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Conference Champion Projection: Oklahoma State

Eight. That’s the number of 10-win seasons Oklahoma State has had since 2010.

During that stretch, the program made two appearances in the Fiesta Bowl, made the Alamo Bowl twice, and even landed in the Sugar Bowl in 2015.

How dominant has the program been?

In those 14 years, OK State had just three losing seasons in conference play and is 10-4 in bowl games.  The last time OSU failed to reach bowl eligibility was all the way back in 2005.

Now with Texas and Oklahoma out of the way, the Big 12 is theirs for the taking.

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Darkhorse: West Virginia

The Mountaineers are not getting enough attention.

Head Coach Neal Brown led the program to nine wins last season with one of the top running offenses in the country.

He returns his starting quarterback and both parts of his one-two punch at running back.

Coming off a bowl victory against North Carolina after winning five of their last six games, the stars may be aligning in Morgantown.

The key arguably rests on the defensive side of the ball after WVU allowed more than 30 points in five games last year, four of which ended in losses.

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Under the Radar: Arizona State

Nobody outside of Tempe expects Arizona State to be any good.

Never mind the torrent of injuries Kenny Dillingham dealt with last season or the door that hit Jaden Rashada on his way out of the program over the offseason.

The Sun Devils will be better than last year.

Dillingham reeled in two four-star freshmen recruits and has the nation’s No. 30 Transfer Class, per 247Sports.

Former USC Running back Raleek Brown and Michigan State quarterback Sam Leavitt should help reshape the image of Arizona State Football in its new conference.

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All Eyes On: Utah

Fair or not, Utah fans may not have the best reputation in their new league.

While their views don’t necessarily reflect the attitudes of the coaches and players, Ute fans on X (formerly Twitter) seem to believe their program is better than the rest of the Big 12.

And who knows? They may be right.

Still, it’s surprising to see Utah fans making enemies instead of friends in a conference that kept their team from getting lost in the conference-realignment shuffle.

It may not matter on the field, but giving all 15 teams extra bulletin board material probably doesn’t help. The result may be a rivalry-like game against every league opponent they face this season.

Feuding aside, Utah fans might be better served worrying about the team’s conditioning program, which seems to lose players to injury too often.

Arizona

10-3 Overall,  7-2 in Pac-12
Victory in Alamo Bowl

Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan return to lead an Arizona team that brings back the lion’s share of its players from last year’s 10-win team.

Three starting offensive linemen return along with four of five starting defensive backs.

That’s without even mentioning star linebacker Jacob Manu or the numerous weapons on offense brought in through the transfer portal.

Look for the Wildcats to exceed expectations in Brent Brennan’s first season.

Arizona State

3-9 Overall; 2-7 in Pac-12

The key to the Sun Devils’ season could be staying healthy along the offensive line.

The team struggled with injuries up front all last year, forcing coaches to use running back Cam Skattebo as a jack of all trades.

With more weapons around him this season, ASU’s offense should be more dynamic. But Dillingham’s system still figures to take advantage of the skill in his running back room.

The pieces are there for a better-than-expected season.

Baylor

3-9 Overall; 2-7 in Big 12

“We pay players,” Bears head coach Dave Aranda announced at Media Day.

Yeah, well, so does everyone else.

Baylor’s marketing strategy is a bit odd for a program that has posted two straight losing seasons and hasn’t breached .500 in three of the last four years.

Coming into the 2024 campaign with the No. 38 transfer class and No. 53 recruiting class, per 247Sports, it’s fair to ask if anything will change.

BYU

5-7 Overall; 2-7 in Big 12

In its first season in the Big 12, BYU went 2-7 in conference play.

The step up in competition appears to have had an effect, forcing the Cougars to miss a bowl game for the first time since 2017 and just the second time since 2004.

It’s hard to envision that changing this year, after Kalani Sitake only managed to bring in the country’s No. 76 Transfer Class and the No. 62 Recruiting Class, per 247Sports.

UCF

6-7 Overall; 3-6 in Big 12
Loss in Gasparilla Bowl

If ever there was a program that has taken full advantage of its move to a Power Conference, it’s UCF.

Arguably a budding powerhouse in the Big 12, the Knights have got it together.

Coming into the season with the No. 22 Transfer Class, per 247Sports, Central Florida is legitimate. It should be easy to recruit to Florida and NIL money does not appear to be lacking.

And after stomping Oklahoma State last year in a 45-3 win while losing three one-score conference games by a combined four points, UCF is a program to keep an eye on.

Cincinnati

3-9 Overall; 1-8 in Big 12

The 2021 season was a long time ago. Cincinnati fans should treasure that 13-1 year that saw the program make the College Football Playoff.

But times have changed.

The Bearcats won just a single game in Big 12 play and were blown out by Kansas, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State.

