Jonathan Smith’s run-based offense worked wonders last year, helping to engineer victories over USC and Utah.

The wins propelled the program to the LA Bowl in Smith’s fourth season at the helm, boosted by the production of one of the top running backs in the league in B.J. Baylor.

Baylor surprisingly went undrafted in the 2022 NFL Draft but signed a free agent deal with the Green Bay Packers.

The Beavers also lost their leading receiver in Trevon Bradford and their leading tackler in Avery Roberts.

Electrified with a secondary that has plenty of talent, Oregon State has legitimate expectations to go bowling once again.

Best-Case Scenario

The redshirt junior’s willingness to run and his familiarity with Smith’s system produces one of the top running offenses in the Conference.

With a deadly frontline headlined by returning starters Joshua Gray and Brandon Kipper, lanes are opened for the backs week-in and week-out.

The backfield becomes a three-headed monster with Martinez, Deshaun Fenwick, and Trey Lowe, as the trio combine for over 2,500 yards rushing and more than 30 touchdowns on the ground.

Exponentially strengthened by Nolan’s consistent keepers, the ground game controls the tempo and time of possession in almost every game of the season.

But most importantly, the defensive line makes a substantial jump.

Highlighted by James Rawls and Simon Sandberg, the Beavers win more battles in the trenches leading to a much-improved third-down percentage defense.

Worst-Case Scenario

The Beavers had the fourth-worst third-down defense in the nation last season, allowing opponents to convert 50.3 percent of the time.

Yet, Roberts led the way with 9.5 tackles for loss and was closely trailed by LB Andrzej Hughes-Murray, who also exhausted his eligibility.

Speights and Sharp are unable to match the combined 18 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks that Roberts and Hughes-Murray posted last year, leading to another season of poor third-down defense.

The front seven’s issues are most felt in the second half of close games, where Oregon State is unable to get off the field against strong offensive lines.

The result is a sickening inability to overcome second-half deficits and painful fourth-quarter performances.

Without the ability to generate stops, the Beavs drop games to Washington State, Arizona State, and California in a disappointing 5-7 campaign.

What Should Happen

Nolan has another year of experience under his belt, and enters the season without a legitimate threat to his starting role. Tristan Gebbia is a solid backup, but Nolan solidified the starting job last year and hasn’t looked back.

Fenwick was a strong second-punch in the run game in 2021 and promises to continue to play a pivotal role.

Lowe put up respectable numbers in the limited opportunities he got last season, too, and is probably highly motivated to garner a greater share of the carries this season.

Regardless of the running back rotation, Smith’s system under the command of Nolan is primed for success. The head coach and quarterback are well-matched, as Nolan operates the system directly as it’s intended.

And with a strong offensive line to boot, the OSU offense should once again be one of the top scoring offenses in the Pac-12.

What Must Happen

The Beavers lost their leading receiver in Bradford, but return Tre’Shaun Harrison and Tyjon Lindsey. The duo combined for over 600 yards receiving and six touchdowns last year, promising to be the primary threats on this season’s squad.

If the group can consistently generate chunk plays, Smith’s offense becomes dramatically more dynamic.

The running game will remain the bread-and-butter, but the Beavers’ ceiling significantly rises if its receivers exceed expectations.

Even that might not matter, though, if Nolan is sloppy with the ball. The senior can’t have another 10-interception year, or any improvements in the passing attack will be neutralized.

Greatest Strength

The high mark is particularly impressive given the run-first tendencies of the offensive system.

But the numbers don’t end there.

The Beavs were tied for seventh in the country in sacks allowed per game, eighth in the FBS in third-down conversion percentage, 19th overall in rushing yards per night, and fourth in the Pac-12 in time of possession.

All of those stats indicate a powerful offensive line that is arguably attributable to the coaching of Jim Michalczick. The unit figures to once again be the strong point of Oregon State’s program.

Biggest Concern

For a team with such a strong frontline on offense, the juxtaposition along the D-Line is sharp.

Each of those poor numbers are attributable to the defensive line and would have been much worse without the talented linebackers behind them.

The line must get more penetration into the backfield, or OSU could find its path to bowl eligibility blocked. New defensive coordinator Trent Bray’s play-calling and scheme could lead to marked improvement.

But without any stalwart transfers added to the unit plus the loss of Keonte Schad, the D-Line is largely dependent on the improvement of Rawls, Sandberg, and the return of Isaac Hodgins who missed the 2021 season with a foot injury.

To Smith’s credit, his focus on recruiting the two linemen was well-placed.

Malaki-Donaldson is the top-rated recruit in Oregon State’s Class of 2022, and Wright is fourth. The expectation for the two to play early and often is clear.

Deciding Factors

Oregon State was tied for 63rd in red zone offense, scoring just 84.2 percent of the time. The mark was tied for seventh in the Pac-12 and is troubling considering the strong offensive line and deadly rushing attack.

The issues in that part of the field could be related to play-calling, an area that could be improved relatively quickly.

Whether it takes specific packages or dedicated film study, a change in Oregon State’s red zone efficiency could substantially alter the trajectory of its season.

Schedule Analysis

Nonconference play begins with a difficult test against Boise State in Corvallis and doesn’t get any easier with a road game at Fresno State. A 2-0 record is a fair goal, but a split is a legitimate expectation.

The Trojans are much-improved and the Utes are seeking revenge. Despite Oregon State’s strength, a 1-2 mark over the stretch might be the most that can be expected.

The remainder of the year, however, features more winnable games. The Beavs travel to Stanford in what should end in a close OSU victory, followed by home matchups against Washington State and Colorado.

Wazzu might pull off the road win, making a 2-1 result over those three games a realistic prediction.

The Beavs then go to Seattle to take on Washington in a game that might end in defeat, and then host Cal before taking on Arizona State in Tempe.