Oklahoma State at No. 25 Colorado

Friday, November 29
9:00 am PT, ABC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado -16.5

What’s at Stake: Colorado must win to keep its Big 12 Championship hopes alive.

Oklahoma State could play spoiler with a win. But OSU’s season has been horrible. The Cowboys are winless in Conference play and have lost eight straight games.

Beating CU on their home field is highly unlikely. A large margin of victory would help bolster the Buffaloes’ Playoff resume.

Why Oklahoma State Wins: The Pokes establish a consistent ground game with Ollie Gordon and the defense gets multiple sacks on Shedeur Sanders while limiting the Buff’s running backs.

Why Colorado Wins: Sanders carves up Oklahoma State’s weak secondary with his elite receiving corps.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Colorado
Straight Up: Colorado

Utah at UCF

Friday, November 29
5:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UCF -9.5

What’s at Stake: Utah faces a Litmus Test at the end of its first season in the Big 12.

The Utes are facing another 4-7 team that’s a newcomer to the league. UCF has underperformed expectations this year but otherwise has recruited well since making the jump to a Power Conference.

This game has more meaning than some may think. A Utah loss would show how far down the program ranks in the new Big 12.

Why Utah Wins: The defense holds RJ Harvey below his average of 132.5 rushing yards per game, the offense doesn’t turn the ball over, and the offensive line wins the physicality battle to establish the run.

Why UCF Wins: Dylan Rizk has an efficient passing day, Harvey moves the chains on the ground, and the defense prevents explosive run plays.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Utah
Straight Up: UCF

Kansas at Baylor

Saturday, November 30
9:00 am PT, ESPN2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Kansas -1.5

What’s at Stake: Kansas has three straight wins over ranked opponents and enters the game with bowl eligibility on the line.

The Jayhawks’ season has been nowhere near expectations. But the team has got it together at the end of the year.

Baylor has been strong, though, ever since Sawyer Robertson took over the starting quarterback role a few games into the season.

Why Kansas Wins: The defense contains Robertson on the ground, limits explosive RPO plays, and creates turnovers.

Why Baylor Wins: Robertson’s threat to run opens up space for the running backs to exploit and helps create separation for the Baylor receivers to get open. On defense, the Bears sell out to defend the run and force Kansas to beat them through the air.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Baylor
Straight Up: Baylor

West Virginia at Texas Tech

Saturday, November 30
9:00 am PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Texas Tech -3

What’s at Stake: Both teams are already bowl eligible and each is eliminated from the Big 12 Championship Game.

Still, it’s a regular-season conference matchup and the circumstances are mostly irrelevant.

Texas Tech can finish the year out strong with a victory in Lubbock.

Why West Virginia Wins: The offense creates explosive plays through the air and ground out of RPO sets. The defense comes up with short-yardage run stops on pivotal third-down plays.

Why Texas Tech Wins: The run game is established on offense, the defense wins the turnover margin, and the defensive line matches WVU’s physicality.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: West Virginia
Straight Up: West Virginia

No. 16 Arizona State at Arizona

Saturday, November 30
12:30 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Arizona State -9

What’s at Stake: This year’s Duel in the Desert is one of the most historic in the rivalry’s history.

Arizona State can make the Big 12 Championship Game if it wins the Territorial Cup. It’s the most impactful game since 2014, when the Wildcats beat ASU to make the Pac-12 Championship Game.

But with the expanded Playoff this season, the stakes are even higher than in 2015.

Why Arizona State Wins: Cam Skattebo breaks tackles all game to move the ball on the ground, Sam Leavitt is accurate when he throws and scampers for key yardage on the ground, and the defensive line regularly creates negative plays.

Why Arizona Wins: Noah Fifita displays a willingness to run that is consistent enough to force ASU’s defense to adjust, the running backs exceed their averages on the ground, and the secondary forces multiple interceptions.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Arizona State
Straight Up: Arizona State

TCU at Cincinnati

Saturday, November 30
3:00 pm PT, ESPN+

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: TCU -3.5

What’s at Stake: It all comes down to this. Cincinnati has five wins and must beat TCU to reach a bowl game.

The Bearcats started the season off strong but have lost all momentum to close the year.

Still, it’s a home game at night to close the year with everything to play for.

Why TCU Wins: The defensive line gets sacks on Brendan Sorsby, Josh Hoover doesn’t turn the ball over, and the offensive line gets the push required to establish a reasonable ground game.

Why Cincinnati Wins: Sorsby and Corey Kiner combine to create an offense that puts up points. The special teams makes a pivotal play. And the team as a whole takes advantage of TCU’s mistakes and lack of discipline.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Cincinnati
Straight Up: Cincinnati

No. 24 Kansas State at No. 18 Iowa State

Saturday, November 30
4:30 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa State -2.5

What’s at Stake: Farmageddon is probably the least well-known rivalry in college football.

Kansas State and Iowa State have played each other every year since 1917. This season’s game carries extra meaning with the Cyclones fighting for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

A Kansas State win would prevent ISU from having a shot at the Playoff.

Why Kansas State Wins: Avery Johnson is smart with his decision-making, accurate with his throws, and effective when running. The secondary prevents the Cyclone wide receivers from creating explosive plays through the air.

Why Iowa State Wins: The defensive line gets pressure on Johnson to disrupt the timing of throws, stifle the run game, and speed up the entire KSU offense. On offense, the run game converts short-yardage plays for first downs.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Kansas State
Straight Up: Kansas State

Best Bet

Houston at No. 19 BYU

Saturday, November 30
7:15 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: BYU -12.5

What’s at Stake: BYU must win to keep its Playoff chances alive. That’s all Kalani Sitake and his players can focus on.

Houston is not a very good football team and is already making changes to its staff.

Combined with the altitude adjustment, there’s potential for this game to get ugly.

Why Houston Wins: The defensive line matches the physicality of BYU’s offensive line. On offense, the run plays consistently get positive yards and third-and-long situations are avoided.

Why BYU Wins: The lines on both sides of the ball are physically superior resulting in a defense that limits Houston’s ability to score and an offense that puts up points.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: BYU
Straight Up: BYU

Dane Miller’s Big 12 Game Picks

2024 Week 14 Big 12 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Oklahoma State at No. 25 Colorado Nov 29,  9:00 am PT	Colorado
Utah at UCF Nov 29, 5:00 pm PT	UCF
Kansas at Baylor Nov 30,  9:00 am PT	Baylor
West Virginia at Texas Tech Nov 30,  9:00 am PT	West Virginia
No 16 ASU at Arizona Nov 30, 12:30 pm PT	ASU
TCU at Cincinnati Nov 30, 3:00 pm PT	Cincinnati
No. 24 Kansas St at No. 18 Iowa St Nov 30, 4:30 pm PT	Kansas State
Houston at No. 19 BYU Nov 30, 7:15 pm PT	BYU
Miller’s Overall Big 12 Record	65-32 (67%)

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