Posted on September 27, 2023
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The eight teams in the West divisions of the NFL all played outside their two divisions this week, going 5-3 with two of the three losses being tight games in primetime.
That other loss…well, at least it was historic.
As for my predictions, I went 9-7 on straight-up picks, against the spread, and over/under totals.
Let’s look for a better mark this week! On the season, I’m 28-20 on straight-up picks, 27-19-1 ATS, and 19-28-1 O/U.
Below are my Week 4 Power Rankings for the eight teams in the AFC and NFC West along with a quick look at the upcoming week’s matchups and my game picks.
1. San Francisco 49ers (3-0) ◄►
Giants Review
The NFL is down to just three unbeaten teams after three weeks of play and the 49ers are one of them.The 30-12-win marks the third time in as many games that San Francisco has reached the 30-point mark this season, and they did this one without Brandon Aiyuk in the offense.
Brock Purdy continues to pick up wins as the second-year QB is now 8-0 as a starter in regular season games. That stands as the third-longest unbeaten streak in NFL history to open a career. Purdy threw for 310 yards in the win over the Giants.
San Francisco was able to give Christian McCaffrey a bit of a rest as Elijah Mitchell played just over a third of the game getting 28 snaps. In fact, Mitchell had more snaps in the first half Thursday than he had in the first two games combined.
The easy win during the short week is rewarded with extra time off ahead of the Cardinals on Sunday.
If there is one glaring weakness for the Niners, it is penalties. San Francisco is averaging 7.7 penalties accepted against them per game. San Francisco’s net penalty yardage per game of minus 20.3 is the third-largest deficit in the league.
Arizona Cardinals Preview
Sunday, October 1
1:25 pm PT, FOX
Entering week three, there could have been a debate over whether the 49ers or Dallas were the class of the league; now the immediate response is we can get ready for a rematch of Super Bowl XIX.
The reason the Cowboys have dipped is their loss to Arizona. San Francisco will host Arizona knowing full well what the Cardinals just did to Dallas. San Francisco is fourth in the NFL in yards per play at 6.05 while they are third defensively allowing just 4.19 per play.
The 49ers offense is more explosive than the Cowboys and there will be no letup in Santa Clara. Look for the Niners to extend their regular season win streak to 14 games.
My Pick: 49ers 33, Cardinals 13
[San Francisco will score 30+ for the fourth straight week and should cover the large spread of 14.5 points. Arizona has an offense good enough to score some points and the teams will combine to get over the 44 total.]
2. Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) ◄►
Bears Review
In their 41-10 drubbing of Chicago, the Chiefs scored points on seven straight possessions. The offense appears as though it has got things figured out.I say appears, because this production came at the hands of the Bears, who entered last week last in the NFL in scoring defense and are quite honestly a hot mess at the moment.
If I were to rank all 32 teams, the Bears might be 32nd. But it is hard to deny this KC offense looked good. The running game produced four TDs after the backs failed to get in the endzone at all in the first two weeks. I
If there is a rough spot, it is still on the line. Last week, I wrote about the penalty issues for Jawaan Taylor, and his struggles continued as he was benched following two penalties for being lined up in the backfield.
New York Jets Preview
Sunday, October 1
5:20 pm PT, NBC
This week should be a much better indicator of where this Chiefs offense stands. The Jets have a very good defense and will test the KC offense. The run game will certainly be tested in this one.
Surprisingly, the Jets have not gotten a lot of sacks this season, ranking 22nd with a sack on just 5.56% of opponent pass attempts. Offensively the Chiefs are first in the NFL with a sack rate of just 0.85%.
And let’s be honest here: Do we really think Patrick Mahomes is going to lose to Zach Wilson (or Tim Boyle)? KC should win with relative ease.
My Pick: Chiefs 23, Jets 10
[The Chiefs are a 9.5-point favorite on the road. The Jets have a good defense, but their offense is last in the league in scoring. Look for the Chiefs to cover but the score stays below the 43 points offered as the total.]
3. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) ▲1
Panthers Review
The Seahawk secondary was banged up heading into the Panthers games and things got worse on the defensive side of things. CB Tre Brown, DE Dre’Mont Jones, and LB Darrell Taylor all could not finish due to injury.It certainly showed as Andy Dalton threw for over 300 yards, Carolina did not top 153 in either of their first two. The Seahawks pass defense is 31st in the league this season and their sack rate is 29th.
