Nothing is set in stone, however, as rosters and depth charts continue to evolve over the summer.

Overview

The loss of production is just as bad on defense, where the Bears must find a way to replace five of their top seven leading tacklers, their top two leading sackers, their top two players in fumbles forced, and three of their top four leading tacklers for loss.

That’s an inordinate amount of talent lost on both sides of the ball from a team that hasn’t made a bowl game since the 2019 season.

But it’s not all doom and gloom.

Justin Wilcox returns his leading tackler in safety Daniel Scott, along with talented linebackers Nate Rutchena and Muelu Iosefa, plus corners Lu-Magia Hearns III and Collin Gamble.

Best-Case Scenario

The relatively soft nonconference schedule, apart from the matchup at Notre Dame in Week Three, makes the path to bowl eligibility smooth in the first half of the year.

The duo combine for more than 30 touchdowns on the season, as the top returning wide receiver Jeremiah Hunter emerges as a consistent threat in the passing game.

True freshman Ott is part of the rotation from Week One, effectively spelling Moore and doing damage catching passes out of the backfield.

On defense, the tested linebacker corps of Rutchena, Iosefa, and Sirmon lead the team on and off the field, helping to produce a Top 25 scoring defense in Wilcox’s sixth season.

Worst-Case Scenario

The defense is able to hold its own, but the offense substantially regresses and fails to eclipse 21.0 points per game.

The relatively inexperienced wide receivers corps doesn’t pose a threat to opposing secondaries, boxing Cal into becoming a run-heavy offense that is entirely too predictable.

Big plays in the passing game are hard to come by, leading defenses to stack the box and game plan exclusively around Moore.

The result is an ugly offense that can’t win close games.

What Should Happen

The decision-making from the experienced quarterback should make life easier for the RB, whose knack for finding the end zone is exemplified in red zone situations.

Plummer posts Cal’s highest touchdown-to-interception ratio since Chase Garbers’ 2019 barn-burner season, annulling the preseason concerns in the wideout room.

The result is an offense that posts its most points per game since 2017, propelling the Bears to bowl eligibility for the first time in three years.

On defense, the combined strength of the linebackers and defensive backs should produce one of the top scoring defenses in the Pac-12.

What Must Happen

Hunter is the lone returning WR with significant numbers, leaving a gaping hole to be filled.

Fortunately, Plummer has the skill required to keep the passing game just as productive without Garbers and should help develop the inexperienced group.

Sophomore tight end Keleki Latu and redshirt freshman receiver J.Michael Sturdivant have sizable opportunities to take advantage of, along with incoming freshman receiver Jaiven Plummer and junior college transfer Mason Starling.

Greatest Strength

The trio of Rutchena, Iosefa, and Sirmon should be among the top LB groups in the Conference.

But the secondary might be even stronger. Led by redshirt senior safety Scott, the corners are held down by Hearns III and Gamble.

Biggest Concern

But outside of the clear lack of experience in that position group, the defensive line may be a growing cause for concern. The Bears were surprisingly below-average in sacks per game last year, tied for 78th in the country with only 2.0 per game.

Those numbers are probably attributable to the lack of penetration up front, putting an emphasis on the development of defensive linemen Ethan Saunders and Jaedon Roberts during the offseason.

Deciding Factors

California was among the top teams in all of College Football last season in turnovers lost, ending the season seventh overall with only 10 throughout the year.

Eight of those were interceptions, though, which figure to take center stage with Plummer under center.

If the redshirt senior can take care of the ball better than Garbers, the Cal defense should do enough to put the offense in positions to win.

But if Plummer doesn’t adjust well to Musgrave’s system and commits too many INTs, the Top 10 turnover margin Cal enjoyed last season could fall to a more average ratio, substantially harming the Bears’ chances in close games.

Schedule Analysis

The matchup in Week Three on the road against Notre Dame won’t be easy and likely ends with a loss. The final score may be closer than some may think, but it would be one of the most shocking upsets of the year if Cal walks away with a win.

The rematch with Arizona in Week Four could be a bellwether game. A defeat to the Wildcats could send the season into a spiral, while a victory would probably indicate a bowl game is on the horizon.

The Bears then travel to Pullman to face Wazzu, a game that could go either way.

Cal stays on the road the following week, taking on Colorado in Boulder. Despite the altitude challenge and the probable belief within the CU roster, the Bears should find a way to win.