1. Air Force Falcons (5-0, 3-0) ▲1

BYE Week Review

Air Force is coming out of a bye with a perfect 5-0 mark. The Falcons have not opened perfect after five games since the 2003 season.

The formula is simple: great defense, run the ball, and hit on the big pass play when they give it to you.

Easy-peasy…Well, maybe easier said than done, but the formula has worked perfectly for the Falcons so far.

Air Force has won 10 straight games dating to last season, the fourth-longest streak in the country.

Wyoming Preview

Saturday, October 14
4:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

Air Force will host Wyoming this week and the Cowboys are a formidable foe. This will be just the second time Wyoming has played outside of Laramie, however, and Harrison Waylee is questionable.

The Air Force defense has been excellent against the run this season and that should play into the Falcons’ favor in this one. If they can take away the run game from the Cowboys, they’ll be in good shape.

Andrew Peasley has played very well for UW the last few games and Air Force will need to keep him under wraps.

This could be a defensive struggle, and Zac Larrier could be key. If Air Force can connect on some big pass plays, it will open up the run game.

Should the Falcons emerge victorious, they will be in a good position to head into the season finale with Boise State unbeaten.

My Pick: Air Force 23, Wyoming 17

2. Wyoming Cowboys (5-1, 2-0) ▲1

Fresno State Review

Any doubts about Andrew Peasley were erased in the Cowboys’ win over Fresno State last week. The QB completed 70% of his passes for 180 yards against the Bulldogs and made plays with his legs when he needed to.

The last two times out, Peasley has thrown four TD passes and completed 67% of his tosses. As Wyoming gets more balanced, it will continue to be dangerous.

Air Force Preview

Saturday, October 14
4:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

The Cowboys will need another strong performance from Peasley. Air Force is fifth in the nation against the run allowing just 70.6 yards on the ground per game. Harrison Waylee is questionable, however, and that could affect the Cowboys’ ground production.

Both teams will want to run the ball in this game. Possessions could be limited. With that said, it could come down to big plays and Harrison Waylee is always a threat to break off a long run if he gets space.

Wyoming will need to get at least one of those and limit Air Force’s big plays in the passing game.

My Pick: Air Force 23, Wyoming 17

3. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-1, 1-1) ▼2

Wyoming Review

Fresno State fell at Wyoming to end their 14-game winning streak. The last time the Bulldogs lost a game was October 8, 2022.

In the loss to the Cowboys, Fresno State dug too deep of a hole to recover. The biggest issue for the Bulldogs in the loss was their inability to run the ball, finishing the day with just 38 yards on the ground.

Part of that was the Wyoming defense, and part was the fact that they were throwing the ball a lot more as they had fallen behind. Either way, the Cowboys need to produce more on the ground.

Utah State Preview

Friday, October 13
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

Fresno State will be playing in its seventh game of the season this week with the bye to follow. It is the longest the Bull Dogs have gone in a season without a bye since 2016 when they did not have a bye until after 10 games.

Friday’s game with Utah State is a drastically different matchup than they had with Wyoming. The Aggies will want to throw the ball and move much quicker than Wyoming did. This should be a game the Fresno State defense can take control of.

The status of Mikey Keene is uncertain for Friday, but Logan Fife is a solid replacement.

My Pick: Fresno State 27, Utah State 21

4. UNLV Rebels (4-1, 1-0) ◄►

BYE Week Review

The Rebels are off to a fast start with their only loss ahead of their bye coming at the hands of Michigan.

The key for UNLV is to keep things moving in the right direction coming out of their bye week. The back end of the schedule will get more difficult but winnable games will be there.

Barry Odom is the first Rebel head coach to win four of his first five games at UNLV since Tony Kemp in 1976.

Nevada Preview

Saturday, October 14
2:00 pm PT, Mountain West

UNLV has scored at least 40 points in each of their last three games. It is the first time the Rebels have done that in three consecutive games. I’d say they have a decent chance of running that streak to four games against Nevada.

The Wolf Pack rank 131st in the nation in scoring defense this season allowing 38.4 per game. UNLV is ninth in the nation with a red zone scoring rate of 95.5%. The Rebels have gotten points on 21 of their 22 trips to the scoring zone in 2023.

