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Top Games

Portland State at Washington State

Saturday, Aug. 31
Noon PT, The CW

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington State –28.5*
Over/Under Point Total: 60.5

Portland State wins if…they force turnovers—and a bunch of them. In 2023, the Vikings forced only 12 turnovers, ranking 96th nationally among FCS programs.

The Cougars coughed it up 21 times in 2023 to rank 96th among FBS squads. The Viks are a big underdog and need to force mistakes to have any shot at all.

Washington State wins if…they don’t turn it over!!! If the numbers above aren’t enough, WSU was +.40 per game in the TO margin in wins last season and –1.14 in losses.

But really, the Cougs just need John Mateer to get things rolling. PSU was 84th against the pass in FCS last season while Wazzu had one of the best passing attacks in the nation.

Mateer doesn’t need to put up Cam Ward numbers in this one, but he just might.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Washington State

Colorado State at No. 4 Texas

Saturday, Aug. 31
12:30 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Texas –32.5
Over/Under Points Total: 60.5

For the Rams, this is a chance at some exposure against a top-notch program and a chance for their offensive weapons to showcase themselves in a big game.

For the fourth-ranked Longhorns, this is a chance to open things up on a good note ahead of a showdown with Michigan to follow.

Texas is 108-20-3 (.836) all-time in season openers and looking to open 1-0 for the sixth straight season.

The Horns are 15-1 against current MW teams but struggled early with Wyoming last season before pulling away in the fourth.

Colorado State wins if….the Longhorns are looking ahead to the Wolverines. CSU’s offense is explosive.

Texas has a great defense, but a potent offense can be dangerous, especially if UT starts slowly and looks past the high-powered Rams.

Texas wins if…Quinn Ewers is Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns scored at least 30 points in 12 of 14 games with Ewers under center.

Even if it turns into a shootout, UT has plenty of offensive prowess to match the Rams—and then some. The Texas defense can also make things happen, and their 16 interceptions were the 10th most in the nation a year ago.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Colorado State
Point total: Over
Outright winner: Texas

Boise State at Georgia Southern

Saturday, Aug. 31
1:00 pm PT, ESPNU

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boise State –12.5
Over/Under Points Total: 58.5

The Broncos have high hopes for 2024, but they need to start with a win, something Boise State has not done recently.

You have to go back to 2020 for the last time the Broncos opened the season with a win, and 2019 for the last time they won their first road-game opener.

Clay Helton’s Eagles have won 16 of their last 17 home openers. They don’t lose much in Statesboro. Period. They are 214-49 at Paulson Stadium. That .814 winning percentage is the fourth-best in the FBS.

This game is a chance to stake their claim as one of the players in the Group of Five.

Boise State wins if…they feed Ashton Jeanty. The Broncos’ best player could have a chance to take over the game on Saturday.

Georgia Southern was not good against the run last season, ranking 88th in the nation. Good backs were able to churn out yards last season and look for Jeanty to excel in this one.

Georgia Southern wins if…the young offensive line can slow down the Boise State front. GSU has a lot of talent on offense.

The passing offense was 13th in the nation last season; Derwin Burgess could end his time in Statesboro as the best WR in school history and Jalen White has nine 100-yard games while splitting playing time throughout his career.

But all that talent is for naught if the O-line that returns just two starters can’t control the trenches.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Boise State
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State

Idaho State at Oregon State

Saturday, Aug. 31
3:30 pm PT, The CW

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon State –28.5
Over/Under Point Total: 52.5

The Trent Brey era in Corvallis opens with Idaho State of the FCS. The Beavers have won nine in a row against FCS opponents.

OSU has outscored FCS opponents by an average of 29.9 points per game since 2012.

Idaho State had a difficult season in 2023 but kept things tight in the opener with San Diego State as they were in it with a chance at the end before falling by eight.

The other FBS opponent for the Bengals in 2023 was not as close—Utah State flat-whooped ‘em 78-28. This one will be more like the lopsided contest in Logan.

Idaho State wins if…Oregon State forgets how to play any offense at all. The Bengals allowed almost 40 points per game and over 225 yards rushing per game in 2023.

