Posted on December 10, 2020
|
Getting points in the Red Zone or keeping opponents off the board in the Red Zone is critical to success. But even more critical can be whether a team is coming away with six points or three.
Here we will look at which Pac-12 teams are getting the most out of their trips inside the 20 as well as doing the best to minimize the damage opponents have on Red Zone trips.
In the table below, we examine offensive trips to the Red Zone. Colorado has maximized things getting 86.11% of the points available to them. The Buffs have gotten a TD on 14 of 18 RZ trips for a TD rate of 77.78%. Arizona on the other hand has only managed to score 54.55% of the maximum on their RZ trips. This is a good illustration of why a team is 4-0 vs 0-4 perhaps.
Offensive Red Zone Rates
| Team | Attempts | Scores | Score % | TD % | FG % | % of Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 18 | 17 | 94.44% | 77.78% | 16.67% | 86.11% |
| WSU | 11 | 11 | 100% | 63.63% | 36.36% | 81.82% |
| UCLA | 19 | 17 | 89.47% | 73.68% | 15.79% | 81.58% |
| OSU | 20 | 17 | 85% | 70% | 15% | 77.5% |
| Oregon | 24 | 20 | 83.33% | 70.83% | 12.5% | 77.08% |
| Stanford | 18 | 15 | 83.33% | 66.67% | 16.67% | 75% |
| Washington | 18 | 16 | 88.89% | 55.56% | 33.33% | 72.22% |
| USC | 25 | 19 | 76% | 60% | 16% | 68% |
| Cal | 14 | 11 | 78.57% | 57.14% | 21.43% | 67.86% |
| Utah | 12 | 10 | 83.33% | 50% | 33.33% | 66.67% |
| ASU | 6 | 4 | 66.67% | 50% | 16.67% | 58.33% |
| Arizona | 11 | 8 | 72.73% | 36.36% | 36.36% | 54.55% |
When we switch sides of the ball, we again see 4-0 Colorado at the top of the chart. The Buffs have limited damage in the Red Zone with allowing just 65% of the total point available. Look at USC closely in this one. The Trojans, also 4-0, have allowed a score on a Pac-12 worst 90% of opponents’ trips to the Red Zone, but only 50% have resulted in a TD. Opponents have only gotten 70% of the maximum points on offer.
Defensive Red Zone Rates
| Team | Attempts | Scores | Score % | TD % | FG % | % of Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 10 | 8 | 80% | 50% | 30% | 65.00% |
| Cal | 16 | 12 | 75% | 56.25% | 18.75% | 65.63% |
| OSU | 22 | 19 | 86.36% | 50% | 36.36% | 68.18% |
| Utah | 13 | 11 | 84.62% | 53.85% | 30.77% | 69.23% |
| USC | 10 | 9 | 90% | 50% | 40% | 70.00% |
| Arizona | 22 | 19 | 86.36% | 59.09% | 27.27% | 72.73% |
| ASU | 10 | 8 | 80% | 70% | 10% | 75.00% |
| UCLA | 20 | 17 | 85% | 65% | 20% | 75.00% |
| Oregon | 21 | 18 | 85.71% | 66.67% | 19.05% | 76.19% |
| Stanford | 20 | 17 | 85% | 70% | 15% | 77.5% |
| Washington | 14 | 11 | 78.57% | 78.57% | 0% | 78.57% |
| WSU | 15 | 13 | 86.67% | 86.67% | 0% | 86.67% |
Here are a few notes and numbers on this week’s matchups:
Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats
Arizona holds a 49-43-1 edge all-time in the Territorial Cup. The Sun Devils have won the last three meetings and six of the last eight, which have seen the two teams combine for 75.3 points per game.
The Wildcats have lost 11 consecutive games, tied for the second-longest active streak in the nation. Arizona has allowed at least 24 points in 12 consecutive games, the third-longest streak in the nation.
Arizona State has a Pac-12 best 17.5 plays per game covering at least 10 yards, tied for the 14th-most in the nation. The Wildcats are allowing 6.52 yards per play, 107th in the country.
The Sun Devils are allowing 18.5 such plays per contest which is the fourth-most of any team in the nation. They are only giving up 1.5 per game of 30+ yards, ranking inside the top 30 on the good end of things. Arizona is averaging just 13.25 plays per game of at least 10 yards this season, 91st in the nation.