Coming into the year with the country’s No. 42 transfer class and No. 60 Recruiting Class, per 247Sports, the clock is ticking to get the program turned around.

Colorado

4-8 Overall; 1-8 in Pac-12

It’s showtime. Deion Sanders and the Colorado program make a lot of noise on the national media landscape.

But it’s unclear if that is warranted.

The team was humbled along the offensive line in Coach Prime’s first year and his defense couldn’t stop anyone. But that could change.

Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter return to make a dynamic offense and are bolstered by the country’s No. 8 Transfer Class, per 247Sports.

Still, there are no more excuses left for not achieving bowl eligibility.

Houston

4-8 Overall; 2-7 in Big 12

Arguably at the bottom of the barrel in the new Big 12, Houston is back at Square One.

But out of all the teams that joined the league in 2023, UH might have the most long-term success.

Why? The City of Houston. There’s something special about the place that should translate to powerful traditional and transfer portal recruiting.

Hammering home the point, despite the poor play on the field last year new head coach Willie Fritz still managed to bring in the nation’s No. 34 Transfer Class, per 247Sports.

Iowa State

7-6 Overall; 6-3 in Big 12
Defeat in Liberty Bowl

Matt Campbell is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. Since taking over the program in 2016, he has led Iowa State to six winning seasons in his eight years at the helm.

During that stretch, the Cyclones have just two losing seasons in conference play.

The transfer portal and traditional recruiting rankings aren’t impressive (No. 83 Transfer Class and No. 71 Recruiting Class, per 247Sports), but it would be unwise to overlook ISU in 2024.

Kansas

9-4 Overall; 5-4 in Big 12
Victory in Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Coming off one of the best seasons in program history and their most wins since 2007, Kansas Football is rolling.

Lance Leipold has turned the team around since taking over in 2021. But most importantly, the Jayhawks managed to keep him over the offseason.

Running back Devin Neal returns after scoring 17 touchdowns last year along with top wideout Lawrence Arnold who reeled in 792 yards receiving and six touchdowns.

Kansas State

9-4 Overall; 6-3 in Big 12
Victory in Pop-Tarts Bowl

Chris Klieman might be the most unheralded coach in College Football.

Since taking over for Bill Snyder in 2019, Kansas State is 39-24 and 19-8 over the last two years. The Wildcats made the Sugar Bowl in 2022 and are projected to be one of the top contenders in the Big 12 this season.

Starting quarterback Will Howard transferred to Ohio State, but top running back DJ Giddens returns after posting 1,226 yards rushing and 13 total touchdowns.

Combined with Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards, the KSU backfield is elite.

Oklahoma State

10-4 Overall; 7-2 in Big 12
Victory in Texas Bowl

The Cowboys are 27-12 over the last three seasons and 19-9 in conference play.

Featuring arguably the top running back in the country with Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State can beat anyone on its schedule.

Starting quarterback Alan Bowman returns along with top two wide receivers Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens. If Bowman can cut down on throwing so many interceptions, OK State could make the Playoff.

TCU

5-7 Overall; 3-6 in Big 12

The Horned Frogs took a step back after making the National Championship game during the 2022-23 season.

But with the nation’s No. 25 Transfer Class, per 247Sports, the expectations are to get back on track.

Sonny Dykes enters his third year in Fort Worth needing strong play from his quarterback.

Yet, after failing to reel in an immediate impact starter through the portal, Dykes will be forced to roll with Josh Hoover who threw nine interceptions in his freshman season.

Texas Tech

7-6 Overall; 5-4 in Big 12
Victory in Independence Bowl

The Red Raiders have bowl victories in three straight years and enter 2024 with high expectations.

Posting a winning record in back-to-back Big 12 seasons for the first time since 2009, the landscape of the new league is beneficial.

And after bringing in the country’s No. 26 Recruiting Class and No. 36 Transfer Class, per 247Sports, Texas Tech is primed to out-perform.

The expectations make sense considering TTU returns both its starting quarterback and running back.

Utah

8-5 Overall; 5-4 in Pac-12
Defeat in Las Vegas Bowl

What happened last year almost doesn’t matter.

Star quarterback Cam Rising missed the entire season and the program was essentially built around him. Rising led Utah to two Rose Bowls and returns for what appears to be his final season of college football.

As long as Utah can stay healthy, it should find success. It’s a defense-first program that wins in the trenches.

The first year in the Big 12 is the ultimate measuring stick of where the program is at.

West Virginia

9-4 Overall; 6-3 in Big 12
Victory in Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Posting its most wins since the 2016 season, West Virginia might be flying under the radar.

The Mountaineers were No. 3 nationally in rushing yards per game and they return both of their top two running backs.

CJ Donaldson Jr. and Jahiem White combined for over 1,500 yards and 17 touchdowns. Starting quarterback Garrett Greene is back, too, making WVU a team to watch in 2024.