That is not a recipe for success and the 3-8 record was proof. Not being able to stop the run against this OSU squad could be a recipe for disaster.

Oregon State wins if…they outmuscle the Bengals—among other things. But quite simply the OSU offensive line is one of the better lines in the nation and they should be able to dominate ISU in the trenches.

Jam Griffin could have a field day running behind Joshua Gray. And once the Beavers depth takes over, it will be lights out.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon State
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon State

Fresno State at No. 9 Michigan

Saturday, Aug. 31
4:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan -21.5
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5

Fresno State gets a chance to shine in prime time in NBC’s marquee spot in Week One.

Now sure, that might have more to do with the defending champs than Fresno, but they have a chance to shine on the national stage nonetheless.

This is not last year’s Michigan team, and this Bulldog team has some firepower on offense.

The Wolverines are looking to prove last year was no joke. UM also looks to prove this season’s defense is as good as it was in 2023.

Also, you don’t go 40-3 in the last 43 games by mistake. The Wolverines are elite.

Fresno State wins if…Mikey Keene has the game of his life. The QB will need to be efficient and accurate as he will be called upon to make a ton of plays.

As good as Malik Sherrod is as a runner he could get bottled up by one of the nation’s best defenses. Scoring chances will be minimal and Keene needs to make the most of them all.

Michigan wins if…Alex Orji does not have the worst game of his life. (I’m guessing Orji wins the starting job over former walk-on Davis Warren but the same could be said for whoever starts and plays.)

There’s plenty of talent around the new QB, but he can’t screw it up in career start Number One.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Fresno State
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan

UCLA at Hawai’i

Saturday, Aug. 31
4:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UCLA –14
Over/Under Points Total: 54.5

It’s another Big Ten vs. Mountain West showdown in primetime.

Hawai’i gets a chance to showcase their explosive passing game on CBS, with several thousand new eyeballs watching them for the first time.

The Bruins open the DeShaun Foster era on the road while making their nonconference debut as a new member of the Big Ten.

UCLA wins if…Ethan Garbers thrives as the unquestioned starter for the first time in his career. Last season, when he threw for multiple touchdowns, the Bruins went 4-0.

They will also need the new defense to perform well against a potent passing attack.

Hawai’i wins if…Dennis Thurman’s defense can wreak havoc. The longtime NFL DC will match wits with longtime NFL OC Eric Bieniemy.

Thurman’s scheme depends upon the defense creating substantial pressure up front and the secondary locking things down. Cam Stone’s ability to neutralize J.Michael Sturdivant in the passing game could be a matchup to watch.

—My Picks—
Against the spread:  Hawai’i 
Point total: Under
Outright winner: UCLA

Texas A&M-Commerce at San Diego State

Saturday, Aug. 31
5:00 pm PT, truTV

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: San Diego State –34.5
Over/Under Point Total: 57.5

This one is intriguing for what it tells us about Sean Lewis’s offense.

The Aztecs may struggle at times this season, but their offense will not be boring to watch, especially in this season-opening contest.

Commerce enters its third season at the Division I level after recording a 1-9 season last year.

Commerce wins if…an act of God intervenes and even that might not get it done.

It’s worth noting that Max Epps, an All-American DB last season, was the first athlete in any sport in Commerce history to be an All-American in the DI era.

San Diego State wins if…they score a couple of TDs, and they will. The Aztecs will score a lot of TDs in this one.

They just might give up a few more points than they would like, but scoring should be no problem. SDSU will outpace the Lions by a bunch. The single-game passing mark of 568 could be in jeopardy.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Diego State
Point total: Over
Outright winner: San Diego State

New Mexico at No. 21 Arizona

Saturday, Aug. 31
7:30 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Arizona –31.5
Over/Under Point Total: 58.5

The Bronco Mendenhall era should have opened with a win last week.

Instead, the Lobos suffered one of the largest fourth-quarter collapses by an FBS team against an FCS school (albeit an exceptional FCS school).

This week the Lobos face an Arizona team they should have no business beating. Success will be measured by the fight UNM shows after the tough opener and will go a long way toward setting the tone for the season.