The Sun Devils are fourth in the nation with 4.0 sacks per game as a team. The Wildcats are allowing 4.25 sacks per game, the fourth-most in the nation. Arizona State is forcing 1.5 fumbles per game, the seventh-most in the nation, Arizona is averaging 1.0 fumbles per game.
The Wildcats run defense has been good in third-and-short situations, allowing a conversion on just 31.8%, the fourth-best in the Conference and 26th in the NCAA. ASU is 119th offensively in that situation converting just 40.0%. Unfortunately for the Cats, that is one of the few bright spots in their run defense. They are allowing 273.5 per game, tied for the second-most in the nation.
Utah Utes at Colorado Buffaloes
Since the teams joined the Pac-12 in 2011 the Utes have taken seven of the nine meetings including the last three by an average margin of 24.7 points per game. Utah has outscored the Buffs 109-35 in those three games.
Karl Dorrell is the only coach in Colorado history to take a team unranked in the preseason and have them ranked at some point in his first season.
Jarek Broussard is third in the nation with 4.5 runs of 10+ yards per game this season and 1.75 per game covering at least 20 yards. Broussard is picking up 6.25 first down runs per game, the fifth-most in the country and second among Pac-12 players.
Last week Jarek Broussard became 12th player in Pac-12 history to rush for over 300 yards in a game. His 301 yards tied for 10th all-time in the conference record books and is the most for a player from the conference since Eno Benjamin ran for 312 vs OSU in 2018. On the season, he is second in the nation with 183.25 rushing yards per game. Should he continue at that rate it would be the highest mark for a Pac-12 player since Marcus Allen averaged 202.25 for USC in 1981.
Utah leads the Pac-12—and is fourth nationally—with 1.67 interceptions per game, yet the Utes are 11th in the Pac-12 and 113th in the nation with a turnover margin of –1.0 on the year. Vonte Davis is second in the Pac-12 with two interceptions on the season; the Utah seniors’ 0.67 picks per game are tied for the fourth most in the country.
Colorado has not been easy pass against either as the Buffaloes lead the conference and rank fourth nationally with 6.25 Passes Defended (PD) per game. Isaiah Lewis is leading the way for the Buffs with 1.5 per game, tied for the third most in the nation.
Washington Huskies at Oregon Ducks
UPDATE: THIS GAME HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO COVID-19 PROTOCOLS.
Washington owns a 60-47-5 series edge all-time, but Ducks have won 14 of the last 16 in the series. The last 20 meetings have had an average margin of 23.9 points.
Oregon has won 12 straight games at Autzen Stadium, tied for the sixth longest streak in the country. The Ducks have lost two straight for the first time since 2018, they have not had a three-game losing streak since the 2017 season.
Last week was the first time Oregon did not score at least 35 points this season. The 17 points were their fewest since scoring 17 in a win vs Cal last season. The Ducks have not been held to 20 points or less in consecutive games since a two game losing streak in 2018. Should Washington hold the Ducks to under 20 points, it would be the first consecutive game for UO since 2017.
Washington has not allowed an opponent to score over 35 points in a game in 75 consecutive contests. That is the longest active streak in the nation and the longest for a Pac-12 team since the Huskies streak of 83 in a row from 1975-83. During the streak UW has allowed just two opponents to score 35 points. Penn State in the 2017 Fiesta Bowl and Oregon last season. During the streak, the Huskies are allowing an average of 18.2 points per game. The Ducks are averaging 23.0 in their five games vs Washington during the streak.
On third down this season, Dylan Morris is completing 70.6% of his passes, the third most of any Freshman in the nation and 14th most overall. Of those completions, 70.8% have earned a first down, 32nd in the nation. 50.0% of his pass attempts on third down have gained a first down, that is the ninth highest rate in the nation.
Jaylon Redd has caught at least two passes in 20-consecutive games for the Ducks, the longest active streak in the country.
Washington has limited opponents to a conversion on just 21.05% of rushing attempts on third-and-short this season, the second-best defensive mark in the nation. Oregon has converted on 50.0% of their third-and-short runs, ranking 88th in the nation.
