Pac-12 Football 

Vilardo: Week 5 Pac-12 Football Statistical Matchup Notes

A look at this weekend's Conference matchups by the numbers
, 14 min read
The Utes overwhelmed the Beavers 52-7 last season in Corvallis. | Utah Athletics

Posted on December 3, 2020


  By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports

With a shortened conference-only schedule (for the most part) you will see some statistical breakdowns where the top and bottom half are almost split.

 

Turnovers can be one such stat, and the Pac-12 currently has six teams that have a turnover margin of at least +1.0 per game, and four teams giving the ball over more than once per game.

But there are some oddities in the numbers for sure.

Arizona State is forcing an FBS leading 3.0 fumbles per game, though—granted —it’s only one game. ASU recovered all three of those fumbles. They also lost all three of their own fumbles, while also adding a pick for a +1 margin.

Utah is a Pac-12-worst –2.0 in turnover margin per game. This despite the Utes being one of just three teams in the country averaging at least 2 interceptions per contest. They have also added a fumble recovery for +2.5 takeaways per game. The problem is they have given the ball away nine times in two games.

Colorado, Washington and Stanford share the Pac-12 lead with a turnover margin of +1.33 per game. The Buffs have fumbled three times and recovered all three, tying them with Western Michigan for the national lead with the most fumbles without losing one.

Buffs linebacker Carson Wells celebrates after an interception against UCLA | Andy Cross/The Denver Post

USC has managed to stay positive for the season at +1.0 per game, but their advantage stems from just one game. Against Utah, the Trojans had five takeaways to finish the game +3.

Arizona has yet to get a takeaway this season. They are -1.3 per game, but could be a lot worse. The Wildcats have fumbled five times this season, but have recovered four of them.

Oregon State has also recovered four of their five fumbles, but the Beavers have added a recovery of an opponents’ fumble and five interceptions to stand +0.5 on the season in the turnover department.

While UA and OSU have put the ball on the turf five times and recovered all but one, UCLA and Oregon have not been so fortunate. The Bruins and Ducks have each lost all five of their fumbles. Both teams have -1.25 per game margin on the season, with 9 giveaways vs 4 takeaways on the year.

Here are a few notes and numbers on this week’s matchups.

 

Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies

The all-time series has been tight between the two teams. They have met 90 times with 43 wins apiece, and four ties. The Huskies have averaged 18.4 points per game while the Cardinal have 18.3 points per game.

Each team has strung together a 10-game win streak in the series, but they’ve split the last four 2-2, with the home team winning each of those last four. The last three have been decided by 7.3 points per game.

Davis Mills is completing 43.5% of his third-down passes this season, going 10-of-23. All 10 of his completions this season have picked up a first down for the Cardinal, though. He is the only quarterback in the nation with a 100% first-down rate on third down completions this season (min 9 completions).

On third down, the Huskies have allowed just 50% of completions that earn a first down, tying Arizona State for the best defensive rate in Pac-12. As a whole on third down, Washington is 11th in the nation with a Pac-12-best 30.77 opponents conversion rate.

The Cardinal is 93rd nationally with a third-down conversion rate of 36.96%. Stanford is allowing a first-down conversion on 56.41% of third downs, ranking 126th in the nation. The Huskies are converting on 45.45%, 32nd best in the nation. Dylan Morris has picked up a first down on a Pac-12-leading 46.67% of his third-down pass attempts, the 21st best rate in the country.

Against Utah, Washington was able to convert all four of their runs on third and short, an obvious improvement over the 1-for-4 mark they had entering the game. Stanford has been solid at stopping the run on third-and-short this season, allowing a conversion on just 44.44% of attempts, the 15th-best mark in the nation.

Washington has held each of their first three opponents scoreless in one half this season—Utah and OSU in the second half, and Arizona in the first half. Nathaniel Peat is averaging 8.1 yards per carry.

Washington enters the game having not allowed an opponent to score over 35 points in 74 straight games, the longest in the nation and the longest for a Pac-12 team since the Huskies streak of 83 in a row from 1975-83.

Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona Wildcats

Arizona is 7-2 vs. Colorado as Pac-12 opponents. The teams have averaged 73.1 combined points in those nine meetings.