UNLV should have a leg up in the battle for the Fremont Cannon. The Rebels have gone 3-2 in their last five trips to Reno, and they’ll add another win this week.

My Pick: UNLV 41, Nevada 26

5. Boise State (3-3, 2-0) ◄►

San Jose State Review

Things were not pretty for Boise State against San Jose State. The Broncos got into a deep hole but were able to climb all the way back for the win, scoring the final 28 points of the game to get the 35-27 win over the Spartans.

The jury is still out on the two-QB system for the Broncos with Maddux Madsen and Taylen Green splitting time against SJSU. We will see it for at least one more week as Andy Avalos confirmed they will utilize it again this week.

Eric McAlister had no issues with it as he caught five passes for 170. The most important aspect for Boise was that Ashton Jeanty was there to produce. The back ran for 167 yards and caught a pair of passes for another 16.

Colorado State Preview

Saturday, October 14
6:45 pm PT, FS1

Boise State will look to get off to a quicker start than they did last week this Saturday in Fort Collins. Ashton Jeanty should once again be the focal point for the Broncos on offense.

Colorado State has struggled against the run, look for Boise State to get him going early and often. Both QBs will see action and I’d expect BSU to play to each one’s strength while on the field.

The Rams have played better lately, but this is one that Boise State should win comfortably. The Broncos are 12-0 all-time vs CSU.

My Pick: Boise State 38, Colorado State 17

6. Utah State Aggies (3-3, 1-1) ▲1

Colorado State Review

Utah State still has not gotten the first quarter right. The Aggies were outscored by Colorado State 17-3 in the opening quarter before outscoring the Rams 41-7 the rest of the game.

The Aggies have now been outscored 84-10 in the first quarter this season.

Cooper Legas had a redemption game. After losing his starting job to McCae Hillstead, Legas stepped back into the starting role following an injury to Hillstead and produced 387 yards and four TDs in the win.

The Aggie offense was a balanced attack against CSU with 252 on the ground and 387 in the air. This is the kind of production USU needs every week.

Fresno State Preview

Friday, October 13
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

Utah State cannot afford to get down early to Fresno State—those first-quarter woes need to be corrected.

Running the ball against Fresno State will be difficult. Utah State should be able to produce some offense through the air. The Aggies are too good of a passing team to not take to the air.

Fresno State has a very solid secondary as well and may yield some, but it will be a difficult day for Utah State.

My Pick: Fresno State 27, Utah State 21

7. Colorado State Rams (2-3, 0-1) ▼1

Utah State Review

Colorado State jumped on Utah State early but could not muster anything over the final three quarters of the game.

The Rams were outscored 41-7 and outgained 593-235 after the end of the first quarter.

CSU had been playing good football for three weeks and one quarter. They need to get back to that.

Boise State Preview

Saturday, October 14
6:45 pm PT, FS1

One big improvement for the Rams this season has been pass protection. Through their first five games of the season, they have allowed just seven QB sacks, 1.4 per game. Last season they were dead last in the nation with 4.92 sacks allowed per contest.

This could be a key this week. Boise State is getting to the QB 2.3 times per game and getting 5.2 stops behind the line per game. If Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi can have time to operate he will be able to connect with his targets.

The fact that this meeting is in Fort Collins is big. While Colorado State has never beaten Boise State, the last three games at CSU have been decided by 7.7 points per game. The last three in Boise had an average margin of 32.7.

My Pick: Boise State 38, Colorado State 17

8. San Diego State Aztecs (2-4, 0-2) ◄►

BYE Week Review

San Diego State had plenty to work on during the bye week. The Aztecs are riding a four-game losing streak in which they have been outscored 144-60.

SDSU has faced some very good defenses this season in Ohio, UCLA, Oregon State, and Air Force. So, the competition has been stiff, but the offense has not looked good, ranking 114th in the nation in offense.

The current four-game losing streak is the longest that the Aztecs have experienced since 2018.

Hawai’i Preview

Saturday, October 14
8:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

San Diego State has won nine of the last 11 between the teams, but four of the last five meetings have been one-score affairs.

