No. 24 UNLV at San Jose State

Friday, November 22
7:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UNLV –7.5
Over/Under Point Total: 62.5

UNLV looks to keep their MW title hopes alive but a stumble in the Valley would cook them.

The Rebels carry the third-longest road-winning streak in the nation into this one but have not won in San Jose since 1993.

UNLV wins if…they start fast. The Rebels are 16-1 under Barry Odom when leading after the third quarter and 6-0 this season when scoring first. Get a lead and let the defense do its thing.

San Jose State wins if…throw the ball efficiently. The Rebels give up a ton of yardage through the air, ranking 120th in the nation but are fourth in the nation with 16 interceptions. The Spartans will need to throw the ball but not give it away.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: UNLV
Points total: Under
Outright winner: UNLV

Washington State at Oregon State

Saturday, November 23
4:00 pm PT, The CW

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington State –12.5
Over/Under Point Total: 56.5

The Cougars are coming off a loss but have been far better than I expected them to be this season.

The Beavers have lost five in a row and have underperformed all season long. In the last three games, OSU has been outscored 101-20.

Washington State wins if…John Mateer can shine. Mateer is the only QB in the nation with 20+ passing TDs and 10+ rushing TDs. Last week Air Force out-physicaled OSU. The Cougs could do the same and hit them with the pass as well.

Oregon State wins if…they run the ball. The Beavers are running it for 198.4 per game and the Cougars are having a hard time stopping the run. Take the air out of the ball and shorten this game and the Beavs have a shot.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Washington State

No. 12 Boise State at Wyoming

Saturday, November 23
4:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boise  State –23.5
Over/Under Point Total: 57.5

This is the conference finale for both these teams as each plays a Pac-12 opponent next week.

For the Broncos, it is a chance to wrap up an unblemished MW season.

For the Cowboys, it’s a chance to earn a signature win in a disappointing season.

Boise State wins if…they dominate the line of scrimmage….and they will. The Broncos have a huge advantage on the line on both sides of the ball.

Offensively the Broncos should be able to do whatever they want. Defensively they could spend a lot of time in the Cowboy backfield.

Wyoming wins if…they can run the ball. Wyoming needs to be able to shorten the game and stay on schedule. BSU is stout against the run, ranking 14th in the nation. If Wyoming can’t run it, it will be a long day.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Boise State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Boise State

Air Force at Nevada

Saturday, November 23
7:30 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Nevada –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 44.5

The Falcons have finally got their running game going the last two weeks, rushing for 307 per game in those wins.

Nevada has not been great against the run.

The Wolf Pack are coming off a tough loss at Boise State in which they gave the Broncos as good a game as anyone in the nation but still allowed 247 on the ground.

Air Force wins if…the defense continues to come up big. Air Force has allowed just 14 points per game in the last two games after allowing 26.5 in the first eight games of the season.

Nevada wins if…they don’t commit penalties. The flags have plagued Nevada all season as they are 127th in the nation with 74.6 yards in penalties per game and their eight penalties per game rank 122nd nationally.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Air Force
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Air Force

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San Diego State at Utah State

Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, CBS Sports

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Utah State –4.5
Over/Under Point Total: 61.5

The Aztecs are slogging through a four-game losing streak.

Give me the Aggies -4.5 all day.

San Diego State wins if…they can get pressure on Spencer Petras. If Trey White and the Aztecs can pick up sacks and get the Aggies in long-yardage situations, advantage SDSU. If not, the Aggies could pick them apart through the air.

Utah State wins if…the offense can dominate. The Aztecs will not be able to keep up with Utah State on the scoreboard if the Aggies get rolling.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Utah State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Utah State

Colorado State at Fresno State

Saturday, November 23
7:30 pm PT, CBS Sports

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Fresno State –3
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

Fresno State has lost their last four November games as a favorite and has not covered a November game since 2022.

Something’s got to give in this one.

And I see it giving in the direction of CSU—especially getting points.

Colorado State wins if…they control the ball on the ground. CSU is 32nd in the nation, averaging 187.6 yards per game rushing. Fresno State got torched by Air Force on the ground last time out.

Fresno State wins if…they throw the ball effectively. The Rams have given up yardage through the air and Mikey Keene should find success throwing it but can’t turn it over. Nine of the Bulldogs’ 13 interceptions thrown have come in losses.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Colorado State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Colorado State

Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks

2024 Week 13 MW + Pac-2 Games	Straight-Up Picks
No. 24 UNLV at San Jose State Nov 22, 7:00 pm PT	UNLV
San Diego State at Utah State Nov 23, 12:30 pm PT	Utah State
Washington State at Oregon State Nov 23, 4:00 pm PT	Washington State
No. 12 Boise State at Wyoming Nov 23, 4:00 pm PT	Boise State
Air Force at Nevada Nov 23, 7:30 pm PT	Air Force
Colorado State at Fresno State Nov 23, 7:30 pm PT	Colorado State
Vilardo’s Overall MW + Pac-12 Record	71-18 (80%)

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