Arizona is in the midst of a 10-game losing streak, the fifth-longest active streak in the nation. The Wildcats have allowed at least 24 points in all 10 of those losses and at least 27 in every game this season.

The Cats last win was a 35-30 win at Colorado last season. That began a streak of 11-straight games in which Arizona has allowed 24 or more, tied for the second longest streak in the nation.

Arizona is averaging just 1.67 plays per game of 30+ yards, that is 97th in the nation. This could be a difficult week for the Wildcats to break that streak. Colorado is allowing just 1.33 plays of 30+ yards per game, the second fewest of any conference team, and 16th fewest in the nation.

Carson Wells is third in the nation with 2.17 tackles for loss (TFL) per game.

Isaiah Lewis is tied for the national lead with 2.0 passes defended (PD) per game, the Buffaloes are fifth in the nation with 6.67 PD per game.

The Buffs are allowing opponents to complete just 50% of their passes this season, the third best mark in the country. On first and second down this season, Grant Gunnell has a 75.0% completion percentage. On third down it drops to 43.8%.

Arizona is allowing a first-down run on 30.0% of third-and-short runs this season, the fourth-best defensive rate in the country. Colorado has picked up a first down on 66.7% of their third-and-short runs, the 36th highest rate in America.

 

Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears

Again, we see a Pac-12 North matchup that is historically tight. The Bears own a 41-40-2 series lead all-time (40-40-2 according to some). Cal leads average points per game all-time 20.2-19.7. Recently however, it has not been as close, with the Ducks taking 10 of the last 11, and UO averaging a 24.3 points per win in those 10.

Oregon has scored at least 24 points in 13-straight games, the fifth-longest streak in the nation. The Ducks are averaging 1.75 plays from scrimmage of 40+ yards, the 11th most in the nation. The Ducks are averaging 7.51 yards per play this season, the fifth most in the nation.

Travis Dye has picked up a first down on 39.4% of his runs this season, the third most in the nation. On the season he is averaging 10.7 yards from scrimmage every time he touches the ball. The most of any running back in the nation.

Tyler Shough has started his career with a Pac-12 leading 1,361 yards of total offense, the most ever by a Duck quarterback in their first four starts. Chase Garbers is sixth in the nation with a completion percentage of 76.0% on third down.

Cal is committing 4.3 penalties per game, the 10th least in the nation.

UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils

The last 16 meetings have seen the Bruins and Sun Devils split them evenly. Only seven of those games have been single-digit wins. The home team has won the last four.

Greg Dulcich has caught 12 passes this season with 11 of them gaining a first down. His 91.67% first-down rate per reception is the second-highest in the nation among players with at least seven receptions.

Demetric Felton is third in the nation with 7.75 runs per game picking up a first down. Jayden Daniels had two runs of at least 20 yards vs USC in the opener; if he can duplicate that, his 2.0 such runs per game would be second in the nation only to Buffalo’s Jaret Patterson’s 2.25.

Jayden Daniels is second in the nation with 5.0 runs of 10+ yards per game while Demetric Felton is fifth with 4.5 per game. Rachaad White is averaging 9.7 yards from scrimmager per touch, the second most of any running back in the nation.

Evan Fields made 17 tackles in ASU’s opener. Although only it’s one game, his 17.0 stops per game are the most in the nation. Fields also leads the nation with 2.0 fumbles forced per game, and again, despite a sample size of only playing one game, he is just one off the national lead of total fumbles forced this season.

Jermayne Lole also is the national leader with 2.5 TFL per game.

UCLA has lost their last four games on the road, the 17th longest active run in FBS. The Bruins have gotten at least two sacks in each of the last three games.




Oregon State Beavers at Utah Utes

Utah has won five of seven meetings as conference opponents. The Utes have averaged 29.9 points per game in the last seven meetings while the Beavers have averaged 19.4. All-time, the OSU owns an 11-10-1 series edge.

Oregon State is averaging 1.25 interceptions per game, tied for 15th in the country and the third most among Pac-12 teams. Utah is one of just three teams nationally averaging at least 2.0 interceptions per game.