The Aztec offense has not been great this season, but Hawai’i’s defense could offer a chance to get things going. UH is 79th nationally in total defense…although the same could be said of the matchup in reverse.

I think the Aztecs should get the win on the road. They have more talent and should be able to limit what the Rainbows do.

San Diego State has struggled to run the ball in the last four games, averaging just over 100 yards per game, whereas Hawai’i has allowed almost 200 yards rushing in their last five games. The Aztecs should get the ground game clicking in this one.

My Pick: San Diego State 27, Hawai’i 17

9. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (2-4, 0-1) ◄►

BYE Week Review

Hawai’i has looked like a better team this season than they were last year. The results may not be much different as they come out of the bye with a 2-4 mark.

The passing game has looked much better this season. Brayden Shager is completing almost 64% of his passes with 14 TDs vs. just seven interceptions, an improvement over last season.

San Diego State Preview

Saturday, October 14
8:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

Schager will need to have a good game against San Diego State if the Warriors are going to be in it at the end.

Hawai’i cannot afford to lose the turnover battle in this one. The ‘Bows are last in the nation in running the football, which is a product of the system they run.

But against San Diego State they could have a chance to move it on the ground. The Aztecs are 114th in the nation against the run allowing 184.3 per game. If Hawai’i can get some production on the ground this one could be tight.

My Pick: San Diego State 27, Hawai’i 17

10. San Jose State Spartans (1-5, 0-2) ◄►

Boise State Review

The Spartans looked like they were going to pull off the upset against Boise State and get their first-ever regular season win over the Broncos.

But San Jose State could not finish the job as BSU scored 28 unanswered to get the win. It was once again an issue of playing a good opponent and not coming away with the victory.

The Spartans have had a difficult schedule, but they have got to start getting some wins.

New Mexico Preview

Saturday, October 14
3:00 pm PT, Mountain West

This week the Spartans will travel to New Mexico. SJSU is definitely the more talented team. The issue in this one could be the run game when the Lobos have the ball.

San Jose State is 132nd in the nation against the run this season allowing 223.7 yards per game. Only North Texas is allowing more yards on the ground this season.

New Mexico has run the ball well this season. Against a good Wyoming defense, the Lobos put up 225 yards on the ground. I think San Jose State has too much firepower on offense to let this one slip away.

My Pick: San Jose State 37, New Mexico 28

11. New Mexico Lobos (2-3, 0-1) ◄►

BYE Week Review

New Mexico is an improved team this season. The last time the Lobos took the field they kept things tight at Wyoming.

We found out last week just how good Wyoming can be, especially at home. New Mexico controlled third downs on both sides of the ball against the Cowboys. If they can keep doing that it will keep them in games.

The Lobos’ 13-game conference losing streak is the second longest in the nation, but you have to think that may come to an end soon.

San Jose State Preview

Saturday, October 14
3:00 pm PT, Mountain West

The real issue for New Mexico against Wyoming was giving up big plays. San Jose State is another team that has the ability to strike quickly. The Lobos have run the ball well and the Spartans are not good against the run.

This one will stay tight, but San Jose State has too much talent to fall this time. The conference losing streak will extend for one more week.

My Pick: San Jose State 37, New Mexico 28

12. Nevada Wolf Pack (0-5, 0-1) ◄►

BYE Week Review

Nevada has lost for 15 straight games, the longest active streak in the nation—by a good margin.

The Wolf Pack have played better in the last three weeks, but big plays are also a big problem.

Nevada has allowed 13 plays this season of 40+ yards, the second most in the nation.

UNLV Preview

Saturday, October 14
2:00 pm PT, Mountain West

Nevada has spent the last month playing on the road. A home game and the battle for the Fremont Cannon is next.

The Wolf Pack have won 13 of the last 18 between the Silver State rivals.

When the teams met in Las Vegas last season the Pack jumped out to a 13-0 lead before letting it get away from them. UNLV has been putting up points in bunches the last few weeks while Nevada has not been great on defense this season.

This one may get away from Nevada sooner than last year’s contest.

My Pick: UNLV 41, Nevada 26