Arizona at TCU

Saturday, November 23
12:00 pm PT, ESPN+

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: TCU -11.5

What’s at Stake: Bowl eligibility is on the line for Arizona.

The Wildcats must win their final two games of the season to reach .500. Brent Brennan’s team upset Utah on the road earlier in the year and TCU has been up and down.

With the season on the line, UA could make the game closer than some expect.

Why Arizona Wins: The slow-developing run and pass plays are used rarely but efficiently. On defense, the blitzing schemes get pressure and the secondary generates turnovers.

Why TCU Wins: The offensive line wins the physicality battle to allow the run game to have success and Josh Hoover is accurate with his throws.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Arizona
Straight Up: TCU

UCF at West Virginia

Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, ESPNU

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UCF -3

What’s at Stake: Both teams are fighting to reach six wins.

The matchup with UCF is West Virginia’s best shot at becoming bowl-eligible. The Knights must beat the Mountaineers this week and Utah to close the season.

And with rumors of Gus Malzhan retiring at the end of the year, the momentum arguably favors WVU.

Why UCF Wins: RJ Harvey meets his 6.8 yards per carry average and the defense wins the turnover margin.

Why West Virginia Wins: The dual-threat nature of Garrett Greene creates the open space needed for WVU to create explosive plays on offense and the defense contains Dylan Rizk when he runs.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: West Virginia
Straight Up: West Virginia

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, ESPN+

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Texas Tech -3.5

What’s at Stake: Oklahoma State is on a seven-game losing streak. The Pokes can’t stop anyone on defense and the offense is ineffective.

Texas Tech has lost three of its last four. But the Red Raiders are already bowl-eligible and OSU is mathematically eliminated from reaching six wins.

There’s a reason why this game is on ESPN+.

Why Texas Tech Wins: The defense holds Ollie Gordon to around his average of 71.4 yards per game and the receivers create explosive plays in the passing game.

Why Oklahoma State Wins: The offensive line gets the push required to establish the run game, Alan Bowman is accurate and on time with his throws, and the front seven prevents explosive run plays.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Texas Tech
Straight Up: Texas Tech

No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State

Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Arizona State -3

What’s at Stake: The Playoff is up for grabs for both teams.

Arizona State would likely be eliminated from the Big 12 Championship Game if it loses and BYU’s path would become more difficult.

It’s an elimination game in its truest form.

Why BYU Wins: The defense limits the number of broken tackles Cam Skattebo creates, the front seven prevents Sam Leavitt from running for first downs, and Jake Retzlaff doesn’t throw an interception.

Why Arizona State Wins: Leavitt’s willingness to run creates open space for the ASU wide receivers and running backs to take advantage. The defense limits BYU’s run game and comes up with key short-yardage stops on the ground.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Arizona State
Straight Up: Arizona State

Baylor at Houston

Saturday, November 23
4:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Baylor -7.5

What’s at Stake: Houston must win out to become bowl-eligible.

With victories over TCU, Utah, and Kansas State but losses to Arizona and Kansas, the Cougars are an unknown. Baylor, on the other hand, is on a four-game winning streak and has a consistent offense.

A win by the Bears would result in a more respectable bowl game.

Why Baylor Wins: Sawyer Robertson carves up the Houston defense when running and is accurate with his throws when passing.

Why Houston Wins: The defense prevents explosive run plays from Robertson and the offense stays out of third-and-long situations.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Baylor
Straight Up: Baylor

No. 22 Iowa State at Utah

Saturday, November 23
4:30 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa State -7.5

What’s at Stake: Iowa State has a tough path to the Big 12 Championship Game. Even with Utah in a down year, winning at Rice-Eccles Stadium is not a given.

The Clones then must beat Kansas State to close the year. ISU is not a realistic at-large contender for the Playoff and is relying on winning the Big 12.

A defeat to the Utes would end those hopes.

Why Iowa State Wins: The defensive line gets enough pressure on Isaac Wilson to force poor throws and the offense meets or exceeds its 166.5 average yards rushing.

Why Utah Wins: The offensive line wins the physicality battle against the Iowa State front seven, the run game is established, and Wilson doesn’t turn the ball over.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Utah
Straight Up: Iowa State

Cincinnati at Kansas State

Saturday, November 23
5:00 pm PT, ESPN2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Kansas State -8.5

What’s at Stake: This matchup is a late-season Litmus Test for Kansas State’s program.

The Playoff and Big 12 Championship Game are falling out of reach and the fanbase is growing dissatisfied.

A defeat to Cincinnati would only increase the calls for changes to the coaching staff.

Why Cincinnati Wins: Brendan Sorsby breaks out of his funk and gets back to running the offense the way he did earlier in the year.

Why Kansas State Wins: The defensive line creates key third-down stops and the offensive line establishes long drives that are converted into points.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Kansas State
Straight Up: Kansas State

Best Bet

No. 16 Colorado at Kansas

Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado -3

What’s at Stake: The Playoff Committee is paying close attention to this one.

Colorado is a rising power and is close to being considered as an at-large team.

A win over Kansas would significantly boost CU’s clout with the Committee members.

Why Colorado Wins: The offensive line provides the time needed for Shedeur Sanders to connect with his elite receivers, the run game is reasonably effective, and the defensive line gets pressure on Jalon Daniels to force mistakes.

Why Kansas Wins: The defensive line speeds up the decision-making process of Sanders with consistent penetration and creates multiple sacks when he tries to scramble. On offense, the run game is established and chunk passing plays are created.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Colorado
Straight Up: Colorado

Dane Miller’s Big 12 Game Picks

2024 Week 13 Big 12 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Arizona at TCU Nov 23, 12:00 pm PT	TCU
No. 14 BYU at No. 21 ASU Nov 23, 12:30 pm PT	ASU
No. 16 Colorado at Kansas Nov 23, 12:30 pm PT	Colorado
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State Nov 23, 12:30 pm PT	Texas Tech
UCF at West Virginia Nov 23, 12:30 pm PT	West Virginia
Baylor at Houston Nov 23, 4:00 pm PT	Baylor
No. 22 Iowa State at Utah Nov 23, 4:30 pm PT	Iowa State
Cincinnati at Kansas State Nov 23, 4:30 pm PT	Kansas State
Miller’s Overall Big 12 Record	58-31 (65%)

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