In their last four games, Utah is allowing 33.0 points per game. The Utes allowed 11.3 in their 12 games prior.

Jermar Jefferson has rushed for at least 100 yards in four straight games, the longest active streak in the country. He is averaging 211 in the last two games. Jefferson is averaging 97.3 yards per game vs Pac-12 South opponents compared to 108.0 vs. Pac-12 North teams.

Utah is allowing just 90.5 yards rushing this season, 7th best in the nation.

In the first half this season, Jake Bentley has completed 68.4% of his passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions. After halftime, his completion percentage drops to 59.4% with no touchdowns and four interceptions. His first-half rating is 159.75, and his second-half rating is 84.47.

Utah is getting penalized 4.0 times per game, tied for the third-fewest in the nation. The Utes are allowing a third down conversion rate of 34.6%, the second best in the Pac-12. The Beavers are converting on 38.9%

All five of Bryan Thompson’s receptions have gone for a first down this season. The Utes have been outscored 33-0 in the second half this season.

Washington State Cougars at USC Trojans

The Trojans own a 60-10-1 series lead (games played on the field). Five of the Cougars’ 10 wins have come in the last 17 meetings, including three of their six wins in Los Angeles.

usc logoUSC has scored at least 24 points in 11 consecutive games, tied for the sixth-longest streak in the country. Washington State is allowing 7.07 yards per play, 123rd in the nation, and USC is 43rd averaging 5.98 yards per play.

Renard Bell and Travell Harris are each averaging 8.0 receptions per game, tied for the eight most in the nation. Deon McIntosh is tied for fifth in the nation and first in the Pac-12 with 4.5 runs of 10+ yards per game.

Kedon Slovis is completing 79.2% of his passes after halftime this season, the second-highest rate in the nation. The Trojan signal caller has completed 75.3% of his career passes in the second half. On first down this season, Slovis is completing 79.3%, sixth in the nation. Slovis leads the nation with 31.3 completions per game.

Drake London is tied for 13th in the nation with 2.67 receptions per game of 15+ yards.




Looking at some selected national individual ranks

• Zion Tupuola-Fetui, Washington: Leads the nation with 1.0 fumble forced among players with more than one game played (3 games).

• Evan Fields, Arizona State:  Averaging 2.0 (1 game) for the most nationally, regardless of games played. He also leads the nation with 2.33 sacks per game.

• Greg Dulcich, UCLA: Is sixth in the nation with 23.67 yards per reception, second most among tight ends. Also, the second most nationally among Sophomores.

• Talanoa Hufanga, USC: Fourth in the country with 0.67 interceptions per game.

• Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State: Second in the nation in rushing with 168.8 yards per game.

• Jarek Broussard, Colorado: Fifth nationally and first among Freshmen/Sophomores with 144.0 yards rushing per game.

Looking at some selected national team ranks

• Washington: Leads the nation with a punt return average of 28.0 yards per return.

• UCLA: Is allowing 0.25 plays from scrimmage of 40+ yards per game. Third fewest in the nation among teams that have played at least two games.

• Oregon: Fifth in the nation averaging 7.51 yards per play.

• Colorado: Fifth in the country with a Red Zone TD rate of 84.6%.

• USC: Have an opponent Red Zone TD rate of 37.5%, fourth best in the country.

Career Records Watch

• Tyler Vaughns, USC

Did not play last week. Currently has 207 career receptions, tied for the 24th most in conference history. Next up on the list is Juron Criner of Arizona with 209. Also has 2,580 receiving yards for his career and the 46th most in Conference history. Former Buff Shay Fields is 10 yards ahead of him.

 

• Oscar Draguicevich, Washington State

Did not play last week but had four punts for a 54.5-yard average against Oregon, giving him a career average of 45.76 yards per punt, which would be better than the all-time conference mark of 45.74 by Mitch Wishnowsky. (Second best should Turk continue his rate.)

 

• Michael Turk, Arizona State:

Did not play last week, but his five punts in the opener for a 51.6-yard average bring his career total to 46.39 yards per punt on 72 career punts. That would be the best average in conference history.

 

Follow Stephen on Twitter @StephenVilardo and his organization @SERCenter, and visit his website at SERCenter.






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