Oregon leads the Pac-12 and ranks 18th in the country with 1.6 plays of 40+ yards per game. Washington is allowing a Pac-12-low 0.25 plays of 40+ yards per game, the third fewest in the nation.
USC Trojans at UCLA Bruins
The Trojans have a 48-32-7 edge on the Bruins all-time. The last eight games have been split at four apiece, with the home team going 6-2 in those eight.
USC enters the game on a five-game true road winning streak, the fourth longest in the nation (road game only, not included is Holiday Bowl at neutral site). USC is averaging 34.8 points per game during those five games.
The Trojans have only converted one run on third-and-short into first down this season. Their conversion rate of 14.29% on the season is the second lowest in the nation (Colorado State 12.5%). Defensively, the Bruins are tied for 110th in the nation in that category with a 50% rate. The team UCLA is tied with is USC. When UCLA has the ball, they have converted on 64.3%, with Demetric Felton converting 60% individually.
UCLA has allowed just nine total points in the fourth quarter this season. That is 1.8 per game and the third fewest of any team in the country. Last season the Bruins allowed 9.6 per game in the fourth quarter, ranking them 118th in the nation and 11th in the Pac-12.
Greg Dulcich has picked up a first down on 81.25% of his receptions this season that is the fifth highest rate in the nation and highest of any Pac-12 player. That rate is also the highest for any tight end in the nation. Demetric Felton in picking up 6.8 first downs rushing per game, the third-most of any player in the nation.
Kedon Slovis is completing 29.75 passes per game, the second-most in the nation. The USC signal caller is seventh in the nation with a completion percentage of 72.1%. For his career, Slovis has a completion percentage of 72.0% and has had only one game that he completed under 67% of his passes.
This season, USC is the highest scoring first-half team averaging 22.5 points; UCLA is second with 19.8. After half time, however, the Trojans have averaged just 10.8 points per contest.
California Golden Bears at Washington State Cougars
Cal holds a 48-28-5 advantage over Washington State all-time and the Bears have won 12 of the last 15 over the Cougars.
Renard Bell is averaging 3.0 third-down receptions this season, the sixth-most in the nation. He is gaining a first down on 1.67 of those receptions, the most of any player in the Pac-12. Bell is third in the nation with 9.0 receptions per game, Travell Harris is 10th in the nation and second in the conference with 7.7 receptions per game.
Deon McIntosh is ninth in the nation with 6.91 yards per carry.
On third-and-short this season, Damien Moore has converted a first down on five of six attempts. His 83.3% success-rate is the best of any player in the conference with at least six attempts and the 28th best in the nation.
Cameron Goode is third in the nation with 2.0 tackles for loss (TFL) per game. While Goode is excelling, the rest of the Bears defense has not been getting stops behind the line. Cal is averaging 5.0 TFL per game, 97th in the country. This will be a tough week to reverse that as WSU is allowing just 4.3 TFL per game, the 19th-fewest in the country.
Kuony Deng is fifth in the nation with .5 fumbles forced per game. Last week, he forced two in the fourth quarter resulting in Cal takeaways.
In the fourth quarter this season, Washington State is allowing 12.0 points per game, the third-most of any team in the nation.
Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers
Stanford has won 58 of the 86 meetings including the last 10. A Cardinal win would equal the longest streak in the series at 11 in a row. Stanford won 11 straight over the Beavers from 1919-1936.
Davis Mills has completed 54.6% of his passes on third down this season. All 18 of his completions on third down have resulted in a Stanford first down. He is the only player in the nation with a 100% first down rate on third-down completions this season.
Offensively, the Cardinal have been successful on third down as a team, ranking 32nd in the nation with a conversion rate of 45.76%. Stanford has not had a lot of luck getting teams off the field on third down. They are last in the nation in third-down defense with opponents converting on 57.14% on the season. The Cardinal have had two games this season where opponents have converted on 60% or better.
Stanford’s Austin Jones is averaging 1.75 rushing TDs per game on the season, the eight most in the nation and tied for the second most in the Pac-12 with Jermar Jefferson. Oregon State’s Calvin Tyler leads the conference with 2.0 rushing TDs per game after stepping in for Jefferson a week ago. Tyler has scored a TD on 16.7% of his runs this season, among the nation’s highest rates.