The Seahawks might get Riq Woolen and Jamal Adams back for Week 4 and that will help things out at the back end. Quite simply, the Seahawks have to improve against the pass.
While the defense struggled the offense looked very good against the Panthers. They put up 37 points and racked up over 420 yards of offense, despite converting on just 3-of-12 on third down. Seattle is one horrendous half away from sitting at 3-0.
New York Giants Preview
Monday, October 2
5:15 pm PT, ABC/ESPN
As mentioned, the Seahawks have struggled against the pass this season, so the trip to New York on Monday night may be a chance to get things right. The Giants are 28th in the league in passing offense.
Daniel Jones can make things happen, but with Saquon Barkley out this offense is sputtering. Jalin Hyatt may be the most explosive player on that offense now, and against San Francisco, he only ran 13 routes and did not touch the ball.
If Seattle can neutralize him, they should not have much trouble with the Giants’ offense. The key to this one will be if Seattle can generate offense against NY defenders.
My Pick: Seahawks 24, Giants 17
[The Seahawks are getting a point and a half on the road. I look for Seattle to cover that and win outright on Monday. The over/under is set at 47 and I don’t see these two getting involved in a shootout, I’m going to go with the under.]
4. Los Angeles Rams (1-2) ▼1
Bengals Review
The Rams’ offense has looked sharp over the first two weeks of the season. Against the Bengals on Monday Night, the offense did not.Los Angeles ended the night 1 for 4 in the red zone, and the one successful trip yielded just a FG. The offense converted on just 1 of 11 third-down opportunities, with the one conversion coming on the final series.
The Rams had no answer for the Bengals’ pass rush as Matthew Stafford was sacked three times but suffered nine hits and 13 pressures during the game.
The Rams faced a lot of third-and-longs and were playing behind the sticks all night long, thanks in large part to Cincy’s pressure. The Rams converted 56.3% of their third downs in the opening two games.
Los Angeles will have at least one more week without Cooper Kupp as he will not be eligible to return from IR until after Week 4.
Indianapolis Colts Preview
Sunday, October 1
10:00 am PT, FOX
The Rams will get back-to-back games in the Midwest with a trip to Indianapolis up next. The Colts are leading the AFC South and are a surprise 2-1 after knocking off the Ravens in Baltimore.
This is a game that the Rams’ offense should be able to control as the Colts rank 24th in the league against the pass. If Stafford has time to work, he should be able to find Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell.
Lamar Jackson was able to start the game with 10 straight completions against Indy last week, as the Colts left a lot of receivers open in space. The key will be protecting the QB, and it has to be better than it was against the Bengals.
Indianapolis is fifth in the League with a sack rate of 10.91%. The Rams will need to stay ahead of the chains and avoid lost yardage if they want a shot.
My Pick: Rams 23, Colts 21
[The Rams are a one-point underdog on the road. This should be a tight game, but I think the Rams line will hold up and LA leaves with a win. The point total line is set at 46, I think this will be close but go with the under.]
5. Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) ◄►
Vikings Review
How big was the Chargers win in Minnesota to avoid a 0-3 start? Since 1966, just 2.4% of 0-3 teams have ended up making the playoffs. So Los Angeles got the win, that is the good news.The offense was also good, again, as Justin Herbert finished the day 40-47 for 405 yards with 215 of them going to Keenan Allen. Allen caught 18 passes, tied for the third most in a single regular season game in NFL history.
The former Cal Bear is the first player in NFL history with three career games with at least 15 receptions in NFL history.
The bad side of things on Sunday was the Chargers pass defense. It has been terrible this season and seems like every time an opponent has needed a big play, they have gotten one.
The Chargers offense this season is second in the NFL while the defense is ranked 31st.
Las Vegas Raiders Preview
Sunday, October 1
1:05 pm PT, CBS
The offense has certainly bailed out the defense this season, but this week they get a Raiders offense, which is near the bottom of the NFL.
For as rough of a start as it appears—and could have been even worse—LA has a really good shot at being .500 after the first month of the season.
The Chargers offense will have far too much firepower for the Raiders to deal with this week. Look for LA to win by a TD or more.
My Pick: Chargers 33, Raiders 24
[LA heads to Vegas as a five-point favorite. Look for the Chargers to cover that spread. LA will score plenty and I think the Raiders will get enough big plays to push the game over the 47.5-point total.]
6. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) ◄►
Steelers Review
The Raiders had plenty of chances against the Steelers in their loss on Sunday Night. The Steelers had been awful against the run this season and limited Josh Jacobs to just 62 yards and 3.6 per carry.The offensive line was terrible in both the run game and passing. Jimmy Garoppolo was sacked four times and 14 of his pass attempts he had less than 2.5 seconds to get the ball off.
So the protection was lacking, but Garoppolo has to get better. He threw three interceptions against Pittsburgh and that brings his total on the season to an NFL-high six. There are too many weapons on this offense for the QB to perform that poorly.
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Sunday, October 1
1:05 pm PT, CBS
The Raiders will need to get the offense going against the Chargers. LA has been putrid on the defensive side of the ball this season, especially against the pass.
Davante Adams and Jacobi Meyers could have field days against the Chargers secondary. The question is, will they get the ball enough? The Raiders have turned it over seven times this season and the Vegas defense has yet to create a turnover.
This needs to improve or it will be a long day against the Chargers.
My Pick: Chargers 33, Raiders 24
[LA heads to Vegas as a five-point favorite. Look for the Chargers to cover that spread. LA will score plenty and I think the Raiders will get enough big plays to push the game over the 47.5-point total.]
7. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) ▲1
Cowboys Review
How ‘bout them Cardinals! Arizona pounded the ground game and pulled off the big upset over Dallas. The 222 yards on the ground were the most for Arizona in a game since 2020 when they went for 261 against the Cowboys.The Arizona line was able to keep Micah Parsons in check and the defense made stops when they needed to. Arizona limited Dallas to just six points after halftime.
That second-half performance was big as it is the first time this season the Cardinals have played a complete game. In the first two games, the Cards looked great in the first half but folded in the second half.
Even with the defense stepping up, the offense still took a step back after the half: 182 of the Cardinals 222 yards on the ground came in the first two quarters. Joshua Dobbs is proving to be a capable starter.
San Francisco 49ers Preview
Sunday, October 1
1:25 pm PT, FOX
The Cardinals have proved they can win a game; now they just need to continue to play like they did against the Cowboys.
This week the Cardinals will get another tough assignment with a trip to San Francisco. The 49ers have won 13 straight regular-season games, and they appear to be hitting their stride this season on both sides of the ball.
A two-game win streak for the Cardinals will be a big ask.
My Pick: 49ers 33, Cardinals 13
[San Francisco will score 30+ for the fourth straight week and should cover the large spread of 14.5 points. Arizona has an offense good enough to score some points and the teams will combine to get over the 44 total.]
8. Denver Broncos (0-3) ▼1
Dolphins Review
Last season under Nathaniel Hacket, the Broncos committed way too many penalties, stunk on offense, but played pretty good defense.This season under Sean Payton, the Broncos are committing way too many penalties, stink on offense, and appear to be atrocious on defense.
A week ago they allowed Washington to top the 30-point mark for the first time in two years and now they let the Dolphins put up 700+ yards and 70 points!
And let’s be clear here, the Dolphins played that fourth quarter with the intention of not scoring more points.
So on the positive side, Marvin Mims followed up his 113 yards vs. Washington with 73 yards on three receptions, but also just five targets and remained on the sidelines for many three-wide sets.
Early on, Mims seems like Denver’s best weapon on offense, but he needs to get the ball more often and be involved in more.
Chicago Bears Preview
Sunday, October 1
10:00 am PT, CBS
So earlier I pointed out that if I ranked all 32 teams the Bears may be at the bottom. The reason they are not definitely at the bottom is because of the Broncos.
And in reality, Denver is better, or they should be, but losing by 50 and allowing a team to put up 70 does not exactly spark a lot of confidence. Miami is very good, and the Broncos can’t let that loss beat them again this week.
If the Broncos can put that one behind them they should be able to get a win over Chicago. As bad as Denver seems, Chicago is in a lot worse shape The real question is who is actually going to want to watch these two teams play?!
My Pick: Broncos 18, Bears 15
[Denver is a 3.5-point favorite. I don’t think the Broncos will cover that, but they will get the win. I was going to say 17-14, but with these two teams, it seems more likely to have a weird score.
The under does not get close to 46, and if it does then Denver is having a good day.]
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