By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
November 21, 2024
Oregon has locked up one spot in Indianapolis the first weekend in December.
The right to face the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship game is most likely on the line in Columbus this week.
We also have trophies on the line in Ann Arbor, Lincoln, and Los Angeles.
We will not see any more regular-season long-distance travelers for conference games. Last week Oregon eked out a win in Madison while Nebraska fell to USC in the Coliseum.
Those results brought the league to 8-18 when traveling two+ time zones for a conference game this season.
I went 5-2 last week, bringing my overall conference record to 73-27 (73%).
Here is a look at week thirteen in the Big Ten and how I think the week will play out.
Purdue at Michigan State
Friday, November 22
5:00 pm PT, FOX
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan State –13.5
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5
The Spartans can still get to a bowl game with a win in this one, and another win at home over Rutgers next week.
While this may not be the “appointment viewing” FOX was looking for it, still carries some meaning.
Purdue wins if…Hudson Card can complete passes. The QB has only completed 59% of his passes this season and has topped 200+ yards against only one FBS opponent. The Spartans’ secondary is bad. Purdue needs a big game from Card.
Michigan State wins if… the good Aidan Chiles shows up. Chiles has tons of upside, but this season, he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. MSU needs him to take care of the ball. Turnovers could be the Boilers’ only hope.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Michigan State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan State
No. 25 Illinois at Rutgers
Saturday, November 23
9:00 AM PT Peacock
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Illinois +1.5
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5
They fell to Minnesota in that one, can they pull off the upset at Rutgers this time?
The Knights are getting right again having won two in a row following a four-game slide.
Illinois wins if…they throw the football. Rutgers has been beat up by the pass this season and Luke Altmyer has quietly put together a very nice season with 18 TDs to just three interceptions—all coming against Penn State and Oregon.
Rutgers wins if…they run the football. The Knights are averaging 201.7 yards per game in their six wins and just 121 in their four losses. The Illini are allowing 205 in their three losses compared to 122 in their seven wins.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Illinois
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Illinois
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State
Saturday, November 23
9:00 am PT, FOX
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State –12.5
Over/Under Point Total: 52.5
The fact that Indiana is in this position is a bit mind-boggling. Getting a win in the Horseshoe would be even more so.
Ohio State has won 28 in a row over the Hoosiers. IU has two wins over OSU since 1951. They occurred in 1987 and ’88.
How lopsided is this series all-time? In 97 meetings Indiana has 12 wins.
Indiana wins if…the offensive line can hold up. The Hoosiers line struggled in the second half against Michigan. The OSU front will be even more of a challenge. If they give Kurtis Rourke time he’ll be able to hit receivers.
Ohio State wins if…they can hit a big play with Jeremiah Smith and the freshman’s availability. This Indiana defense is good and very good against the run. As good as OSU is running the ball the big plays may not be there.
If the Buckeyes can chip away, and they will, it will open something up for the talented freshman on the outside should his ankle allow it.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State
Iowa at Maryland
Saturday, November 23
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa –6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5
The Hawkeyes are 19-3 in their last 22 games in the 11th month of the season.
To go bowling the Terps will need to win this one and get a road win at Penn State.
Iowa wins if…Jay Higgins clogs the middle and keeps making plays. One of the best defenders in the nation, the LB will be asked to make plays against the pass this week. He is the only Power 4 linebacker with 90+ tackles and three interceptions this season.
Maryland wins if…Billy Edwards can take care of the ball. The Terps QB has been up and down but has the talent to make plays. He has thrown for the ninth most yards in the nation but has also thrown nine interceptions.
Against the Hawkeyes, he’ll need to take care of the ball.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Iowa
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa
Northwestern at Michigan
Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, FS1
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line:Michigan –11.5
Over/Under Point Total: 37.5
But the winner of this one takes home the George Jewett Trophy. Look up Jewett and it’s a great story about the first African American player to play for both schools in the 1890s.
This game, however, might be one even Jewett would not want to watch if he were still around. It could get ugly and the offenses might look like they are operating in the 1890s.
Northwestern wins if…Jack Lausch makes plays. For a half against Ohio State, the Wildcats made it tight, just as they did against Indiana. Lausch has the ability to improvise and make things happen. Against Michigan he will need to do a lot of that.
Michigan wins if…they want to go bowling! At 5-5 and a trip to Columbus looming, this is a must-win. And the defense for Michigan must dominate because they will not get a ton of help from the offense.
The Wolverine defense is too talented to lose this one.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Northwestern
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan
Wisconsin at Nebraska
Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line:Nebraska –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 42.5
Nebraska has now lost four in a row following a 5-1 start to the season. The Huskers are one win away from a bowl berth but have now lost nine straight games with the opportunity to get bowl-eligible.
The Badgers are coming off a spirited effort against Oregon, an offensive performance that produced just 13 points—the final straw in the dismissal of OC Phil Longo.
Wisconsin wins if…they can shut down Dylan Raiola and the passing attack of Nebraska. In wins the Badgers have allowed 111.4 yards through the air compared to 218.2 in their five losses.
Nebraska wins if…Dylan Raiola makes better decisions. The freshman has guaranteed a win over Wisconsin this week. Now he needs to back that up. In the Huskers’ four-game skid, he has thrown two TDs compared to seven interceptions.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Wisconsin
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Wisconsin
USC at UCLA
Saturday, November 23
7:30 pm PT, NBC
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: USC –4.5
Over/Under Point Total: 51.5
A win for the Trojans and they go bowling; a win for the Bruins and they keep their bowl hopes alive.
USC has gotten the better of their city rivals over the last quarter century as USC has won 18 of the last 25 between the schools.
USC wins if…Woody Marks can run the football. USC is a better team when they are feeding Marks. The Bruins are stout against the run, ranking seventh in the nation, allowing just 100.6 yards per game on the ground. This matchup could be the deciding factor.
UCLA wins if…Ethan Garbers plays well. In the last four games, Garbers has thrown 10 TDs with just two interceptions as UCLA has gone 3-1 down the stretch. Since missing the Penn State game, Garbers has averaged 273 passing yards per game.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: USC
Points total: Under
Outright winner: USC
Best Bet
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota
Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, CBS
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State –12.5
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5
But the Over has hit in four of Minnesota’s last five, which tells me PSU could get a backdoor cover.
The Under has hit in six of Penn State’s last eight and I do not see the total going over in this one with the Nittany Lions defense against the Gophers offense—so that is why under 45.5 is a best bet this week.
Penn State wins if…they get the ground game rolling. The Nittany Lions have two of the best backs in the nation and Minnesota is very good against the pass. Take the air out of the ball and pound it on the ground.
Minnesota wins if…Max Brosmer doesn’t turn it over and makes plays. The Gopher QB has been good this season with 14 TDs vs. four INTs. He’ll need to take care of it once again against the Lions.
If the Gophers can make plays in the passing game they can keep it close.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Penn State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Penn State
Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks
2024 Week 13 Big 10 Games |
Straight-Up Picks |
Purdue at Michigan State Nov 22, 5:00 pm PT |
Michigan State |
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State Nov 23, 9:00 am PT |
Ohio State |
No. 25 Illinois at Rutgers Nov 23, 9:00 am PT |
Illinois |
Iowa at Maryland Nov 23, 9:00 am PT |
Iowa |
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota Nov 23, 12:30 pm PT |
Penn State |
Northwestern at Michigan Nov 23, 12:30 pm PT |
Michigan |
Wisconsin at Nebraska Nov 23, 12:30 pm PT |
Wisconsin |
USC at UCLA Nov 23, 7:30 pm PT |
USC |
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record | 73-27 (73%) |
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