Oregon State’s defense has allowed a TD on just 50% of Red Zone trips, tied for the 15th best mark in the nation. Last week, Avery Roberts racked up 21 tackles, the most in a single game by a player this season. It also marked the third-most by a player in Oregon State history. His 13.0 tackles per game are the most in the Pac-12 and second in the nation.
The Beavers are averaging an FBS-leading 12.8 points per fourth quarter. Last season when the teams met, OSU scored 21 points in the final stanza.
Stanford is 17th in the nation and third in the Pac-12 with a turnover margin of 0.73 on the season.
Looking at some selected national individual ranks
• Tyler Johnson, Arizona State: Leads the nation with 3.25 TFL per game and 2.0 sacks per game•
• Travis Dye, Oregon: Leads all RBs nationally with 10.8 yards per play from scrimmage•
• Thomas Booker, Stanford: Has two blocked kicks this season, giving him .5 per game and tied for the most in the nation
• Kedon Slovis, USC: Eighth in the nation with 314.3 yards passing per game
• Jarek Broussard, Colorado: Second in the nation with 192.3 yards from scrimmage per game
Looking at some selected national team ranks
• Utah: Leads the nation with a punt return average of 28.67 yards per return
• Colorado: Fourth in the nation with 6.2 passes defended per game
• Oregon: 0.6 plays per game of 60+ yards, eight most in the nation
• Arizona State: 8.5 TFL per game are the eight most in the country
• Washington: Allowing just .25 sacks per game, the second fewest in the FBS
Career Records Watch
Tyler Vaughns, USC
Last week, he caught five passes for 69 yards and a TD. Currently, he has 212 career receptions, for the 23rd most in conference history. His next reception will tie him for 20th, and should he catch five passes again, he’d move into 19th. He now has 2,649 receiving yards for his career, the 45th-most in Conference history. Former Beaver Sammie Stroughter is four yards ahead of him. He has 19 career TD receptions and his next one will move him into the top 50 all-time
Oscar Draguicevich, Washington State
He had four punts for a 38.3-yard average, giving him a career average of 45.42 yards per punt, which would be the second-best mark all-time in Conference history behind the 45.74 of Mitch Wishnowsky. (Third-best should Turk continue his rate)
Michael Turk, Arizona State
He punted three times for a 46.0-yard average. That brings his career total to 46.37 yards per punt on 75 career punts, which would be the best average in conference history.
Follow Stephen on Twitter @StephenVilardo and his organization @SERCenter, and visit his website at SERCenter.
—More from Stephen Vilardo—
- Stephen Vilardo’s San Diego State-UConn Sweet 16 Preview
- Stephen Vilardo’s MW Second-Round Big Dance Previews
- Steve Vilardo’s MW Friday 1st-Round Big Dance Previews
- Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West NCAA First Four Preview
- Stephen Vilardo’s 2024 Mtn West Tournament Title Preview
- Vilardo: Final 2024 MW Hoops Power Rankings & Outlook
- Stephen Vilardo’s ’23-24 WK 10 MW Hoops Power Rankings
- Stephen Vilardo’s 2023-24 WK 9 MW Hoops Power Rankings
- Stephen Vilardo’s 2023-24 WK 8 MW Hoops Power Rankings
- Stephen Vilardo’s 2023-24 WK 7 MW Hoops Power Rankings
- Stephen Vilardo’s 2024 NFL Super Bowl LVIII Preview
- Stephen Vilardo’s 2023-24 WK 6 MW Hoops Power Rankings
- Stephen Vilardo’s 2023-24 WK 5 MW Hoops Power Rankings
- Stephen Vilardo’s NFL Conference Championship Previews
- Stephen Vilardo’s 2023-24 WK 4 MW Hoops Power Rankings
-
Stephen Vilardo’s San Diego State-UConn Sweet 16 Preview
Will the Aztecs be able to match the results from last season’s run against the Huskies? - March 28, 2024 -
Stephen Vilardo’s MW Second-Round Big Dance Previews
Three different teams won an NCAA Tournament game for the first time in conference history - March 24, 2024 -
Steve Vilardo’s MW Friday 1st-Round Big Dance Previews
SDSU, New Mexico, and Utah State give the Conference three shots at redemption today - March 21, 2024