Nothing is set in stone, however, as rosters and depth charts continue to evolve over the summer.

Overview

Brendon Lewis is fresh off his first season as the starter, engineering a rocky 4-8 campaign while leading one of the nation’s worst offenses.

Offensive starters Jarek Broussard, Brenden Rice, and Dimitri Stanley are all gone, while defensive starters Mekhi Blackmon, Christian Gonzalez, and Mark Perry left too.

Best-Case Scenario

The sophomore improved as the year went on, getting comfortable within the offense and guiding CU to late-season victories over Oregon State and Washington.

His scrambling ability and willingness to run are strengths that he should exploit, which could help improve the traditional ground game by opening lanes for his backs.

Enter Alex Fontenot.

Arguably short-shifted behind Broussard and Ashaad Clayton, the time for Fontenot to shine is now. A capable pass-catcher out of the backfield, the senior has all the tools to exceed as the No. 1 running back.

If Fontenot can average four to five yards per carry behind an improved Lewis, the Colorado offense should regain the red zone efficiency it had a few seasons ago, with tight end Brady Russell and Baylor wide receiver transfer R.J. Sneed reaping the benefits.

Worst Case Scenario

Where will the leadership and production come from?

Defensive lineman Terrance Lang, linebacker Quinn Perry, and West Virginia linebacker transfer Josh Chandler-Semedo are probably the top players on that side of the ball and the obvious answers.

And if that happens, the local Colorado media might be publishing stories about the terms of Dorrell’s buy-out by the end of the season.

What Should Happen

The momentum continues into Week Two with a road victory over Air Force and holds steady into the early part of the Conference season with wins over Arizona and California.

The remainder of the year features a string of tough defeats, with the matchups against Arizona State and Washington coming down to the wire.

The end result is a four-win season with the 2023 campaign becoming Dorrell’s make-or-break year.

What Must Happen

Chandler-Semedo must generate production in the second level, while Lang needs to wreak havoc up front.

At the same time, Dorrell’s offense can’t go through another season of just 18.8 points per game. An improved ground game is pivotal, and Fontenot’s health could be a deciding factor.

It’s not a chicken or the egg scenario: It all starts on the ground.

Greatest Strength

The camaraderie such circumstances create should galvanize the roster, producing an “Us vs. Everyone” mentality that is worth its weight in gold.

The result should be a team that never quits and is able to battle back from deficits.

And while team chemistry and hard work don’t always translate to wins, it should keep the locker room morale high enough to produce an upset victory or two during the 2022 season.

Biggest Concern

Chandler-Semedo was one of the top linebackers in the Big 12 and should fit nicely into the shoes that Landman left. Production from fellow LB Perry is a given.

Yet, the Buffs lost three key defensive backs in Blackmon, Gonzalez, and Perry.

New blood must emerge at the corner and safety positions for Colorado to be competitive against Pac-12 offenses.

Deciding Factors

The night-and-day nature of Lewis opens the door to Shrout, who could end up as the starter and never look back. Either way, the play of Colorado’s quarterback will likely change the trajectory of its season.

Outside of the gunslinger, the CU offensive line is probably the second deciding factor in the third season under Dorrell.

The offense only managed to put up 257 yards per game in 2021, arguably hampered by an O-Line that ranked 11th in the Pac-12 in sacks allowed (2.67 per game).

The struggles up front resulted in one of the worst third-down conversion percentages in the nation, with Colorado managing to convert just 32.3 percent of the time (119th out of 130 FBS teams).

TCU struggled against California at home last year, but has a Top 30 recruiting class and the No. 12 transfer class, according to 247Sports.

That might spell trouble for Colorado, yet the advantage of playing at home could result in a surprise victory over the Horned Frogs.

The second game of the year features a road test at Air Force. The run-heavy option attack is hard to defend, but CU should come out on top.

Yet, a 0-2 start to the year wouldn’t be much of a shock.

And it doesn’t get any easier with another road game in Week Three, this time at Minnesota.

With that slate on deck, a 1-2 nonconference season is probably the most that can be expected.

Over the remaining nine games of Pac-12 play, winnable matchups are few and far between. The showdowns with Arizona, California, and Washington are realistic opportunities for wins.

While the games against Arizona State and Oregon State are longer shots.

And while upsets happen, the contests with UCLA, Oregon, USC, and Utah all likely end with a defeat.

With all that in mind, the ceiling for Colorado in 2022 appears to be five wins with a floor of just a single victory. The result is probably somewhere in between, with three Ws emerging as the safest bet.