren can duplicate last week’s performance against an elite defense. He threw for 196 against Northwestern. If that can be matched, Michigan will be in good shape.

Ohio State wins if…the offensive line can hold up against the Michigan front. OSU’s line is patchwork at the moment. The Buckeyes will need to get protection and a push in short yardage against a good Michigan defensive line.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Ohio State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State

No. 5 Notre Dame at USC

Saturday, November 30
12:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Notre Dame –7.5
Over/Under Point Total: 51.5

USC had to sweat things out until game 11 before becoming bowl-eligible. The Trojans offense is sputtering, averaging just 22.7 points in the last three games.

This seems like a slam dunk for the Irish?

USC still has a ton of talent, and this feels a little like one that the Trojans could sneak up and ruin things for their rivals. I think the Irish win, but it stays tight and low-scoring.

Notre Dame wins if…Riley Leonard can step up. The QB has been playing better as the season has progressed, but the competition has not been great.

ND has only faced two Power Four opponents with a winning record during their winning streak. Leonard will need to be good in this one.

USC wins if…the offense can get more out of their red zone trips. Last week USC ended up with four FGs and just one TD in five RZ trips. On the season the Trojans have only gotten a TD on 66% of trips to the scoring zone.

They can’t afford to leave points on the board in this one.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: USC
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Notre Dame

Purdue at No. 10 Indiana

Saturday, November 30
4:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Indiana –28.5
Over/Under Point Total: 56.5

The battle for the Old Oaken Bucket seems to have that and then some.

Purdue has lost 10 in a row and the lone win was over FCS Indiana State.

Indiana is 10-1 and a win away from punching a ticket to the CFB Playoff.

The Boilermakers have a chance to be major spoilers—but how much of a chance? Indiana might get 50 on their own in this one.

Purdue wins if…Hudson Card completes passes. The QB completed 85% in their win, in three of their most competitive games he was at 66%.  He is at 49% for the rest of the season.

Indiana wins if…the defensive line takes over. Purdue has not been able to run the ball this season and they are giving up almost seven tackles for loss per game. Indiana has a legit front seven.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Indiana

Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks

2024 Week 14 Big 10 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Minnesota at Wisconsin Nov 29, 9:00 am PT	Minnesota
Nebraska at Iowa Nov 29, 4:30 pm PT	Iowa
Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State Nov 30, 9:00 am PT	Ohio State
No. 23 Illinois at Northwestern Nov 30, 9:00 am PT	Illinois
Maryland at No. 4 Penn State Nov 30, 12:30 pm PT	Penn State
No. 5 Notre Dame at USC Nov 30, 12:30 pm PT	Notre Dame
Rutgers at Michigan State Nov 30, 12:30 pm PT	Rutgers
Fresno State at UCLA Nov 30, 12:30 pm PT	UCLA
Purdue at No. 10 Indiana Nov 30, 4:00 pm PT	Indiana
Washington at No. 1 Oregon Nov 30, 4:30 pm PT	Oregon
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record	80-28 (74%)

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