By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
November 29, 2023
In the AFC, the Broncos keep on winning and have played themselves into playoff contention while the Chargers are going the other way.
In the NFC we look ahead to a matchup in Philadelphia that could decide conference supremacy.
For my picks for the entire NFL, I went 11-5 with a 9-6-1 mark against the spread and a 12-4 over/under totals.
Season-long I’m 118-66 overall, 98-77-4 ATS, 103-71-6 O/U.
Below are my Week 12 Power Rankings for the eight teams with a quick look at the upcoming week’s matchups and my game picks.
1. San Francisco 49ers (8-3) ◄►
Seahawks Review
The 49ers have won 10 straight games against NFC West opponents with four of them coming over the Seahawks.The Niners pass rush, which was a concern early in the season, is now a strength. After only collecting 18 sacks in the opening eight weeks of the season, San Francisco has totaled 15 in the last three games.
San Francisco has now opened up a two-game lead on their closest rivals and will host them in a rematch in the Bay in a couple of weeks.
The Niners will have a chance to take a commanding lead with a win in that one and, depending on how things go before that meeting, they could wrap up the division in that one.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Sunday, December 3
1:25 pm PT, FOX
A big reason we need not look too far ahead is because this week offers a huge game as the Niners will travel to Philadelphia for an afternoon offering.
At 10-1, the Eagles sit two games ahead of both the 49ers and Lions in the NFC. If San Francisco wants a chance to host throughout the postseason as the number one seed, they need to pick up this win on the road.
Philly was tested the last two weeks with Kansas City and Buffalo. The Eagles are coming off a win over the Bills, but they looked far from the class of the NFL in that one.
The defense allowed over 500 yards of offense and while Jalen Hurts looked like the best player in the league for part of the game, he also turned it over twice.
If the Niners pass rush can get to and most importantly contain Hurts, they will be in good shape. The problem will be when the pressure comes and Hurts gets free in space.
San Francisco’s offense is clicking and should have no issues moving the ball on the Eagle defense.
This one should be a fun one to watch and a preview of things to come in January. The home-field edge will be too much for the Niners in this one.
My Pick: Eagles 31, 49ers 28
[Advice: The Eagles are getting 2.5 points at home, I see them covering that and getting the win outright. I see both offenses scoring enough points to go over the 47-point total.]
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) ◄►
Raiders Review
The Chiefs offense is starting to look awfully good again.Against the Raiders, Patrick Mahomes found his rhythm, Isaiah Pacheco was making plays out of the backfield as both a runner and receiver.
And for a change, it was not Travis Kelce doing all of the damage on the receiving end of Mahomes’ throws.
Rashee Rice was targeted 10 times ending up with eight receptions for 110 and a TD. Kelce still did his work but was only the target on seven passes coming up with six catches for 91 yards.
If the Chiefs can continue to get production like that from one of the wideouts it will only open things up more for Kelce and Pacheco should be able to find lanes to carve up opponents.
Defensively the Chiefs are still third in the NFL allowing just 16.5 points per game.
Green Bay Packers Preview
Sunday, December 3
5:20 pm PT, NBC
The Chiefs will be back on primetime for a Sunday Night road game against the Packers. Green Bay enters this one with a 5-6 mark on the season but has won their last two, including the Thanksgiving Day upset of Detroit.
The Pack are building momentum and look like a legitimate threat to make the playoffs. Following this one against the Chiefs the schedule gets much easier for Green Bay.
They have to feel that if they can steal this one they will have a leg up on the competition heading down the stretch. That makes them a dangerous team and the recent play of Jordan Love has also ignited them.
The Packers got to Jared Goff last week, but Mahomes is not as easy to take down and force into mistakes.
The Chiefs should be able to pick apart the Packers’ secondary. I look for a big day from the KC passing game—especially if they can continue to get production from the young receivers.
Obviously, December night games in Green Bay can be tricky, but the Chiefs’ defense is too solid even if the conditions hinder the offense.
My Pick: Chiefs 24, Packers 14
[Advice: The Chiefs are favored by 6.5 on the road and they should cover that. The total is set at 42.5, no matter what the weather looks like I see this one staying under that due to the KC defense, but weather could also help keep the total low. Early forecasts have the temps teetering near freezing with a chance of precipitation Sunday night in Green Bay.]