Arizona wants to open the Brent Brennan era in style and show that they are a legitimate player in the Big 12. The Wildcats are ranked in the preseason for the first time since 2015 and have a chance to exert their dominance early.

New Mexico wins if…the Lobos play a perfect game, Arizona face-plants, and Devon Dampier balls out. Dampier played well in the opener, and UNM needs more of that all season, especially in this one.

Eli Sanders may not find the space running the ball as he did against Montana State, so the Lobos will need the passing game to click. And cut down on the dropped passes.

Arizona wins if…the 31 transfers on the roster all click, and they should. The Wildcats bring the second-longest win streak in the nation into this one.

Superstars Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan could have career days while Jacob Manu and the defense should keep the Lobos in check.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Arizona
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Arizona

Wyoming at Arizona State

Saturday, Aug. 31
7:30 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Arizona State –6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 48.5

Wyoming has a chance to knock off a Big 12 opponent for the second straight season and kick off the Jay Sawvel era right.

The Cowboys may have a different coach, but the formula is the same: Play good defense and run the football.

State looks to take a big step in Year Two with Kenny Dillingham. In their first game as a Big 12 school, the Sun Devils can show how much progress they have made over last season.

Wyoming wins if…the defense keeps ASU off schedule. Wyoming will play tough defense again, but they need to get teams off the field on third down.

Last season, they ranked 113th in the nation in opponent third-down conversions. They need to create more third-and-distant situations in this one.

Arizona State wins if…If the offense is vastly improved from last year and it should be. The QB play will be much better, especially with the additions of Chamon Metayer at TE.

Cam Skattebo is back, and the Swiss Army Knife can do it all for ASU.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Wyoming
Point total: Under
Outright winner: Arizona State

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Best Bet

UNLV at Houston

Saturday, Aug. 31
4:00 pm, PT FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Houston -1.5
Over/Under Point Total: 54.5

Te Rebels are coming off their best season in 40 years. And they open the 2025 season with a chance to defeat a Power Four opponent on the road for the first time since 2020.

Houston is looking to open the Willie Fritz era with a win over a quality opponent. The new head coach pulled so many new faces out of the transfer portal, it’s tough to get a good read on the Cougars.

But as the home team from a Power conference, the slight edge has to go to Houston.

If they were playing at a neutral site, the Rebels would probably be favored. UNLV has some questions at QB, but I love the idea of them getting points in this one.

The 54.5 over/under total points scares me, though…Definitely not my favorite option.

UNLV wins if…they can start fast. The Rebels went 9-0 last season when leading after three quarters. If they can get a lead on the Cougars, they should be able to keep it.

A big reason for jumping on opponents last season was forcing turnovers. The defense has its limitations, but created a TO in 13 of 14 games, and ranked fourth in the nation with 17 interceptions.

Get Houston in a jam early and the Rebels could run away with it.

Houston wins if…the offense remains high-octane. The line has just one starter returning from last season. QB Donovan Smith is back but the Las Vegas native had surgery to repair the labrum in his right shoulder.

How fully back he is will be a factor. The offense is going to need to produce to keep pace with UNLV.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: UNLV
Point total: Under
Outright winner: UNLV

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Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-2 Game Picks

2024 Week 1 MW + Pac-2 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Portland State at Washington State Aug 31, 12:00 pm PT	Washington State
Colorado State at No. 4 Texas Aug 31, 12:30 pm PT	Texas
Boise State at Georgia Southern Aug 31, 1:00 am PT	Boise State
Idaho State at Oregon State Aug 31, 3:30 am PT	Oregon State
UNLV at Houston Aug 31, 4:00 pm PT	UNLV
Fresno State at No. 9 Michigan Aug 31, 4:30 am PT	Michigan
UCLA at Hawai’i Aug 31, 4:30 pm PT	UCLA
Texas A&M-Comm at San Diego State Aug 31, 5:00 pm PT	San Diego State
New Mexico at No. 21 Arizona Aug 31, 7:30 pm PT	Arizona
Wyoming at Arizona State Aug 31, 7:30 pm PT	Arizona State
Vilardo’s Overall MW + Pac-2 Record	3-0 (100%)