UCLA at Washington

Friday, November 15
6:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

UCLA is hot, riding a three-game winning streak into their second straight Friday night game.

Washington comes in following a tough loss to Penn State and a long trip back from State College.

UCLA wins if…TJ Harden can run the ball. The Bruins have not run it well this season, but Harden is coming off a 125-yard outing vs Iowa as the Bruins ran for 211. This was a week after UCLA topped 100 yards for the first time this season against Nebraska.

Washington has gotten bullied this season on the ground.

Washington wins if…the offensive line can hold their own. Last week they were dominated by Penn State as they allowed five sacks and 24 pressures.

If Will Rodgers has time, he could do a lot of damage against a UCLA pass defense that has been terrible this season. Of course, the QB himself will need to rebound from last week’s performance.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: UCLA
Points total: Under
Outright winner: UCLA

No. 2 Ohio State at Northwestern

Saturday, November 16
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State –29.5
Over/Under Point Total: 44.5

Well, it is a homecoming for the Wildcats and this one will be at Wrigley Field as the Cats trade the temporary on-campus digs for the home of the Cubs for the final two home games of the season.

That’s about it for the Cats.

OSU is fresh off a No. 2 ranking in the CFB Playoffs.

Ohio State wins if…they don’t get caught looking ahead to the Indiana game next week. Yeah, 2024 is a weird one when Northwestern could be a trap game for the Buckeyes ahead of Indiana.

Ohio State has no business losing this game and they will not.  Also, look for another big cover in Chicago.

Northwestern wins if… they win the turnover margin—in a big way. I have written many times how important the TO margin has been for the Cats over the last two seasons. It is even more important in this one.

NU needs to have 0 and force about four…then they could have a chance—a small chance but a chance.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Ohio State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State

Michigan State at Illinois

Saturday, November 16
11:30 am PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Illinois –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5

Illinois is looking to rebound from a two-game slide while Michigan State is coming off a bye.

The Spartans needed the week off after being beaten up and injury-riddled vs. Indiana.

Aidan Chiles should be able to go on Saturday, but DB Charles Brantley may not, and that might be a bigger deal.

Michigan State wins if…they can generate a ground game. MSU is running for 175 yards per game in its wins and just 72 in losses. That spells it out right there: Run the ball and get a win.

Illinois wins if…they get some pressure on MSU. The Spartans allowed 15 tackles for loss (TFL) against Indiana. The Illini are near the bottom of the nation in TFLs per game at 4.1 and in their losses, they are getting just 2.6  per game.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Illinois
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Illinois

No. 4 Penn State at Purdue

Saturday, November 16
12:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line:n Penn State –28.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

Purdue will take the nation’s second-longest losing streak into Senior Day at Ross-Ade.

Penn State will take a lot of momentum into West Lafayette after thrashing Washington last week.

If the Husky QBs were running for their lives, you’ve got to think what the Purdue passers might experience this week.

Penn State wins if…the defensive front picks up where they left off last week. The PSU defense cut loose and got after the QB for the first time this season, and they were productive. The Boilers are 104th in the nation in sacks allowed.

Purdue wins if…they conger up some Ross-Ade magic in their final home game of the season. This is a Boilermakers team that is on the verge of packing it in for the winter.

The home finale may summon up the last bit of fight they have….and that still won’t be enough.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Penn State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Penn State

Nebraska at USC

Saturday, November 16
1:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: USC –8.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

Two proud programs will meet for just the sixth time ever.

USC is the only opponent Nebraska has played more than once and not defeated.

The Trojans need a win in this one to get to 5-5 and have a chance to become bowl-eligible. The Huskers win and they are assured of a postseason appearance.

Nebraska is 0-7 the last seven times they have needed one more win to get bowl-eligible. Included in those seven losses is a current three-game losing streak.

Nebraska wins if…they win the TO battle. Nebraska’s strong first half of the season was fueled in part by a +6-turnover differential through six games. They are –6 in the last three games.

USC wins if…Woody Marks has a big game. Nebraska has been good against the run, but USC seems to have played their best football this season when Marks and the ground game get going.

With Jayden Maiva, a productive ground game will help to open things up for him.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Nebraska
Points total: Over
Outright winner: USC

Rutgers at Maryland

Saturday, November 16
3:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Maryland –5.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

T

he win over Minnesota last week may have been a season-saver. Rutgers needs just one win in the final three games to go bowling.

Maryland is a much more dangerous team, but the season will most likely end without a bowl game, and a loss at home to the Knights would almost certainly seal the deal.

Rutgers wins if…. they get the ground game going. In five wins, they have run for 212 yards per game in the four losses that falls to 125 per outing.

Maryland wins if…Billy Edwards can get hot. The Terps QB is 11th in the nation throwing the football. Rutgers passing yardage splits: 273.8 allowed in the losses, only 196 per game in the five wins.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Rutgers
Points total: Under
Outright winner:  Maryland

Best Bet

No. 1 Oregon at Wisconsin

Saturday, November 16
4:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon –14
Over/Under Point Total: 52.5

Oregon has the second-longest winning streak in the nation at 11 games.

Wisconsin has lost their last two games and welcomes the No. 1 team in the nation to Camp Randall Stadium with an 0-3 mark against ranked opponents this season.

The under is a safe bet in this one. The Badgers scored just 23 total points in their last two games and the Ducks defense has been elite.

I see no issue with Oregon covering the two TDs either.

Oregon wins if…. the defense dominates this one. Oregon has allowed 20 points or less eight times this season. They’ll have a chance to shut down the Badgers and the offense can probably get away with a 28-point performance. They can win comfortably.

Wisconsin wins if…they can jump on the Ducks early and build a lead. Madison will be rocking for a night game and an early lead will fuel the crowd, and it could be difficult for Oregon to claw back.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon

---

Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks

2024 Week 12 Big 10 Games	Straight-Up Picks
UCLA at Washington Nov 15, 6:00 pm PT	UCLA
No. 2 Ohio State at Northwestern Nov 16, 9:00 am PT	Ohio State
Michigan State at Illinois Nov 16, 11:30 am PT	Illinois
No. 4 Penn State at Purdue Nov 16, 12:30 pm PT	Penn State
Nebraska at USC Nov 16, 1:00 pm PT	USC
Rutgers at Maryland Nov 16, 3:00 pm PT	Maryland
No. 1 Oregon at Wisconsin Nov 16, 3:00 pm PT	Oregon
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record	68-25 (73%)

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US)
Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY)
Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA)

21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. First Bet Offer up to $1500*. *Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.