3. Denver Broncos (6-5) ▲1
Browns Review
The longest win streak in the NFL right now is five games, shared by the Eagles and Broncos. Following a 1-5 start Denver is right back in the chase for a playoff spot in the AFC.During their five-game win streak, the Broncos have picked up wins over the Bills and last week over the Browns.
Both of those teams are in the playoff chase with Denver and the head-to-head wins could be big at the end of the season.
The defense, which looked so bad during the opening six games of the season allowing 33.3 points per outing has allowed just 16.0 per game during the the win streak. Denver has created 15 takeaways in the last four games.
Houston Texans Preview
Sunday, December 3
10:00 am PT, CBS
The Texans are another team that is right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. CJ Stroud looks like he will be the runaway offensive rookie of the year.
Denver will once again need to force turnovers and limit the Texans’ chances on offense.
The interesting thing about Houston is in their last three wins they have turned it over seven times while they have just one giveaway in their last three losses.
Stroud is averaging 439.5 yards passing in the last four games. Denver has allowed just 191 yards per game through the air in the last five.
I look for Denver to keep the win streak going, but they will need more TDs than FGs in the scoring zone.
My Pick: Broncos 21, Texans 20
[Advice: The Broncos are getting 3.5 points on the road and will cover that and get the road win. The total stays under the 47 points on offer.]
4. Los Angeles Rams (5-6) ▲2
Cardinals Review
The return of Kyren Williams ignited this Rams offense as they picked up a win at Arizona for two consecutive Ws.Williams had 204 total scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 37-14 win. The Rams’ offense exploded for 228 yards on the ground against the Cardinals after averaging 93 rushing yards per game entering the contest.
That may have had something to do with the Cardinals’ run defense, but 200+ on the ground is a big number in the NFL.
If the Rams can get production on the ground, they could make a push for the playoffs as they sit just one game out at the moment.
Cleveland Browns Preview
Sunday, December 3
1:25 pm PT, FOX
Los Angeles is now 4-1 in the division and looks like a team that could make some noise down the stretch with some winnable games ahead of them.
Cleveland this week could prove to be a make-or-break game. The Browns’ defense is really good, but the offense is in shambles at the moment.
The Browns can’t seem to keep any QB healthy and could turn to Joe Flacco under center this week. The Browns defense can keep them in any game, but the Rams offense has enough weapons to put points on the board against them. And it may not take a lot of points to get a win.
My Pick: Rams 17, Browns 14
[Advice: L.A. is a four-point favorite at home, I think they will get the win but Cleveland covers the spread. The total points are set at 39 and I think it stays below that low number.]
5. Seattle Seahawks (6-5) ▼2
49ers Review
Against the 49ers last week, the offense was out of sorts. Geno Smith was only able to throw for 180 yards and took six sacks.DK Metcalf ended the game with two dropped passes and the line could not get anything going. Zach Charbonnet did have a 10-yard run, but if you take out that one, he averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on his 13 other carries.
This season Smith is playing more like he did in the first six years of his career than he did last year. Last week it could have been a product of an improved 49ers defense, but the Seahawks will need him to find his 2022 form.
Having lost their last two games, the Seahawks are now 6-5 riding a two-game skid and the next three games look brutal with Dallas, San Francisco, and Philadelphia lined up for them.
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Thursday, November 30
5:15 pm PT, Prime Video
To keep the playoff hopes alive, they need to get at least one of the next three. It is a brutal stretch, but if you want to be a playoff team you have to beat some other playoff teams at some point.
This week in Dallas may be the best opportunity of the three games.
The Cowboys were a bit up and down at the start of the season but have been on a run the last month and a half winning five of their last six with the lone loss at Philly.
In those six games, Dak Prescott is having perhaps the best run of his career with 18 TDs and just two interceptions during the stretch. The Cowboys’ last four wins have been by an average of 28.3 points per game.
As important as this one is, the Seahawks could be staring at a potential five-game slide and a 6-8 mark heading into the final three weeks of the season.
Dallas has been rolling and will continue to on Thursday night.
My Pick: Cowboys 34, Seahawks 17
[Advice: The Cowboys are a 9-point favorite, and they are playing too well right now not to cover that. The Over/Under is set at 46 and against the Dallas offense is looking too good right now not to take the over.]
6. Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) ▼1
Chiefs Review
The Raiders are looking much better under Antonio Peirce than they did in the opening eight games of the season. Especially on the offensive side of the ball.Their scoring is up from 15.8 points per game to 19.5. It is not a drastic improvement in that category, but they have looked crisper, even with a deficiency at the QB spot.
Josh Jacobs has seen a huge jump in his numbers in the last four weeks as he has averaged 90.1 yards per game after going for just 51 yards per game in the opening eight games.
The Raiders jumped out to a 14-point lead over Kansas City but could not maintain things. Maxx Crosby played through a knee injury, but the defensive stalwart needed a little more help.
Against the Chiefs, the play calling was better, and Aidan O’Connell had his first game with a QB rating of over 100.
BYE Week
The bye week comes at a good time for Las Vegas. They can get important pieces healthy, most notably Crosby.
They will need the leader of the defense fresh for the final six games of the regular season, or as fresh as he can be.
O’Connell will have to build on his success against Kansas City and develop more in the off-week ahead of a game against a vulnerable Vikings squad.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) ◄►
Ravens Review
The seat for Brandon Staley and Tom Telesco has got to be scorching hot at this point.The Chargers have collected just two playoff wins in the 11-year tenure of Telesco and have been an utter disappointment under Staley.
With their loss to Baltimore, the Chargers fell to 1-5 this season against teams that currently have a .500 record or better, the lone win being over 6-6 Minnesota.
Last season, L.A. finished with a 1-6 mark against teams with a winning record.
The Ravens are a very good team, and their defense is elite, but the Chargers could not get anything going on offense. They ran for just 86 yards with Justin Herbert accounting for 47 of them with 35 coming on one scamper.
The Chargers won the turnover battle 4-0 and could only come up with 10 points. This is not a good Chargers team at the moment and changes will no doubt be coming soon.
New England Patriots Preview
Sunday, December 3
10:00 am PT, CBS
The Chargers have struggled against teams with winning records this season. This week they will not have to worry about that from their opponent.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse than New England right now and their 2-9 record is indicative of that. The Patriots have all kinds of issues on the offensive side of the ball.
Mac Jones was replaced by Bailey Zappe in the loss to the Giants. They lost 10-7 to the Tommy DeVito-led Giants, that should sum things up.
If the Chargers can’t get a win in New England, then it could be the end of the line for Staley.
My Pick: Chargers 24, Patriots 10
[Advice: L.A. is favored by 5.5 points on the road. They should cover that, and the score will stay under 40.5.]
8. Arizona Cardinals (2-10) ◄►
Rams Review
Against the Rams, the Cardinals could not stop the run allowing big play after big play. Arizona allowed three runs of 20+ yards on the day as they gave up 228 yards on the ground.Offensively, the Cardinals could not get any consistency. Arizona opened the game with an explosive drive then the production was lost for the remainder of the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
Sunday, December 3
10:00 am PT, CBS
Arizona will travel to Pittsburgh and face an offense that, while not quite on the elite level, did look more explosive in their first game since parting ways with OC Matt Canada.
The Steelers’ new-look offense created a season-high six plays of 20+ yards against the Bengals last week. Stopping those plays proved to be problematic for Arizona last time out. This week it could be more of the same.
My Pick: Steelers 20, Cardinals 14
[Advice: Arizona should keep things close to the 5.5-point spread but the Steelers barely cover at home. The total stays below the 41 points being offered.]
-
2024 Top Week 14 NFL Performances by SuperWest Players
Our Stephen Vilardo summarizes the highlights of some standout alumni veterans and rookies - December 10, 2024 -
2024 Big Ten Football Championship Game Preview & Pick
Stephen Vilardo analyzes the title matchup and breaks down what each team must do to win - December 5, 2024 -
2024 Mountain West Football Title Game Preview & Pick
Stephen Vilardo analyzes the title matchup and breaks down what each team must do to win - December 4, 2024